2023-24 FPL Draft Preview: Mid-Round Forwards
Breaking down the mid-tiers at forward as Jiménez joins Fulham
Tuesday brought two moves that shift the middle of my forward ranks, with Wilfried Zaha confirmed at Galatasaray as Raúl Jiménez completed a £5m move to Fulham to replace the soon departing Aleksandar Mitrovic.
2023-24 FPL Draft Ranks
Zaha has been a staple for Crystal Palace and savvy fantasy managers since 2016. The end of the Wilf era at Selhurst Park included three 10+ goal campaigns plus back to back years when he scored 7g 8a and then 9g 3a - bursting into the scene as a high-upside attacker capable of delivering consistent points with his chance creation and take-ons. His departure will leave the door open for someone, but the question remains who? Neither Jean-Philippe Mateta (2 goals in 29 EPL appearances, but only two starts) or Jordan Ayew (4 goals, 3 assists in 38 appearances including 31 starts) are fit to grab the mantle. It’s much more likely that one, or more, of the FPL-rated midfielders picks up the baton including another step forward for Eberechi Eze, or a big jump for Michael Olise. Odsonne Edouard (F 42) hasn’t gotten a bump yet, and Jordan Ayew just entered the ranks at F 53. Despite being one of my perennial favorites the production JAyew is g+a dependent and too prone to post a 2pt outing for me to trust him as anything more than a bench streaming option. Today, we’re scouting further up the food chain.
Welcome back to FPL relevance, Raúl Jiménez. A scary brain injury left the Mexico international facing a potential early end to his career, but at age 32 he has been back and performing in England’s top flight for three years. Last season was a down year as he failed to score a league goal in 846’ (15 appearances) and he is now three full seasons remove from his last 10+ goal effort. He was omitted from the first version of the ranks amid concerns that he would leave Wolves and land outside the EPL but his final destination at Fulham is perhaps the best possible place he could have landed.
A year ago the Cottagers finished 10th in the Premier League, scoring 55 goals from a team xG of 46.2. One of the primary reasons their goal tally was so strong was Aleksandar Mitrović’s 14 goals (1 assists). In truth, his return should have been much better, with the Serbian striker converting only four of eight penalty kicks while scoring his 10 open play goals from 8.6 non-pen xG. Jiménez arrival would be strengthened by Willian remaining at Craven Cottage - the Brazilian has been rumored to be leaving after his one-year return to England netted five goals and five assists in 2,126’. The combination of Willian’s reported recent contract u-turn to remain with Fulham and manager Marco Silva, who himself rejected overtures from Saudi Arabia to remain with the current project. Turning 35 before the season starts, the F 38 rank it based on the belief he has one more 30-appearance season left in his legs.
Just ahead of Fulham’s new striker in my ranks are Tottenham’s Richarlison and Taiwo Awoniyi, Nottingham Forest’s 25 year old Nigeria international.
Now 26, Richarlison will be hoping to put 2022-23 in the rearview as quickly as possible. Blessed with ample opportunity, the Brazilian never quite clicked in the starting XI, and failed to deliver an impact as a substitute, finishing the season with one EPL goal and three assists. He played a total of 1,010’ (or the equivalent of 11 full 90’s) despite having made 12 starts plus a further 15 substitute appearances. In the four prior years with Everton, Richarlison had never failed to hit 10 g+a, with 10-13 goals in three of those four years and a total of 12 assists. The unfortunate side of his play is that he under-performed xG for only the second time in six EPL seasons. The upside is that he set career bests in shots created per 90’ (3.12) and his own Shots on Target/90’ (1.25). If he is able to solidify a regular starting position in Ange Postecoglou’s side, he should easily produce enough value to justify his rank as a top-end FWD3.
The opposite is true for Taiwo Awoniyi, who needs only replicate his fine form from 2022-23 under Steve Cooper to earn his place. I think that Awoniyi will build on last year, but the recent history of a single player managing to score 10+ goals when his team fails to broach 40 xG for the season is not good. Awoniyi will continue to compete for goals with Brennan Johnson (F 15) who made 33 starts last term. Added to this is Emmanuel Dennis, still only 25 who had 19 appearances (6 starts) and scored two goals with two assists. That the club ran a 4-3-3 eleven times - the most of any formation during the season - and Awoniyi featured heavily in that set-up, is another point in his favor. Similarly in the 3-4-2-1 he was used regularly. In other formations Awoniyi was not; the potential for Forest to be facing a relegation battle this season and Cooper scrambling to find the right fit, leaves Awoniyi a bit further down the list than he might deserve, but is also a nod to the outstanding goals + assists which are concentrated in Johnson and midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White.