2023-24 FPL Preview: New Names and Late Rounds
Top 200 Update + Quick Hit Scouting Reports on a Handful of Players
This is the last real week for Fantasy Premier League drafts as the season kicks-off on Friday! Teams continue to make move, shaking up their depth charts, and keeping us guessing. The questions hanging over some big names look to linger until after the season is underway and our drafts are a distant memory of hope.
The biggest name to arrive this week is unquestionably 21 year old Croatian right back Joško Gvardiol who joins Manchester City on a five-year deal. In one dynasty league I play in (if you’re unfamiliar, a dynasty league essentially means you own players on your roster forever unless you trade/drop them) I’ve Gvardiol on my reserve list for over a year waiting for this arrival. There’s good reason: in his age 20 season with RB Leipzig he was ever-present and has 52 Bundesliga starts to compliment his 30 starts and two league titles with
Oh noooos. Is he low-end on tackles and aerials won? You know who doesn’t remotely care? This guy. And Pep Guardiola. And you, when you realize that stuff is just icing on a moist, delicious bit of FPL cake.
The corresponding move here is, of course, Joao Cancelo out the doors once again. The 30 year old will not be heading back on loan, or back to Bayern (and certainly never to Bayern on loan again!) but has seen the sun officially set on his City career. If I was re-doing the Top 200 at this stage, Cancelo is off it entirely and Joško would be a top 12-15 defender, well worth a pick around pick 60. If you’re in a keeper or dynasty league, he could easily be a top 50 pick, or even inside the top 40 (scoring formats here would make a big difference, as would roster construction). I’m high on him and his ability to quickly integrate into Pep’s system, but this could be a hit or miss year with 10-point per game upside and 25+ starts easily in his sights.
Gvardiol is joined in the ranks by former Monaco player Axel Disasi, who signed with Chelsea. I’m doubling down on the FBREF scouting report here for two reasons. 1) damn, this is pretty.
2) Don’t make the mistake of conflating this with the similar Gvardiol chart, even though they’re both rated as playing CB. Poch’s system and Pep’s system are not the same and Pep will likely continue to use 3-4 CB in his tactics this term. The manager has already called out Gvardiol’s flexibility, primary “left-sided CB” as a positive and that he can (and will) play left fullback. Disasi is right-footed, can play RB but is expected to challenge Thiago Silva, now aged 39, for a primary starting spot alongside Levi Colwill. It would be quite a shock for him to regularly occupy the right back position, or be as involved up the wing as Gvardiol (at least, in my estimation, but with Reece James still on the roster, I feel pretty confident about it). FPL managers, and Pochettino, will rest a bit easier knowing Disasi can flip out to the right in coverage, and afford great opportunity for playing time.
I like Disasi because I trust Chelsea to be less porous this season, and believe the former Monaco player will prove solid in the air and ground, to accumulate enough points to have a high FPL floor. Longtime readers know I often like to refer to “alpha” center backs, the one who racks up the points while their partner plays tactically sound, but ultimately FPL-unfulfilling, positional football. Disasi has the makings of an alpha back and that makes him worth a DEF4 slot now, and possible streaming/starting from your bench early in the season.
Less impactful than the Cancelo exit, is the reported corresponding move at Stamford Bridge with Trevor Chabolah's name added to the long list of departures (and potential departures) in London. Cancelo has demonstrated significant FPL upside, even elite status for a run of years earlier in his City tenure, but recently hasn’t been up to snuff or even “playing in England” which is a very base standard to apply for FPL utility (sorry, Wales) (and no, this isn’t Michu erasure; we stan a 6-month king, a thing that was popular to say the last time a Swansea player was FPL relevant). Chabolah is “linked” with any number of EPL clubs and landing at some of them make him interesting as a late-round flyer as your DEF4/5 or 14-16th name on your roster. More likely, he goes undrafted and is one of a handful of names who is add/drop a few times between today and the end of September when starting XIs shape up, early injuries have taken their toll, and the Deadline Day acquisitions and early international break are through up-ending FPL draft rosters.
via redditor Plus-Inevitable1264
Will Kieffer Moore start?
This is a great question and I’m sure the answer is “Yes”. But not for Bournemouth. He’s already been linked with a move (loan) back to Cardiff City, and has demonstrated considerable skill at his primary position: Championship striker. There are a handful of players, notably headlined by Championship Fantasy Darling™ Matt Ritchie, who were truly elite at the second level but are not even worth a roster spot - much less starting - in the top flight. Unfortunately for Moore, this is his level. At age 30, I’m not expecting that to change, but it’s possible he lands somewhere where he can break the curse. I don’t think it’s happening with the Cherries given his inability to crack the XI in the season+ he’s already been there.
Did You Know? Arnaut Danjuma has signed on loan with Everton!
And…he’s already missed training after picking up a knock. The 26 year old attacker did basically nothing for Spurs last year, but has a 10-goal top flight campaign on the CV with Villarreal, and hit 15 goals with 7 assists for Bournemouth in the Championship back in 2020-21. That’s a solid haul and even better when you know it came in just 2,489’. If you want to give credit to the recently promoted big hitters, you’d do well to afford Danjuma that same deference and a bit of wish casting. He’s far from the only Toffee injured with two other presumptive starters - Dwight McNeil and James Tarkowski - also recently found on the trainer’s table and in the manager’s notes. The Liverpool Echo reports:
Asked whether he expected the Villarreal loanee to be fit for next weekend, he said: “I doubt it. He will be fit but I doubt he will be fit, fit if that makes sense as in getting out there when the whistle blows.”
Dyche has another injury concern after James Tarkowski limped off during the second half of the win over Sporting. The centre back, a figurehead for the team and the captain in the absence of Seamus Coleman, was in clear pain as he received treatment for what appeared to be an issue with his left knee. The 30-year-old’s injury will be assessed but Dyche is hopeful it is not serious, stating: “He's just got a knock, we think.”
That’s not great. Apart from Dyche butchering the English language like his centerbacks butcher opposition ankles, these three injuries throw the starting XI into a bit of disarray. Most of the limited fantasy value on bottom half sides comes from players having regular playing time while occupying key roles that drive fantasy value; injuries to those players in the weeks before the transfer deadline make FPL manager roster decisions harder - do you keep Danjuma on the roster or drop him for a new addition or early season performer? Given Everton’s recent struggles to score, it would be hard to justify in 10-team and smaller leagues.
Harry Kane: Still Probably A Tottenham Player When You’re Reading This
Ultimatums have been issued. Maximum bids have been submitted. Demands have been publicized. House are reportedly being purchased. Spurs have lined up a player who doesn’t want to have to live up to the expectation of replacing a 30-goal scorer. Other things have probably also happened. I’m bored.
This saga has all the makings of a legacy sequel made 17 years after the original movies, featuring a cast of characters less likeable than unholy offspring of Carrie Bradshaw and Ross Geller. Should he go? Yes! It’s a truck load of money and a team that is a striker shy of being a formidable challenger for a Champions League. Should they sell? Yes! It’s a truck load of money, keeping him isn’t going to net anything more than an outside shot at 4th place and he’ll leave for free next summer. Should you draft him? F&^#!?!!? I mean, I guess so? The world is still waiting for Daniel Levy to make a rationale decision, but he doesn’t seem built for that. I’m not knocking the whole “hold out for your price” position; I do not actually believe that a bid meeting Levy’s original asking price would have been accepted.
Kane is falling into the second (or even third) round, of 10- and 12-team drafts. In smaller leagues where there are more top players on each team you can absorb a hit by having a player depart, but if you’re in a 12-team league its harder to risk one of your limited top choices on a player who may depart by September 1. The England hitman continues to train and play for Spurs this summer, allowing the rumors to continue to build around him unabated. His new manager has been similarly unflappable in the face of losing his talisman.
"Yeah, I don't think that (professionalism) has ever been in question about Harry. His whole career he has shown that. He was good today and the majority of our stuff was fairly positive. Obviously still got a fair few things to work on. I am just planning for preparing the team for Tuesday and then we'll work our way into Brentford for next week. I haven't even thought about who will start that game. It is about trying to have as many players ready for that fixture as possible and we've still got guys coming in.” -Ange Postecoglou
There has been substantially better news for Spurs on the incoming transfers front, with Wolfsburg’s Micky van de Ven and Rosario Central’s 20 year old (well, he’s a lot closer to 20 than he is….) forward Alejo Veliz set to be unveiled in coming days. In his age 19 season, Veliz hit 11 league goals in Argentina’s top flight and added three goals for his home nation in the Under-20 World Cup. It’s rather unlikely he would be straight into the XI, but a Kane departure moves everyone up the pecking order and the Premier League has seen a number of 21-year-old and younger players hit the top of the scoring tables for top half teams. I don’t see Veliz making enough starts to justify a roster spot, but he’s on my list of streamable forwards in a weak class.
Meanwhile, 22 year old van de Ven made 33 Bundesliga starts last term, with a goal and an assist. Spurs have shaken up the roster this summer - a Kane departure would certainly result in the biggest upheaval since the departure of Gareth Bale to the PGA - primarily by additions. Subtractions are certainly still to come, whether it is Kane or others (or both), which will help make the FPL picture a bit more clear including the role van de Ven will play.
Late Rounds Getting Thinner
Deniz Undav has moved on loan from Brighton to VfB Stuttgart.
This is a good move from Brighton for the player; if he had no path with his parent club this offers him a clear path to regular minutes and progression. It may be that he cannot evolve sufficiently to turn 25 goals with Royale Union Saint-Gilloise into even 10 goals with a Premier League side, but he had 54 goals and 24 assists in the three seasons prior to joining Brighton. And he did manage five EPL goals in 628’ last season. Had he been given the window, I do think he could have claimed a number of starts and threatened double-figures in goals or goals + assists. As it is, his departure strips an upside play from the later rounds at the most thin position.
At this point, managers would likely do best to evaluate their rosters and make a dedicated choice to build at either three forwards or five forwards on their roster with a goal of shifting focus following the transfer deadline. The pool of midfield rated players is top-heavy with a significant number of questions in the 12-30 range; that is more beneficial to owners willing to invest time in August to build a deep bench of upside plays with a degree of coldness for mid-to-late round picks. Perhaps more than any other recent season, this year it will pay to have no sacred cows or overvalue your own draft picks.
Questions? Leave them here!