2023-24 FPL Preview: The Underachievers
Which players under-performed their 2022-23 Premier League expectations?
In the nearly two decades that I’ve been writing about fantasy sports, including 15 years covering fantasy Premier League across a number of platforms, for a number of different publications on both sides of the Atlantic, the game has changed. The proliferation of statistics like expected goals (xG) and assists (xA), progressive passing data, shot creation metrics, heat maps, passing and touch counts and more have handed FPL managers and writers a surfeit of information that can be overwhelming if you’re trying to process it all, and counter-productive if you only look at a single data point without context.
For today’s purposes we’re going to look at a handful of players who specifically under-performed relative to their individual expected goals or assists, with all data via FBREF provided by OPTA, the same source that most (if not all) FPL platforms that you play also utilize for scoring decisions.
And a couple quick notes at the top. The ability to routinely over-perform your expected goals has been proved by some people smarter than me, with varying degrees of control on over-performance (or under-performance) documented. When assessing Erling Haaland’s 23.1 non-penalty xG against 29 non-penalty goals, it’s important to note that he has done this in every single one of his last four full seasons.
Should you discount Haaland’s scoring feats when drafting him this season? I wouldn’t. His situation hasn’t changed - his role, the types of shots he takes, the location of the service he receives, the playing time he’s expected to earn are all in line. If anything, this data should reinforce that Haaland is as good as advertised and should see his name come off the board within the first three picks of nearly every draft.
On the other side of the coin is Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus who has under-performed his non-penalty xG by nine full goals over the last five seasons, and with the exception of scoring nine goals from 8.7 xG in 2020-21 has not out-performed his expected goals since 2017-18. Either he’s one of the unluckiest players in the League, or he is a less good finisher than an average striker/unluckier/takes bad shots from otherwise “good” positions/takes a high volume of bad/low xG shots that increase his volume of xG while not affording a high likelihood of converting at an average rate. This data doesn’t help us understand if that’s because he has poor shot selection, finishing, or service received (or some combination of all three), but his career to date suggests you should put a value on him that is in line with, or slightly below, his expected performance.
Kai Havertz move from Chelsea to Arsenal gives Mikel Arteta another potent attacking option. Kai posted 10.1 n-pxG and scored six non-penalty goals in 2,569’ in his final EPL season with Chelsea. While he had slightly under-performed in his first two seasons at Stamford Bridge (8g from 8.7 xG in 2020-21) he was exceptionally consistent at over-performing his expected goals in his two full seasons with Bayern Leverkusen. I have both Havertz and Gabi Jesus as top 12 options at forward currently, and will likely end up with Havertz on many of my teams as I rate him higher than most. 25 goals from 18 xG across his final two years in Germany should offer some glimpse into his ability and he is still just 24 with a Champions League winning goal on the C.V.
He’s not rated a forward in most draft FPL games, but Jarrod Bowen is going to be leaned on heavily to deliver the goals in David Moyes’ side this season. He might be lined up in midfield in summer friendlies, but Divin Mubama is 18 years old and Danny Ings plays like he’s 137 years old and neither is going to be earning 30 starts up front for the Hammers in 2023-24. 33 year old Michail Antonio is likely to depart after eight years with the club leaving Moyes with Ings, Mubama, Bowen and Gianluca Scamacca as the forwards on the roster (I love Said Benrahma, but the man is not a center forward and his creativity is going to be sorely needed in a midfield now short one Declan Rice. For those keeping score at home that leaves them with /checks notes/ zero Declans Rice, which is insufficient for Premier League survival). Bowen scored six EPL goals, one coming from his two attempted penalty kicks, from nine xG (and five non-penalties from 7.8 n-pxG). He’s regularly at or over expected numbers, and I fully expect him both to be there this season and run his tally to double-figures for a second time in three seasons.
Good Numbers, Poor Minutes
There is one type of under-performance I am always happy to see which is based on a players minutes. When a player - particularly an attacking player - has demonstrated high production on a per 90 minute basis, but that hasn’t translated into the big numbers that catch your eye. We’ve already highlighted Haaland’s big 2022-23 but did you know that his 0.92 non-pen xG+xA/90 (basically he was expected to score or assist a goal every 98’) was not the best among all qualified players last season? That honor belong to Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez who nipped him by the slimmest of margins (0.93). Nunez’s nine goals, three assists don’t stand out in the crowd, finishing third on his own team in goals and seventh in assists. Of course, he only played 1,695’; as he solidifies his hold on a starting spot in Jurgen Klopp’s XI, his counting stats will quickly rise. He was so dominant that his 0.93 non-pen xG+xA/90’ was the same as teammates Cody Gakpo (0.55) and Luis Diaz (0.36), combined. Darwin also under-performed his xG, scoring nine goals from 12.1 xG - big things are coming this season.
Kelechi Iheanacho is this season’s Let Him Cook poster boy. The forward was relegated with Leicester in 2022-23, not for his own effort which amounted to five goals and five assists in 1,127’. This wasn’t a case of being injury hampered or joining a club late - Kelechi made 28 appearances in the EPL for the Foxes but was limited to just 11 starts and one full 90’ outing which came in a 0-1 loss to Southampton. In all, the Nigeria international scored 4/5 goals and recorded 4/5 assists in matches he started, making his limited starts all the more frustrating. Rumored to be joining Everton, if he actually signs with a Premier League club he instantly vaults from his current ranking of F 31 into the top 24. That’s correct, I’m so high on his upside and confident he lands with an EPL club, he is the only currently ranked player who isn’t on an EPL roster.
I didn’t rank him at age 19, but Julio César Enciso is listed in the forward section of the ranks under the Dynasty sidebar. Brighton’s teen striker had 806’ last season resulting in 0.64 non-penalty xG+xA/90’ which was in line with James Maddison (0.65) and Leandro Trossard (0.64) and a nudge ahead of Roberto Firmino and Marcus Rashford (0.59). Enciso is likely to deputize for 31 year old Danny Welbeck who could have made the above list of under-performers - he scored six times from 9.4 xG in 2022-23 - because of his notable injury history and inability to play a full ninety. Despite making 21 starts and a further 10 substitute appearances, he only amassed 1,854’. It’s perhaps unfair to think Welbeck would have scored the full compliment of nine, a tally he has not reached since 2013-14 with Manchester City. He’s hit six in three seasons on the bounce and is a textbook definition of a rotation FWD3 in a 12-team league.
Have a topic you’d like to see covered this summer? Leave it in the comments.