Break, International Break
Nothing like using a break to end the break that started at the last break
Break. Ok, now that that runner is out of my system let’s get down to business. The specific business we’re getting down to is the evaluation of three data sets so we are best positioned for when Premier League action resumes this weekend.
Today we’re covering under-performing stars to start the year, strength of schedule for the next five game weeks which takes up through November, and a scouting the FPL draft potential of a couple of players based on the early season, small-sample-size expected data.
A quick aside - five years ago I’d have been slaughtered by my editor(s) for writing that opening paragraph. Not only does it provide zero actual value to you, dear reader, it is awash with negative SEO value. Anyway, time marches on which is a gorgeous segue into the Liverpool defense and abject fantasy failure that unit has become.
Under-Performing Stars
The reimagined Reds of Jurgen Klopp still boast Virgil van Dijk, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson (when healthy!), anchored by arguably the best GK currently walking planet earth. But the unit does not function at the same elite level in any phase of the game leaving FPL draft owners holding assets that have not just failed to reach potential, but collectively Liverpool have only one (1) clean sheet in their opening eight matches and only Robertson hasn’t been a negative drag on your roster.
By far, the biggest disappointment in this squad is Alexander-Arnold. Trent has played in six of eight matches, starting five but making it 90’ only twice. More than half of the 42 points he’s scored this season came in the 3-0 win over Aston Villa. In that match, we got vintage TA-A with five key passes, an assist and a clean sheet all in 70’ of action. His 26 FPL draft points were a solid haul; his 5 KP are exactly half of his 10 KP this season. Without a goal, and with only one assist in Liverpool’s opening eight matches, this is arguably the worst Trent has ever played looks to be the best time to try to buy him on the cheap. I think that to make this work it needs to be really cheap.
Through 420’ of EPL action this season he has 0.9 xGA (0.6 xA), level with VvD for 5th in the side but it’s the massive gap between the defenders and the midfielders and front three that shows how the change in personnel - and affiliated change in tactics due to those personnel shifts - have impacted Alexander-Arnold’s FPL value. What’s odd is that his other stats like shots (5 shots, 2 on target), passing and shot creating actions (4.5/90’ better than his recorded career total of 4 and higher than last season’s 3.82) all suggest he is otherwise still as involved in the final third. Where he has significantly reduced the fantasy value is in the expected value of those passes with his xA of 0.6. I can’t believe I’m writing that Trent *is not* a buy low target, but his 7 points per game are not a bad total for a regular starter so if this is your preferred move then you need to be looking at another player in the potential 30-50 range. That’s players like Alfie Doughty, Marcus Rashford or Bruno Guimarães and then you’re hoping he’s back among the goal assists ASAP.
Directly below Trent in the overall scoring this term is Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus. The injury issues coming into the season have limited Arsenal’s Brazilian striker to six EPL appearances (three of those were 1’, 13’ and 23’) and he has one goal, one assist and four key passes on the year. With back-to-back 90’ outings (albeit without much to boast about in the 1-0 win over Man City in which he booked just 3.5 points for your FPL side), the health appears to be there as does the continued trust of manager Miguel Arteta.
Here’s the word of caution on Gabby: what is his career high in league minutes played? If you guessed 2,316’ for Palmeiras in 2016 congratulations you’ve been paying attention. While I like him as a buy low and his 41.5 FPL draft points in 297’ tracks nicely with his 335 points in 2,064’ last season - that is also his ceiling and you need to have cover in your squad for the matches when he missed out (at least 10 games on average or about 8 more this term) and you’ll have to deal with 4-5 more substitute appearances. Top-end forwards have been under-performing across the board with Moussa Diaby (10th) and Carlton Morris (11th) “every week starters” despite being low-ceiling, goal dependent options (see also: Yoane Wissa, Odsonne Edouard and Taiwo Awoniyi who all are within the top 15 at their position).
Get on the phone or block the caller? It’s all about your needs but I’m not giving up someone like Morgan Gibbs-White (9.88 ppg) or Pascal Gross to acquire him; I would part company with Vladamir Coufal, the aforementioned Bruno Guimarães or Wissa plus another piece to shore-up the front line. Asking for more than that presumes the 26 year old can stay on the field - something he’s never done.
One last name to think on is Manchester City’s new defensive diamond, Josko Gvardiol. He has been a mess. Ranked outside the top 125 outfield players in total points, with only two 10+ point outings which corresponded with City’s two league clean sheets. The alarming bit is that his two matches with multiple key passes (2 KP each at the Blades and Hammers) netted a collective total of 8.5 points. The reason? He’s doing fuck all else. That isn’t good and I don’t see the 21 year old Croatia international being more involved in the attack than he was across the last two seasons with RB Leipzig. In those two years he had three goals and two assists across 59 appearances. This summer I fully believed that he could be integrated into the attack more consistently - arguably the Sheffield Utd and West Ham matches demonstrate this as well - but the lack of final product and absence of actions accumulating sufficient fantasy floor means he’s one to consider selling ahead of a run unlikely to produce many clean sheets: Brighton, Man Utd, the Cherries, Chelsea and Liverpool.
Strength of Schedule
The next five game weeks take place between this Saturday (21 October) and the end of November (25-27 Nov). That’s a reasonable schedule that of course includes some domestic cup matches in European play, but after GW13, the schedule turns up the intensity: three GW will be played between 2 Dec - 9 Dec with another three games crammed into 23-30 December. There are some very clear winners and losers over this stretch with two of the top four clubs in the table facing incredibly soft schedules, starting with table-toppers Tottenham.
Spurs next five line up in traditional Muntz formation (Ha-Ha!) with Fulham (H) followed by Palace, Chelsea, Wolves and Villa. The Cottagers (15.3 xG allowed), Wolves (14.9) and Villans (13.0) are all allowing greater than 1.5 expected goals against handing a nice boost to a Spurs’ attack which has scored 16 goals in their opening eight. While the club has unquestionably been led by Son Heung-min (6g, 0a) and James Maddison (2g, 5a), what makes this team a solid fantasy value T-to-B is that they contribute nearly as many team assists (14) as goals (16) helping spread the value.
In all, eight different players have scored and seven different players have added an assist or more with 12 players in total managing a goal or assist including every field player except defensive midfield trio Oliver Skipp, Yves Bissouma and Pierre Højbjerg. The one player I am anxiously watching right now is new boy Brennan Johnson who has made two appearances (one EPL start) for 73’ without a goal or assist. Johnson had eight goals and three assists in 2,934’ (38 appearances) for Forest last season, but has been relegated to second-fiddle status behind Richarlison and Manor Solomon. Solomon underwent surgery on his knee meniscus and isn’t coming back until 2024 (and maybe not even early in 2024) while Brenna is recovering from a thigh injury. Solomon had 5 EPL appearances (2 starts) and 200’ of action, so his absence does free up significant minutes and Johnson needs to capitalize during this next stretch to have rest of season value.
Chasing Spurs, 4th place Liverpool will want to take all 12 points leading up to their GW13 clash with Manchester City. The schedule before that falls nicely: Everton (H), Forest (H), Luton (a), and Brentford (H). The Reds will be without injured Andy Robertson (shoulder) making Konstantinos Tsimikas an easy add across the board. The Greek left back fills in for LFC’s third most valuable FPL asset this season (Salah, Szoboszlai) and has capably deputized for him in the past. You couldn’t ask for a better run, yet he’s somehow rostered in fewer than 5% of FT leagues right now. Go grab him for free.
Klopp also welcomes back Diogo Jota from a one-match suspension (yellow cards) and will be evaluating Cody Gakpo who exited the 2-1 loss to Spurs with a potentially serious knee injury. Just two players - Mohamed Salah (5g, 4a) and Darwin Núñez (3g, 2a) have contributed more than 2 g+a this season. While both of those forwards could feast in the coming four matches, I’m watching to see if this is when Dominik Szoboszlai, TA-A and Luis Diaz finally get right. There are also strong streaming value plays for both Wataru Endo (4%), Harvey Elliott (14%) and Ryan Gravenberch (34%) so watching the early return hosting Everton on Saturday can pay quick dividends and get your team rolling this weekend.
This stretch of games will also prove a testing ground for both Chelsea and Luton. While these two clubs aren’t frequently in the same conversation it’s fair to say the Blues (home to Arsenal and Brentford, followed by Spurs (a), City (H) and Newcastle (a)) are playing for their season between now and Christmas. Defender Levi Colwill (66 points, 8.25/game) is the highest scoring Chelsea player this season and still outside the top 60 in total scoring in the EPL. He’s followed quickly by Conor Gallagher and GK Robert Sanchez. Gallagher is the Chelsea player I most want to own in these challenging times, with six full 90’ and 5/8 outings netting 7.5+ points with a high water mark of 13 coming in the 4-1 win over Burnley just before the break. Specifically, I’m looking to see him more involved in the attack with six straight matches with a key pass, but only one (1) in each a single assist for his troubles.
The Blues small sample sizes don’t make for good reading ahead of a treacherous stretch with Nicolas Jackson (2g, 0a in 554’ from 4.1 xG, 0.5 xGA) the poster boy for an under-performing team that sits 11th in the table despite being the 3rd best defense in the league by expected goals allowed (8.1). While I might not be buying on Jackson with injured star Christopher Nkunku still targeting a return to action around the new year, I am slowly getting more bullish on Enzo Fernández who has 2.2 xG and 1.1 xGA without notching a goal or assist. Those aren’t great numbers, but if you added a couple goals and an assist to Enzo’s 6.2 points per game, coupled with his 8/8 starts, you have a serviceable MID3 and that is nothing to ignore. I expect his, and most every Chelsea player’s, value craters further during this run and I’d happily scoop up Mauricio Pochettino’s every-week starters to slot into my lineup for the back 2/3 of the season.
Luton, meanwhile, are facing all but certain relegation if they can’t take something from a five-match run that includes trips to Forest and Villa before hosting LFC. It does not get easier from there with a match at Old Trafford followed by Crystal Palace visiting Kenilworth Road. The Eagles are 2-1-1 in four road matches this year highlighted by a pair of 1-0 away wins over Manchester United and Sheffield United.
At this point in the season the Hatters boast one player - Alfie Doughty - that I’m regularly starting. I know Carlton Morris is highlighted above and he remains a viable FWD2/3, but I can only start him if I accept that the boom/bust fantasy profile does not include the 20+ point upside you’ll get from a player who can score multiple goals or create multiple chances in any given match.
Small Sample Size Superstars
Let’s look at the Michus the Roque Santa Cruzs the Ademola Lookmans. Look, man, we know some of these player aren’t going to be season-long stars but writing off players who are getting opportunity, a bit lucky or a riding an individual or collective hot stream is something you do at your own peril.
Erling Haaland, Mo Salah and Joachim Andersen. Who are three players that have each recorded three 20+ point FPL outings this season, Ken? The Palace defender got started early with a CS-aided 23.5pt haul on opening day and followed it up with 34.75 in a 1-1 draw against Brentford where he scored. While his two matches with goals standout, what I like is his strong scoring from the other categories coupled with Palace’s team approach to defense. Four clean sheets to open the season may not result in 19 clean sheets for the season, but as a team they’ve allowed only seven goals from 10.6 xG while Andersen and fellow defender Tyrick Mitchell have both played every minute of the year. He is a perfect example of a ‘buy high’ when he’s over-valued; no one reasonably thinks they’ll get actual value for him, and edging for closer to pre-season value in a potential swap will still net solid profit over the final 31 games this year.
Pervis Estupiñán is currently dealing with recovery from a muscle injury suffered in Brighton’s shock/fluke 6-1 loss to Aston Villa. He scored an own goal in that one which helps reduce his total scoring for the season to just 62.75 points - outside the top 50 overall - while leaving his per match scoring over 10pts. But the standout stat for the Seagulls’ defender is that he sits fourth in the EPL in expected goals assisted (2.8 xGA). The Ecuador international is slated for another couple weeks on the sidelines and I’m using this as the time to buy.
There is a reason the fullback was a highly touted coming into the year after recording 8.3 PPG on 31 starts a year ago. Even if all he did after the injury was post a similar 8.3 PPG for the rest of the season, he would be well worth acquiring at a discount during his injury absence, but the small sample size on xGA certainly points to him being a fully integrated part of Roberto De Zerbi’s flowing attack.
Two other players inside the top 10 in xGA that are worth evaluating are Aston Villa’s Moussa Diaby and Amadou Onana. Onana - 0g, 0a - is particularly interesting because he’s got nothing in the counting stats but still sits just outside the top 100 in total scoring with 51 points and 6.38 PPG. I do not have much faith in Everton, but Onana has already shown much improved attacking output over his debut season in England. Last year he made 29 starts with 1g, 2a from 3.0 xA and 2.6 xGA - yeah, the Toffees were trash last year and look just as bad this year, but that is still a LOT of bad luck/unfulfilled potential. The Belgium international is a true defensive midfielder but any kind of attacking output makes him a solid DEF4 with DEF3 upside in 12-team leagues.
The last name for today is Anthony Elanga. The 21 year old Sweden international has made only two starts this season but is 5th in shots on target/90’ this season with 1.81 in his 298’. That’s better than Son, Darwin and Julián Álvarez but without the immediate opportunity for starts. With a goal and an assist already on the ledger for his newest club, and with Forest needing a finisher for Morgan Gibbs-White end product, a partner for Taiwo Awoniyi and a replacement for Brennan Johnson it seems almost too simple to find them all in one person. As Chris Wood is not the answer and Awoniyi is possibly out for a few matches more, the upcoming games against Luton (H), Liverpool (a) and Villa (H) offer a path for Elgana to make his mark.
Wait, wait, there’s one more.
And one fun table/list. The top 10 in Progressive Carries this season are:
Dejan Kulusevski (51), Kaoru Mitoma (47), Raheem Sterling (45), Pedro Neto (42), Bukayo Saka (38), Marcus Rashford (36), Jeremy Doku (35), Anthony Gordon (35), Luca Koleosho and Chiedozie Ogbene (31). That doesn’t directly impact ye olde fantasy scoring - sorry, Hatem Ben Arfa and Adel Taarabt - but it does show which players are getting time with and on the ball and have the trust (or utter infallibility of belief in their own abilities) to drive the ball forward.
And now for something completely different…
A Premier League match in Andy’s bedroom abeg.