Deadline Day Deals

Plenty of names (too many, tbf) shift shirts before Transfer Window ends

It was an exciting end to the transfer window on 1 September, with Premier League clubs scrambling to firm up squads for the already-underway-yet-still campaign ahead. Despite the names who moved, there were three players who did not that merit mention at the top: Kelechi Iheanacho, Lucas Paqueta and João Palhinha.

The noise on Paqueta remains that a suspension is looming. The Hammers can ill afford to lose the dynamic playmaker in the middle of the pitch, but when that eventuality arrives they will have Mohammed Kudus to soften the blow.

João Palhinha’s move to Bayern Munich was thought by many to be a done deal, with the midfielder in Munich for a medical on Deadline Day, did the media duties and watched as Fulham were unable to secure a replacement on the shortest of notice.

The midfielder’s deal was left so late that when it collapsed, he was not able to return to Fulham in time for the Saturday kick off against Manchester City. This one collapsing may be unfortunate for the player, but for FPL managers and the club alike retaining Palhinha in England is a windfall. Leave your shopping late and this is where you end up; minimal impact on Munich except for Tuchel to toss all the many gilded toys from the poshest of prams as his side chase a 94th straight Bundesliga title. Under seven points per match for Palhinha in the early going but

Meanwhile my biggest disappointment is that Iheanacho did not return to the EPL. He’d been linked with more than 25% of the clubs in the top flight across the summer and been quoted at a very reasonable twenty million. Even the local press seemed shocked to see his name still on the books at the King Power.

These attributes should have seen Premier League clubs come calling for Iheanacho the moment City dropped down a division, particularly with only one year left on his contract. But talk of Nottingham Forest and Everton interest quickly subsided and it all went quiet until clubs like Crystal Palace, Wolves, and West Ham emerged as potential suitors over the past week.

Offers may be made on deadline day and while it would take a bid close to £20m to get City to part with Iheanacho, the club’s supporters, and maybe even Maresca, will hope that doesn’t tempt them.

Those offers never materialized, or if they did the Foxes shot them down with Kloppian force (a level of force Klopp himself will need to muster daily for the next five sleeps). This one hurts, as several clubs could have had Kelechi arrive and slot directly into their starting XI. The Foxes chances of promotion are better today, but the FPL draft world is short one live-wire attacking option.

There was one other possible rabbit-hatting which was undone by the home club declining the proposed terms.

Ekitike to either West Ham or Crystal Palace, without a corresponding exit, would have further complicated the competition for minutes at positions where we’d all prefer there was clarity and consistency. The 21 year old was never a nailed-on starter for either of the linked clubs but would certainly have been on-hand to steal starts and second-half minutes, reducing the attacking upside of players like Michail Antonio, Mohammed Kudus and Odsonne Édouard.

The Transfers That Actually Happened

Two moderate-sized moves between the sticks both involved Dean Henderson, directly or otherwise. The Manchester United keeper moved to Crystal Palace and not Nottingham Forest where he made 18 starts on loan last season. Incumbent Sam Johnstone was still the starter with Henderson on the bench in the Eagles 3-2 home win over Wolves on Sunday. Johnstone himself was linked with a possible move to Wolves, and competition with Jose Sa for the No. 1 shirt, but he and the club elected to retain him in his current kit and role.

The corresponding decision not to re-sign Henderson was already made by Forest who have brought in both Matt Turner from Arsenal and Odysseas Vlachodimos from Benfica. Turner was not pressed much in Forest’s 0-1 away win at Stamford Bridge over the weekend and has been one of the 5-6 best FPL GK in the early days with double-digit hauls against Chelsea and Man United in back-to-back matches. I’m certainly not using a waiver claim on a GK, but if I own Johnstone or Turner, I am carefully watching news over the international break and ready to add/drop before opening kicks when Premier League action resumes.

Iwobi to Fulham and Brennan Johnson to Spurs

Two of the biggest moves of the window were intra-league transfers. In a shock move, relegation-battling Everton saw fit to sell arguably their best player Alex Iwobi to Fulham. The Cottagers were busy on deadline day, failing to secure a replacement for Palhinha but making two strong additions. 8.8 points per match a year ago, better this year in a much, much smaller sample, and a move to a club with a significantly better attacking identify. There’s nothing in Iwobi’s profile that suggests he can’t earn a spot in Marco Silva’s side; the gaffer certainly believes in him as he’s signed him twice in four seasons. With Palhinha staying, and Andreas Pereira firmly in the fold, Silva has an impressive midfield trio which could relegate Tom Cairney and Harrison Reed to the reserves.

I’ve put Iwobi ahead of the next fella just so he doesn’t get lost in the mix; he’s not available anywhere but I’d be targeting him in a trade as a MID3 if his owner is concerned about competition or change in role. Everton’s 2022-23 Players’s Player of the Year deserves to be an every-week starter in the EPL and in any FPL draft league with 8+ teams.

My top deadline day move is Spurs acquisition of Brennan Johnson. I’ve got him as a top 15 forward the rest of the way and opening up the path for Son, Maddison and Kulusevski to be absolute FPL draft units the whole season. The five-goal mauling of the Clarets came without him, and with Son ostensibly set as the lone striker; Son back on the left wing, where he is free to inter-change with Johnson or Kulu, will make Spurs’ front four a nightmare for all but the most disciplined defensive sides. At 5’10” and 160lbs he’s never going to be confused for Harry Kane, but the 22 year old’s attacking skill is perfect blend for Ange Postecoglou’s attacking tactics.

Music on this one needs a bit of work; the skill on display does not. 16 goals with 10 assists in the Championship promotion campaign as a 20-year-old set the stage and last term he was as good as advertised with eight goals (8.3 xG) and three assists (3.2x xA) for a side that managed just 38 goals all year. FT is currently claiming he is only 85% rostered despite a) being drafted in 93% of leagues AND b) seeing +9.3% ownership week over week. Not sure how that makes any sense, but he should be 100% owned and will quickly be first-choice. 15 g+a is a reasonable floor to expect as he should supplant Richarlison immediately after the international break. Last term only Kane (30+3) and Son (10+6) hit double-figures in goals + assists but I expect all of Spurs’ front four to achieve that milestone this season in a far more balanced, dynamic attack.

Players That Actually Matter

In no particular order Cameron Archer, Neal Maupay, and James McAtee all moved Premier League clubs before the window closed. My love of Maupay is well known, so may as well start with the French hitman. When last seen in Brentford, Maupay was scoring at will, netting 25 times in the Championship with eight assists before his move to Brighton. With the Gulls it was less of the same, scoring 10 / 8 / 8 EPL goals in his three full seasons and significantly under-performing his expected stats. In those same seasons his xG was 13.4 / 13.2 / 8.7. That amounts to 26 goals from 35.3 xG or -9.3 goals which is among the very worst for players with qualifying minutes. The under-performance was initially a reason to like Maupay as some level could be chalked-off as poor luck. After three straight seasons under-performing at the top level, it is perhaps more likely that Championship is where he belongs. Everything at Everton was garbage and Maupay himself has said he feels he’s coming home; that level of comfort is worth something.

This is a team with suspended Ivan Toney waiting in the wings and Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa leading the line for Thomas Frank's side in his absence. The two have been firing early with Mbeumo netting fours times in four games and Wissa adding two more. Maupay is a streaming FWD3/4 and I only want to add him in 12-team+ leagues or where I’m worried about losing Wissa’s minutes and need the cover.

Despite starting with Maupay, he’s some distance behind Cameron Archer in Rest of Season (ROS) value. Archer arrived from Aston Villa and immediately led the Blades to a 2-2 draw, scoring the first and causing a Jordan Pickford own goal for the second. There is no competition for playing time, he’s already shown instinctive link-up play with Oli McBurnie and Sheffield will be reliant on their front duo getting maximum minutes this season. That makes Archer a FWD2 at the low-end. He’s not inside the top 20 forwards but fits somewhere into the 21-28 range depending on your comfort with taking 10 matches where he is simply stifled. Free Agent Acquisition Bids (FAAB) can afford to be a bit more generous here knowing your acquiring a starter and I’d go as high as 25% of my total budget if I needed a FWD2.

Last in this cohort is another returning hero, with young midfielder James McAtee (if you’re my age, don’t accidentally use Jason McAteer’s stats) who has moved back to Sheffield United after helping guide the club to promotion on loan from Man City. A year ago in the Championship he hit nine goals and three assists in 1,898’ (you read that right) coming in his 21 starts. While the Blades didn’t overhaul the squad like fellow promotion side Nottingham Forest, the additions they did make are impact signing. McAtee should see significant time in the midfield where he profiles as a MID4 in the top flight; there is significant upside here in keeper or dynasty leagues but if you play in a more traditional 8- or 10-team redraft league, he’s worth a mid-level waiver claim (assuming he wasn’t owned while sitting in City’s reserves) or 6-9% of your FAAB budget.

Mohammed Kudus, Timothy Castagne, Carlos Belaba, Beto, Ansu Fati, Fodé Ballo-Touré, and Sofyan Amrabat are in the Premier League following transfers from outside England’s top flight.

Mohammed Kudus may have been on Friday waivers in your league but if he’s still available there is no reason not to bid. His presence on the bench and substitute appearance all fit nicely with the established narrative that he is joining David Moyes’ side to immediately grab a significant share of the attacking minutes. He’s a WW1 candidate and worth up to 40% of your FAAB budget, especially if you’re in need of a dynamic playmaker with boom/bust potential who can deliver the occasional 30+ point performance.

Whew - I think we need a break. So now for something completely different.

Next up: Timothy Castagne, Carlos Belaba, Beto, Ansu Fati, & Fodé Ballo-Touré

The former Leicester fullback, Castagne, is in at Fulham where I expect him to supplant Kenny Tete as the starter. Castagne hasn’t shown significant upside in the attack during his three years with the Foxes since joining from Atalanta, but a handful of goals + assists each year is within reach. He’s a DEF3/4 and should be a starter as soon as GW5 coming out of the international break. I doubt he’ll be heavily scouted, but deserves to be close to 100% owned. He is one of the names I’d target with an immediate Free Agent add once waivers clear this Tuesday.

Fulham may have replaced both of their starting fullbacks in quick fashion with Fodé Ballo-Touré arriving on loan from AC Milan. The Senegal international has struggled for first-team minutes and has only 10 Serie A starts across the last two seasons (he’s split 5 starts, 5 substitute appearances in each of the last two years). The left fullback had more success in Ligue 1 with Monaco and Antonee Robinson should be looking over his shoulder. I do think the Robinson has a better hold on the LB spot than Tete has on the RB role, and accordingly I’d add Castagne before Ballo-Touré from the free agent pool this week.

Hard to argue that Ansu Fati is not the biggest and most intriguing name to join the EPL this summer. The Barcelona wunderkind has arrived in Brighton on loan where he’ll look to build on a promising early career which has stalled in recent seasons. At age 20 he has the youngest goal scored by a Barca player and a handful of Spain full international appearances already on his CV; the reason he should be considered a top waiver priority is because of his g/a per 90’. Last term in limited opportunity he scored seven La Liga goals and added three assists. The slight under-performance on expected returns (9.1 xG. 1.7 xA) can be partially attributed to making only 12 starts in 36 appearances - four of his goals game in those starts, with the other three spread across 24 substitute appearances.

The arrival coincided with Julio Enciso being lost for multiple months to a knee injury, opening an immediate spot in Roberto De Zerbi's squad. However, his preferred/natural position is currently occupied by Kaoru Mitoma and his dominant two-way play on the left flank and Evan Ferguson just scored a 43’ hattrick against Champions League side Newcastle United. Assuming Fati does enough to impress De Zerbi and hit the starting XI with regularity, a regular spot between Mitoma and Solly March - behind Ferguson - seems the most likely spot. That means João Pedro making way, or finding a way into the rotation. Perhaps the best part of the Fati acquisition is that he could play the striker, second-striker or left wing position, offering tactical flexibility in-match and the opportunity to rotate/rest players as Brighton chase a top four place of their own. He’s a massive talent in a side that has shown significant FPL draft value making him a WW1 and a 40-50% of FAAB target. If you’re in need of a potential game changer in a lineup that has under-whelmed through four weeks, he’s your ideal target.

Well behind Fati in the waiver order this week is Everton’s Beto. Everton strikers haven’t done much in the last few seasons and as out going Neal Maupay’s owners can attest, the squandered opportunities hurt even more when the chances were limited to start with. 61 Serie A appearances with 21 goals for Udinese from 2021-2023, but Beto had 23.6 xG for those 21 goals - he also had just one assist despite 4.4 xA, so the team as a whole were not great in front of goal. I don’t think you can possibly rate him inside the top 24 FWD the rest of the way even if he did score against /checks notes and rolls eyes all the way around/ Doncaster. Low-end waiver and $10-15 of FABB at a maximum unless you’re floundering for starters and just need a lifeline. Maybe he can save your side; I doubt he saves Everton.

Carlos Belaba joins Fati in Brighton. This is a great move, affords tons of depth to the defensive midfield spots currently occupied by Pascal Groß and Billy Gilmour who have been exceptional this year. At age 19 he is the proverbial One For The Future as Groß cannot keep this up forever. Gulls fans have to be salivating at the idea of Belaba and Gilmour bossing the midfield for the next 5-10 years (or until they’re each sold on for massive profit). Nothing here for FPL, except a note that Gilmour and Groß may see slightly less late game action but I’m not worried about either.

Sofyan Amrabat nearly earned a spot in the next section, but his arrival opens questions over Eric ten Hag’s tactics and preferred formation. The United midfield has not delivered on the pre-season promise but it’s been Christian Eriksen, Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes providing some FPL relief even as the real-life results are lacking. For Eriksen it was a goal against Forest and an assist for United’s lone goal at Arsenal the high-points of the Red Devil’s early output. Casemiro has been better than last term with a couple 8+ point hauls without a goal or assist to open the year; his goal and 18 points vs. Forest were a welcome sight but he was anonymous - in real life and FPL life - vs. Arsenal with >4 points in 90’. In nine years, across three top flight divisions, Amrabat has only four goals and 10 assists, with the bulk of those (1g 8a) coming in the Eredivisie. I think this is a solid signing in real life, but the fantasy impact may be reducing the FPL draft value of other Red Devils’ assets and not creating any of his own. Pass on acquisition but keeping a careful eye on his minutes and impact on the rest of United’s midfield.

In addition, Santiago Bueno (Girona) and Enso Gonzalez (Libertad, Paraguay) are both in at Wolves. The former is a 24 year old centerback who put in solid, if unspectacular, performances in La Liga. Wolves have a number of problems with their current squad and do not boast the type of FPL potential in the back line that they previously showed in the late 2010’s. Bueno is a player to watch to determine if he can grow

Players That Have Big Moves But Not Big FPL Draft Potential

This is a section just for Ryan Gravenberch, Sergio Reguilón, Clément Lenglet, Matheus Nunes and Altay Bayindir are also in. No one really cares except for LFC fans.

In from Bayern Munich, the Dutch international has a profile that is very easy to get excited about if he’s playing for your real-life team. His skillset is in short supply at Anfield these days and it’s quite likely that the former Ajax and Bayern Munich player will be in Jurgen Klopp’s starting XI more often than not.

via FBREF

He will compete for minutes for Curtis Jones, Wataru Endo, Thiago (if he’s ever healthy) and and Harvey Elliot to solidify a starting role alongside fellow new boys Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai. But this side boasts forwards who regularly line up in the middle of the pitch further increasing the competition, not only for minutes but for the final touches that lead to the big counting stats midfielders in the Ryan mould require to move from the MID5/6 depth play conversation into the MID3/4 regular starter discussion. I don’t see a path for him in Liverpool’s tactics to ever provide the kind of value you need, but his arrival is a good sign for which ever front three Klopp elects to use each week with his passing, progressive ball movement and ability to win back possession all in the upper tier. He’s a $1-3 FAAB big player if you’re in a competitive deep league (12+ teams, but 14+ is where he has value) and worth a bigger bid in a keeper/dynasty league as Gravenberch has the characteristics of a Klopp CDM and he could easily be a regular name in the squad sheet for the next 5-7 years.

The acquisition of Clément Lenglet by Aston Villa would be more interesting if he’d shown a bit more value playing for Spurs last season. The two assists across 26 starts aren’t awful for a CB, but Unai Emery needs his CB to stay at home to protect their attacking fullbacks and Lenglet hasn’t shown much in the way of a fantasy floor. The Villans also have possibly just lost CB Diego Carlos to injury - he was an early substitution against Liverpool. In that one, Emery elected to bring on Leon Bailey as an extra attacker, which didn’t really work but that’s also a sign that Villa’s defense is depleted with the long-term absence of Tyrone Mings. You can add him as your DEF4, I would not even burn a low waiver, or stream him if he’s starting after the international break.

Reguilón has moved from Spurs to United, as the Red Devils look for cover following Luke Shaw’s devastating injury. The fullback will miss the next three months (or more, who knows with these things) and in his stead is Diogo Dalot has earned minutes but he’s dealt with injuries himself. Reguilón is here only as a streaming option at best.

Matheus Nunes has actually killed his already limited value by moving to Manchester City. Welcome to the Kalvin Phillips club, my dude. It pays great and you’re highly unlikely to get injured.

Altay Bayindir is United’s newest reserve GK. Just know his name in case anything happens to Andre Onana.

The Kid Will Be Alright

Cole Palmer is out of Manchester (City) and in at Chelsea. As a teenager he banged goals for fun in the PL2 - hitting 21 goals with 10 assists in only 24 appearances. Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea are a mess, having one win in four matches and a mess of transfers in both direction leaving the club in need of the international break. Palmer is one of countless attacking midfield options currently at Poch’s disposal, but the question of which 2-3 will actual be of use across the season remains to be answered. If you’re in a dynasty league he should have already been owned and his future value does tick down a bit with this move.

EDIT: Big thanks to Jo for pointing out that I missed Bellegarde. Here’s my response from the comments below.

Jo: Great read yet again JW. Any interest in Sinisterra or Jean-Ricner Bellegarde of Wolves?

Not currently. Wolves is the team I'm least interested in owning *any* fantasy players from outside of Pedro Neto and maybe Jose Sa now that they did not bring in any direct competition (like Sam Johnstone).

Jean-Ricner Bellegarde should have made the article, I honestly just forgot about him. He's a MID 4 with some upside because I do think he has the job there soon (if not already), but his FPL draft potential is limited and does not come with a high floor. The outrageous attacking returns in the opening handful of matches with Strasbourg this season should not be you barometer though. If he posts 2-3 goals and 2-3 assists in a full season for Wolves, everyone should be very happy. And thanks for this question, I'm adding this to the post shortly.

I know what you’re thinking…I haven’t discussed any incoming Nottingham Forest players. That’s because they need a post all their own. More soon.