EFL Window Still Open
so dream a little dream of (E)mi.
So the silly thing about trying to Sports! during COVID! is that one of those things is an unquestionable force of nature which we’re simply not handling very well and the other is a global pandemic which apparently we think can be conquered (or at least contained) by Sports! This is a foolish idea but we continue to try and make new rules to help fit Sports! into a COVID! shaped box. One of those rules is the extension of the domestic transfer window until October 16. Here’s how it breaks down: Premier League clubs may not sign players from foreign teams or each other, but may continue to reach permanent and loan transfers with Championship, First Division and Second Divisions sides. From a fantasy stand point, there’s not much here. But there is something…so let’s speculate.
First off, if a deal was going to get done you’d think Premier League sides would have already gotten it done. Waiting until after the foreign markets are locked for months doesn’t help your bargaining position with lower division clubs. Emi Buendia cost £18m yesterday? Today that should be £25m and come with a loaner to replace him. I’m not remotely joking. You’d also think they would not leave these late with the international window opening, making the scheduling of medicals more difficult for the next fortnight. It’s not a total bar to success, but just another hurdle being added for literally no reason.
Finally, players signed now must be considered a bit of an afterthought. I can understand wanting to wait to see what transpires but for there to be no action, pull back entirely and count your chips before re-entering the fray is exactly the kind of wishy-washy behavior that sees a club struggle all summer to fail anyone of note and be left sorting through the best of the rest. Presented here, for your evaluation are every reasonably linked player you should be monitoring for the next 10 days.
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Said Benrahma - M/F, Brentford
No surprise to see Benrahma’s name at the top of the list. Alphabetically he’s tops, and his skillset translates so nicely to the fantasy scoring systems we love to play. Linked with Aston Villa, Leeds, West Ham and others, the Algerian is 25 years old and primed to step directly into the spotlight wherever he lands.
The Brentford forward (though I supposed with both OFPL and FT he could be classed a midfielder following any potential transfer) is worthy of WW1 even if most of the other names here arrive. A solid landing on a potential midtable club would be ideal and Leeds is particularly enticing for FPL. But his skill is undeniable which means there’s really only question that needs answering
Emi Buendia - M, Norwich
If there is a player who would trump Benrahma to the WW1 on October 17 it is Emi Buendia. A year ago the Canaries midfielder was basically a top 20 player for the full relegation-laden run. And that’s truly saying something. No one thought twice about dropping a 1st or 2nd round pick on Jack Grealish - who was nearly relegated AND needed both goals and assists to justify his high rank. Emi got it done and he got it done on paltry counting stats. Well, paltry “most people” counting stats. He delivered in spades on the numbers quality draft managers use.
Josh King - F, Bournemouth
Everyone’s favourite never-capped because he’s not actually English, “England international” Josh King remains tethered to the Cherries while Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser have both moved on (one even netting a transfer fee for Jason Tindall’s side). Tindall has not used the 28 year old King yet this season, with the Cherries last winning October 2 3-1 over Coventry. King is out of contract at the end of this season and it’s hard to see Bournemouth failing to sell if either of the reported prices (initially £16m, recently £10m) are met. Tottenham were mooted as a destination before securing Carlos Vinicius; Villa mooted as a destination even after they secured Ross Barkley. His value is, rather obviously, higher if he moves to a club without an established first-choice striker (really he would have been perfect for Sheffield United).
Last year was unquestionably a down year for counting stats: he scored six goals with four assists. But King’s 0.36 non-penalty xG+xA/90’ in 2019-20 was the same as the year before, and only down a tick from the 0.39 in 2017-18. Across those three seasons he recorded 26.8 xG and 18.5 xA. Landing at West Brom to partner Callum Robinson would land him at the back end of FWD2 ranks in 12-team leagues.
Todd Cantwell - M, Norwich
It’s shocking the Canaries were as bad as they were a season ago. Buendia and Cantwell were both quality players - and not just for fantasy purposes but really showed they belonged in the league even as the rest of the team floundered. The 22 year old was fairly quiet in the final third with six goals and two assists; he progressed the ball well and 38.1% of his shots were on target; he recorded 73 goal-creating actions (2.64/90’). The interesting bit about Cantwell is, rather like Buendia, you could see him making the move to a bigger club where he settles into an apprenticeship for the remainder of the season. That’s obviously crap for fantasy purposes.
He was tipped, along with everyone else on this list, to join Leeds but Marcelo Bielsa elected to sign Raphinha from Rennes instead. If Theo Walcott hadn’t just returned home to Southampton, you could have seen the Saints being a nice landing spot. Cantwell, like Buendia, didn’t rack up the goals and assists needed to justify an OFPL spot; that gets further reduced if there is any playing time/rotation concern.
David Brooks - M, Bournemouth
Brooks is not a Todd Cantwell clone, but for fantasy purposes you can see them very similarly. Maybe it’s because he has an old-timey, Kevin Costner character type name, but Brooks is only 23 and should have plenty of time to put last season’s brutal injury behind him. In his age 21 season he posted 5.7 xG and 3.7 xA in only 2,261 minutes of Premier League action. I know Leicester aren’t short in the midfield, but there’s something in his play that lines up nicely as a complement to Maddison, Tielemans and company.
For fantasy purposes a move to any of the backpage clubs (earlier this summer: Liverpool, Man Utd) not great. A move back to former club Sheffield United and that would be an ideal landing spot for FPL managers - especially draft Togga style scoring.
Ismaila Sarr - F, Watford
The Senegal international has long been rumored to be joining countryman Sadio Mane at Liverpool where the 22 year old would serve as understudy, relief and inspiration off the bench. However, the signing of Wolves Diogo Jota looks to have put the clamps on this.
Five goals and six assists in a debut Premier League season after arriving as Watford’s record signing of £30m, Sarr now finds himself potentially targeted by Liverpool’s rivals. Manchester United missed out on basically every player they targeted all summer and could do with some squad depth (and a new manager, more on that in a moment).
You’re not seeing many names in this article linked with English clubs in Europe this season. The reason for that is UEFA has set today, 6 October, as the deadline for registration of 25-man squads. The rules also limit registrants to those signed before the window for international deals closed. So Sarr, like any of the potential EFL deals, will be for domestic play only. In one way, this is good news for their fantasy value - a nice remediation for the value sink that is landing at a potential top 4 club for a player who will be a bit down the pecking order.
Joe Rodon - D, Swansea City
Just for fun, let’s include a defender! Rodon has been tipped with moving to West Ham - who are probably still sending “improved offers” to Burnley for James Tarkowski - and Spurs. Rodon, like Sarr above, could not be registered for Europe which is a bit of a shame given how well he’s performed for Swansea in the Championship.
Rodon is a fine signing and a player who merits watching, but unless he is moving to a legitimate mid-table club and directly into the starting XI, it’s hard to see much value here. Recent arrivals like Nelson Semedo, Alex Telles and Ruben Dias were inked specifically to fill a need. Rodon doesn’t do that any of his linked clubs for this season (except, again, West Ham but my agent’s just told me they put in a bid for me so…). Fine - if he lands at West Ham it’s hard to see him anywhere but the starting XI. And he’ll have plenty of streaming value with the potential of being a regular DEF3/4 in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Max Aarons - D, Norwich
Same boat, same issues, same potential. Aarons and Rodon play different defensive roles but play them capably and have similar fpl prospects tied to landing at a club where they can ply their trade from jump street.
Back to Manchester United for a moment. The biggest signing between today and 16 October may not be a player (oh the suspense!).
FOLKS, it’s called Legit News. It has a blue checkmark on Twitter. And it’s reporting a story that we’ve all be talking about since the above mentioned sacking in November 2019. So regardless of the current legitimacy, the underlying premise has been true for nearly 12 months: for the sake of all the many, many fantasy assets toiling (well, let’s be honest, they’re hardly killing themselves) for a rudderless duck let’s hope United sign Pochettino.
Ok - one last plug for the subscription thing I do. Just click that and pick monthly or annual and wait for the profits to roll in. (In this scenario you’ve figured out a better way to monetize this content than I have.)
I’ve been offered 2 trades from the same person. Zaha and firmino for my Traore then Firmino, Zaha and Telles for Castagne, Traore and Eze. They 1st seems to interest me.
Gaffer, would you take a trade of Pogba and Laporte for my (currently lowest mid) Diangana and my worst defender Ajayi (or Zouma if you think he won't get minutes)? Worthing it or too much hope involved in a new managed for Utd and Laporte playing over Ake?