Fantasy EPL Questions Entering Week 1

The season kicks off Friday; Window remains open for two weeks

The start of the Premier League season is here and with it fantasy Premier League matchups will start to count in nearly every draft league. Between now and the end of the summer transfer window, I’ll continue to cover the biggest arrivals and how they may impact your FPL draft league.

Have a question?

Q: Where do you see Mazraoui this season? I was looking briefly at some comparable stats and he has a similar profile to Estupinan (BHA) (numbers of matches lines up as well) or the likes of Malo Gusto. I also looked at him compared to Diogo Dalot and Tarkwoski. Based on last season he has a better SoT/90, a better passing cmp%, better shot creation actions/90, better Tkl+Int / 90, but less of an aerial threat than those two. I haven't crunched the numbers but if these would hold true for this season wouldn't he fall somewhere in your top 50 overall?

A: The departure of Aaron Wan-Bissaka opens a spot for Noussair Mazraoui to compete with Diogo Dalot for the starting slot opposite Lisandro Martinez on the flank. Our diligent researcher and the numbers cited do look ok, with a major caveat: he has not been an every-week starter ever in his career.

The two seasons in which Mazraoui was the most involved in the Ajax squad, he still only made 26 and 23 starts. His 26 league starts in 2018/19 matched the total number of Bundesliga starts he made with Bayern Munich in 2022/3 and 2023/24, combined. In those two years he a goal with seven assists in 2,272’. That is a major step-up from Wan-Bissaka as the back-up, rotation guy, but he simply hasn’t demonstrated a full-season at that level. Dalot averaged 0.13 non-pen xG+xA/90’ last season which was worse than the previous season with United (0.18) but in line with his recorded career average (0.15). Mazraoui posted 0.25 and 0.20 in his two Munich seasons (again, in many fewer minutes), and if - massive *IF* - he does take over the every week role then I would like him to take over Dalot’s spot in the Top 200 (No. 35).

What is more likely, is the departure of Wan-Bissaka and arrival of Mazraoui leads to more rotation and a general decline in the season-long FPL value of both fullbacks. It’s not a great resolution for draft purposes, but given drafts are mostly over, you’re looking at salvaging a draft pick on Dalot or using waivers or Free Agent Acquisition Budgets (FAAB) to pick up a valuable piece. I do not think Mazraoui is worth more than 15% of your FAAB budget ($15/$100).

While we’re here, we might as well discuss Manchester United’s other big, long-awaited, signing: Matthijs de Ligt. De Ligt is coming off only 16 Bundesliga starts for Bayern Munich in 2023/24 though he did have 27 in 2022/23 as a key cog in the title-winning side. I have a hard time blaming him for Bayern’s struggles last season as he had very little to do with signing Harry Kane. His arrival solidifies the current United defense as wholly belonging to Erik ten Hag who has brought in a duo who played under him at Ajax while overseeing the exit of Raphael Varane (Como) and Aaron Wan-Bissaka (West Ham) recently.

De Ligt suffered a series of injuries last season, costing him no fewer than 20 competitive matches, and open questions about his current health and the the ability of either player to unseat /checks notes…./ Jonny Evans. 2017/18 kicked off a run of six seasons as a top flight starter with no fewer than 25 league starts and included league titles for three different clubs in three different countries (Ajax, Juventus, Bayern Munich). That last bit is less important for the titles and more to illustrate that he has been able to adapt his game to different leagues, playing in multiple competitions and still contribute on the offensive side (19 goals, 6 assists in 206 appearances) but more solidly defensively. Three of his last six years included 100+ clearances, and he had five straight years of 50+ tackles + interceptions before the injury-impacted 2023/24. He is 483/765 (63.1% win rate) on aerial duels including a career-best 128 won with Ajax in 2018/19 and an impressive 89 (Juve 2021/22) and 96 (Bayern 2022/23) in “Big 5” leagues.

Playing in front of Andre Onana gives both of the new Red Devils’ defenders a better shot at a clean sheet given his shot-saving prowess but it’s Onana who is likely to be the greater beneficiary as ETH’s defense was fairly poor last season and Onana’s nine clean sheets may have been 5th in the league but fell well shy of David Raya’s league-leading 16.

So, where do they rate? For De Ligt, it’s a rating somewhere around Ethan Pinnock in the defender ranks and perhaps as high as 90th in the Top 200 - nestling between midfielder (NO. 92) and Pinnock (No. 101). He will still have to contend with Harry Maguire and not-quite-a-punchline-yet Jonny Evans (until Maguire’s eventual transfer), and Leny Yoro will be back from broken foot bones at some point, as well.

Q: Julián Araujo?

A: Not much of a question, but yes: Julián Araujo! The former Barcelona player is in at AFC Bournemouth and the Cherries 23 year old American-born, Mexico right back is going to contend for minutes. He made his breakthrough with MLS and had 11 assists across two seasons with LA Galaxy; it’s less the raw number of assists (11 is fine, split six and five is better as the consistency is important) than the fact that he was a regular starter. Araujo played 2,793’ and 2,741’ before his move to Barcelona and loan to Las Palmas.

He’s been added to a roster that already has Adam Smith (28 appearances in EPL for Cherries last year), and Max Aarons who played 1,237’ in a squad role following his £7m move from Norwich. I like Aarons as a Canary, and wouldn’t have minded seeing him earn more minutes last term; the arrival of Araujo could mean a three-way battle or could be the end of 33 year old club legend Smith; it could also be both for the opening six months of the season as Aarons and Araujo battle to wrest the starters job away from Smith. I continue to like Aarons as a streaming play off the free agent pool but do not see any immediate reason to roster any of the Cherries right-back options.

Q: Are Aston Villa really in for Lutsharel Geertruida and where would he play if he arrives?

A: I don’t know! This is a fantasy Premier League blog, not Hot Goss. My thinking is heavily informed by 8-10 media people I have varying degrees of relationship with from “yeah, they occasionally answer my DMs” to “I get the same info as you do, but probably a couple hours later because I’m not directly focused on any one team.” That said, Unai Emery has been building a team full of players that match Lutsharel Geertruida’s profile as a dynamic, versatile, nearly-elite player who can do a job, cover for another couple of spots, and run his legs off. For his FPL value, let’s all hope he arrives and plays right-back. Wait, that’s Matty Cash’s spot. And we like Matty Cash as an FPL asset. Still competition is good…

But! 18-year-old right-back Kosta Nedeljkovic also just joined Aston Villa from Red Star Belgrade in January for a reported £8 million. By many accounts, he’s been tearing it up this pre-season, and offering a challenge to incumbent Matty Cash (by law I have to use both names).

His pre-season performances have been nothing short of impressive, with Nedeljkovic contributing to Villa's build-up play with composure and accuracy. This has provided manager Unai Emery with a valuable tactical option, and the youngster's displays have given the Villa faithful a glimpse of what's to come.

While Nedeljkovic still has areas to improve defensively, his recovery pace has been crucial in mitigating threats and maintaining positional integrity. His awareness and intelligence in positioning will be vital as he aims to secure a regular spot in Emery's starting XI, challenging first-choice right-back Matty Cash. As he continues to grow and develop, Nedeljkovic's defensive potential is sure to be honed, and his ability to read the game will become an asset for Villa.

The arrival of Geertruida would likely reduce Nedeljkovic’s opportunities - it happens, the kid is 18 - and I’m not joking when I say we’d prefer him to be getting minutes at fullback to centre back or holding midfielder which are the other two spots where he is regularly deployed.

Scouting Report via FB Ref

This may be a situation where Cash’s lingering issues - he has made 23 and 20 EPL starts over the last two seasons - have made the 27 year old’s position available. Alternatively, Cash may continue to draw 50% time with Geertruida truly capable of shifting from the right side of a center pairing, out to the full back role with little to no impact in his performance level. Competing in the UCL and on three fronts domestically, it will be players like Geertruida who drive them forward.

If he does arrive, he’s a draft pick but somewhere outside the top 10 rounds. Eight goals with five assists for Feyenoord in 2023/24 came from 8.3 xG and 4.8 xA, those are opportunities he’s not going to get in Emery’s team unless he’s on the right wing. Last season Matty Cash played 2,142’ EPL minutes and had 4.2 xG with 2.3 xA (he scored 2 goals with two assists), which was 0.27 non-pen xG+xA/90’ equating to 9.0 npxG+xA in 3,000’. I’d love Geertruida to get those minutes and earn a top 50 spot in the Top 200, but it’s at least a season away from happening, imo.

I’m also not considering him in the midfield where Samuel Iling-Junior and Enzo Barrenechea (Juventus) and Amadou Onana (Everton) have already arrived since the departure of Douglas Luiz, while Emi Buendia is reportedly growing closer to a full return by the day. The Dutch international may have the ability to play in midfield, but he will not have the opportunity and that’s fine (unless he arrives and is classed a midfielder).

King Carlos, fetch your Hammer.

Carlos Soler is reportedly on the move to West Ham, swapping a fringe squad role with Parisian juggernaut Scores Goals for the pressure of carrying Julen Lopetegui’s new team. 50 Ligue 1 appearances included only 26 starts. He was predictably productive in limited time with five goals, four assists in 2,277’ across the two seasons, or roughly a seven goal, seven assist pace for a full season of minutes.

Hammers could desperately use some help in the center of the park and a player with a career 0.25 npxG+xA, a player who is highly efficient with his own shots (0.45 goals/shot on target in the last two years), a player who creates 2.5-3 shots per game. He’s unfortunately also a player who reallllly needs to put in more effort, or display more grift, on the defensive side of the ball. The team he’s joining isn’t PSG, it isn’t even Valencia, and to be successful in New Boleyn aka London Stadium, one needs a measure of grit.

Given that Lucas Paquetá is apparently still facing a number of charges related to betting, a suspension that will be months if not years, is reportedly a target for former club Flamengo, played for Brazil in Copa America and the dear boy is “suffering” according to his new boss because of the gambling charges. One may suggest that he could have avoided the “suffering” by, you know, not gambling. In any event, there are plenty of holes in Lopetegui’s side even without the likely absence of Paquetá, including a Tomáš Souček-sized hole in the starting lineup where Souček continues to be placed. Perhaps a bit harsh on a player who contributed seven goals with two assists last season but he’s creating nothing (1.32 SCA/90’) for anyone else (1.7 xA). I could have just as easily poked holes in FPL (and personal) favorite James Ward-Prowse who has continued to be exceptionally Prowsey in his play. Both players are fine in their own right, but neither is going to elevate the play of those around them the way Soler can. He would find himself in the fourth tier of midfielders around Youri Tielemans, Christian Norgaard and Harry Wilson for the point potential. But his arrival gives me a lot more confidence in the ranks and productivity of Mohammed Kudus, Jarod Bowen and whoever ends up being the actual striker.

On the FAAB front, Soler would be a MID3/4 in my draft ranks and based on expected productivity is only a big FAAB target if you’ve found yourself dealing with too many players linked with moves away. Personally, I’m not spending over 15% here and would prefer to be closer to 10%.