FPL Draft Ranks 2023-24

It's not a joke - you're a pesky, persistent lot.

You can tell I’m old and grumpy [note: had to make my first stealth edit in the first f*ing sentence. I’m well and truly in mid-season form] if I’m breaking out gifs from a movie that hit theatres the year I started playing fantasy sports. After an unceremonious and largely unreported retirement from covering Fantasy Premier League, I’m back, Baby! But much like ET, or Poochie, I will soon have to return to my home planet.

Here is the link to this year’s draft kit. Enjoy. More will be added as we get closer to the season. There will be some light writing on the stack as well.

2023-24 FPL Draft Rank & Tools

ok, with that out of the way here is the deal moving forward. I am not coming back to write regularly. I am not coming back to turn myself in circles debating the merits of Abdoulaye Doucouré vs. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg; I refuse to spend long evenings deep-diving fbref because I have to do it. I’ll do it because I want to do it and is the only balm that soothes.

On August 1, 2023 I am turning the subscriptions back on so people who want to contribute something, can. I have set the paywall to the lowest prices I can set them: $5/month and $30/year. These are the lowest amounts Substack will permit me to set.

On August 1, 2023 I will *stop* posting anything behind the paywall. That’s it. Everything I publish here will be free to read. If you want to read my stuff on this blog, it will be “pay if you want” for the foreseeable future, rest of time, next six months (my money is on all three of those being equal but who knows, I once recommended people bank their draft season on Nicolas Pépé).

Want to pay *something* but *less than $30 and *more than* $5. My PayPal remains @ JohnWallin (a bunch of you have used this before, I’m sure it’s saved). My Venmo is @ FantasyGaffer (same bit - you’ve used it, it’s below, etc). Send $ if you like. Enjoy the ranks and anything else I write if you like. Or you can use this to pay $15/year.

Relevant information regarding the actual purpose of this article starts….

Goalkeepers:

They are in two tiers this season because no one really knows anything and the world is on fire. If you want a guy who is going to play 38 games barring injury, committing assault or saying something truly horrible - the bar for which is constantly getting higher - you’re in good shape with everyone above the line and probably 2-3 guys below the line.

I don’t know what is going on with Mark Flekken but my best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who’s going with a girl who said that Flekken gave De Limburger an interview in which he said he was signed to be the new No. 1. I guess it’s pretty serious. Of course, David Raya was a top five FPL draft goalkeeper last season, damn fine betwixt the stix for The Bees over the last two years IRL and hasn’t actually transferred to another club yet.

If you’re spending anything before a 15th round pick in anything smaller than a 10-team league on anyone other than Alisson (or maybe Aaron Ramsdale), I can’t help you. In a competitive 12-team league I can see reaching into the early teen rounds to grab the GK you think has the best upside for clean sheets, goals conceded and saves, because most everyone is grasping at straws. The counter-position - if your league permits it - is take NO GK in the draft and grab as many damn straws as your chubby little fingers can hold, ya sicko. One of those lottery tickets is going to cash and you want to be the one holding it.

The earlier in the summer your draft is, the less willing you should be to grab a GK and the closer to the season you should wait before abandoning any of your late-round gambles. Like, 5’ before the first match kicks off is a perfectly acceptable time to select your starting GK for the season. Which might be the only thing you and Thomas Frank have in common this year.

The lines in the Position Ranks indicate my personal “tiers” of ranks. The same rule applies this year: I think there are reasonable arguments to be made for putting any player in a tier over any other player; these are my ranks. They’re a guide. You ranks may differ. The tiers also help while you’re drafting. If you use my tiers or your own, you’ll have a quick reference point for when to reach for a player or wait on drafting a specific position to fill another area of need with less depth.

Defenders:

I don’t know if Trent Alexander-Arnold will actually line up as a midfielder this season but I do not it does not matter. The rangy right-back has long been the gold standard for attacking fullbacks and this season he’ll be aided in that quest with the additions of two box-to-box midfielders who’s own tactical acumen and flexibility should afford him the same free wheeling opportunities while aiding him with high-intensity high-pressing. He’s in a class of his own and the only defender I would use a first round pick on - and I would use a first round pick on him.

The Newcastle defenders were the biggest surprise last season. Trippier pacing the field was a full standard deviation better than anyone had a right to expect, while Fabian Schar and Sven Botman also earned solid points for your XI each week. While there is plenty of transfer fervor budling on Tyneside, PIF has apparently decided the defenders won’t be hung out with the rest of the washing. Botman’s age and Schar’s attacking contributions make both attractive options for early round additions but despite heavy investment elsewhere in the squad, I do not expect them to allow the fewest goals (33) again. City also managed the feat, but had a team xGA (that’s team expected goals allowed) of 32.1 while NUFC’s xGA was 39.6. Despite the massive over-performance, the squad’s GK kept a respectable 14 clean sheets (City’s had 13) which was still some way behind Manchester United’s 17 (don’t let the facts get in the way of your celebrating Spanish Dave’s departure tho).

I am apparently much higher on Pedro Porro and VvD than most. Porro I truly do not understand the lack of excitement around.

In 1,131’ with Spurs he scored three goals (1.8 xG) and had three assists (3.0 xA). Even I’m not starry eyed enough to believe a full 3,240’ see’s him hit double-figures in either stat, but a combined 10 g+a is in the cards for him. You want to know how many defenders did that last season? One: Trent Alexander-Arnold (2g 9a). Only two defenders managed 10 goals + fantasy assists (TA-A had 2g 11a in draft; Trippier had 1g 9 fantasy assists).

I am concerned about the impact to playing time and production for both Alex Moreno and Oleksandr Zinchenko. The right side bars are inclusive of players who might be lower in the ranks (or omitted entirely from the ranks) despite likely appearing with a solid average draft position (ADP) in your draft engine of choice. We’re still a month out, so I may be overly cautious but drafting either right now comes with risk that does not currently exist for other similar options in their tiers.

The Pochettino era is underway at Stamford Bridge and we’re all waiting to see which players ultimately earn a place in his starting XI. There are fantasy points to be earned for the 12-16 players that end up in the main rotation but Poch teams tend to have a small number of players with concentrated value and a disturbing number of players that look amazing on paper but don’t deliver (y’all remember Erik Lamela, Nacer Chadli and Lucas Moura?).

While we have Poch’s recent stint at PSG to look at, his larger sample at Spurs may be more instructive. In his final season, in which he finished 4th an lost the Champions League Final, there were 14 outfield players that earned at least 1,500’ and 17 starts. The year prior there were only nine - that’s the high and low water mark of his four year stint. In both years there was a sizeable squad which included 2-3 players worth streaming in their limited starts - think Serge Aurier with two goals, two assists in 16 starts, and 5-7 players who were regular starters. I’d putting a lot of stock in James and Chilwell earning those roles and contributing regularly to your FPL XI. Because defenders drop in drafts overall, it is easier to tolerate greater risk there than, say, wagering a top 15 overall pick that Christopher Nkunku is instantly a 20 g+a player.

Midfielders:

I stopped the ranks at 75 because there are still too many questions. We’re six weeks away from the September 1 transfer deadline, clubs are still in the midst of their marketing tours and every other day a new Saudi rumor surfaces. Some names who didn’t make the final list include reported Liverpool targets Kalvin Phillips and Cheick Doucoure, Fulham captain Tom Cairney, Donny van de Beek back battling under Erik ten Hag, and Everton’s young maverick, James Garner. Nottingham Forest’s Danilo was a late addition, while Tomas Soucek, Dele Alli, Philippe Coutinho and Emile Smith Rowe could still drop off the ranks entirely.

For the last half decade only two midfielders have topped these ranks: Kevin De Brunye and new Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes. Until yesterday’s news broke, there was serious consideration to that streak being snapped. Last year was a down season for the 28 year old in which he hit only eight goals and eight assists, needing a pair of penalties to make that happen. United’s midfielders and forwards are higher here than you’ll likely see elsewhere, as the underlying data doesn’t suggest placing this many of them (apart from Bruno) quite this high. Ten Hag has kept his core despite the emergence of the Saudi league, and United have made smart, calculated moves early in the summer. I’m betting on incremental upgrades across the pitch showing up in the FPL outputs for Bruno, Eriksen, Antony, Sancho and Rashford.

Brighton’s unstoppable midfield machine boasts three players in the top 24 while Gulls’ alumnus Leandro Trossard narrowly misses at No. 27 and LFC newboy Alexis Mac Allister sits 14th. Trossard, Gross and Solly March have long been favorites of mine and “over-rated” fixtures in these ranks. A fun fact: 25 year old Kaoru Mitoma only made 24 starts last season while still finishing third on the club in both xG and xA. Losing Mac Allister hurts and the club will need Mahmoud Dahoud to integrate quickly. But there is a massive opportunity for Mitoma to increase his starts and FPL draft points without eating into either Gross or March’s production, with 2,886’ up for grabs. James Milner is also newly arrived at the Amex and unranked here, but his presence is felt in the low ranks for Dahoud who is the most likely, tactically, to share minutes with the 37 year old stalwart.

Two murkier midfields both hold untold FPL points with minutes, rotation and role all likely to heavily factor. Newcastle and Arsenal are coming off of massive years, investing in a win-now, win-later mode and have too many names for the number of spots. Will Gabriel Martinelli continue his exceptional 2022-23 form next season (he had 15!! goals and 9!!! fantasy assists last season) or will the ankle ligament damage which ended his season linger into the new year? Can Sandro Tonali in his age 23 season combine the fine goal scoring form of 2021-22 (5g from 4.1 xG) with the exceptional goal creation form of 2022-23 (7a on 5.7 xA), to become the next elite box-to-box FPL midfielder?

Four Gunners made the top 20 midfielders here while zero (cero, goose-egg, nada) Eddie Howe’s side has just two rated between 24-30 as their top rated midfielders following the departure of Allan Saint-Maximum to some pro league /waves arms dismissively/ over there. Some of this is a function of FPL position, as Anthony Gordon is rated a forward but would have occupied a similar late-20s early 30s rating in the midfield had he been eligible there. I am concerned that this team doesn’t have much attacking upside. Their two presumptive starting forwards are out and out strikers that are goal dependent and do not create many opportunities for their supporting cast. Last season Isak had 2.2 xA in 1,522’; Wilson was dead level on a /90’ basis (0.13) posting 2.7 xA in 1,877.

Top FPL forwards like Mo Salah (0.21) and Harry Kane (0.18) post much better xA/90’ while the next class including Bryan Mbuemo (0.24) are making a case for early selection because of their strong goal-creation metrics. That provides more opportunities for midfielders pick up those valuable goals which move a solid performer from the mid-30’s into the top 24, must-start status.

Forwards:

This class is weak as fuck. That’s just the reality of the player classifications, the departures of players like Aleksandar Mitrović, as the Serbian soccer player looks to force a move from Fulham, Romelu Lukaku (still awaiting his move from Chelsea), five (5!) Liverpool forwards all being classed (appropriately, probably) as forwards while similar players remain in the midfield and no clear promotion candidates looking to jump into the top 24 conversation.

The bottom tier of forwards runs from Danny Ings (No. 34) to Jay Rodriguez (No. 55) making it the largest tier of players I’ve posted since I started my ranks. This isn’t a subtle shine on JayRod, he fully belongs anchored to the bottom of these ranks and barely made it in to start - but if you wanted to sell me on Burnley banking their Premier League status on 2,800’ of Rodriguez defensive grift with a handful of goals and 3-4 assists being better than whatever the reanimated corpse of Danny Ings will provide West Ham before an inevitable winter transfer to the Championship, I’d totally believe it.

Kevin Schade is the only player rated in two positions. I don’t know where your league will stick him. I don’t rightly know where/how Brentford will use him this year, and I suspect that it won’t much matter as the 21 year old finds his footing in the Premier League this season. He earns a paragraph to clarify that I don’t love his FPL value this season but made 18 EPL appearances last season - he’ll have value as a streaming option either off your bench in deeper leagues or the free agent pool in 10-team and smaller leagues. Keep an eye on him but don’t overreach to draft him even if he has M/F eligibility as he likely doesn’t start enough to merit a full roster slot.

Luiz Diaz v. Cody Gakpo v. Diogo Jota v. Darwin Nunez.

You can see for yourself how I ranked them, but Jurgen Klopp has a way of surprising. Four Liverpool players were in the top 20 qualified players across the Premier League in xG/90’ Darwin (4th in EPL | 0.64 xG/90’), Salah (6th | 0.59), Firmino (18th | 0.41) and Gakpo (level-20 | 0.38) led the way. Diogo Jota only played 1,151’ (not qualified) but was impressive in limited opportunities (0.52) while Luis Diaz (0.22) struggled mightily to make an impact while dealing with injury. He finished behind Oxlade-Chamberlain and 19 year old Fabio Carvalho in Klopp’s high-octane offense. Similar to dealing with the midfield rotation during Pep’s years at City, if you could draft all four of them you’d corner the market on a highly valuable position but the draft capital and roster constraints of most leagues make this improbable at best.

Enjoy the ranks. Questions in the comments here or @FantasyGaffer on Twitter (still. I know. I know). -JW

2023-24 FPL Draft Rank & Tools.