FPL Friday OPEN THREAD

Saints vs. Villans in a battle for your mortal soul

Hey if you’re reading this, don’t forget that there is a fun promotion right now for new subscribers where you get the next 12-months, including the 2022-23 Draft Guide in it’s entirety, for just $30. Click the link and get full access to everything I write this season, including mid-year Ranks, plus full archive access. That will expire on Sunday Nov 8 and won’t be available again until Next October!

Southampton vs. Aston Villa should be a thrilling one for FPL managers who’ve either spun the wheel and picked-up a streaming Southampton forward, as discussed yesterday, or who invested big in Villa’s attacking trio who’ve yet to deliver on the promise.

Get In Loser, We're Going Streaming

Southampton notes first: the club have been poor, and notably very poor in attack at home. Their 6.6 team xG from the opening five home fixtures is 14th in the EPL and the teams below them are all notable for the very obvious attacking deficiencies shown this year (including in 19th Aston Villa). But Saints are incredibly tight at the back at home with the third lowest expected goals allowed on their own pitch (4.0; only Palace and Man City are better). Mohammed Salisu (40% selected) is second on the club in total points - avg. 8.72 PPM - and it’s hard to see him failing to pick-up at least 7pts in this one with the obvious upside of a 10+ haul should they earn the clean sheet. Nate Redmond (73%) is a good streaming midfielder in 8-team and smaller leagues which are the only leagues where he is reasonably a FA at this stage. If you’ve got him on your roster, you need to be starting him in this one as a ‘bench streamer’.

On the other side of the pitch, Villa have been as bad away at defending as Saints have been good at home - Dean Smith’s side are 17th in the league in road xGA (9.2) and truly feel like they need a big win here to get the ball rolling back the other way.

That has to begin and end with the ball at the feet of Emiliano Buendia, Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins. Watkins (2g, 1a) has earned modest FPL draft points to this point of the year but is not on the same dominant pace he was in 2020-21. Buendia (7th on the team) and Bailey (9th) also need to step forward soon and stay there. The trio must end the year 1-2-3 in FPL draft scoring if Aston Villa is to live up to the pre-season hype. Particularly concerning is that Matt Targett (1.7 xA) leads the club in expected assists, his 11 key passes trail club leaders John McGinn and Douglas Luiz (13) by just two. A balance attack, and wingback involvement, is certainly a key to success but Targett shouldn’t be top of the chart.

The other issue is that Watkins (2.9 xG) and Danny Ings (2.1 xG) are the only two Villans with at least 1.0 expected goals this season. Bailey (203’) is the obvious player to emerge, health depending, and his 0.36 non-pen xG+xA/90’ trails only Watkins (0.45) this year. Saints on the road is a tough nut to crack, but with Brighton (H) and Palace (a) up next, Dean Smith will know his club need to be collecting three points in each to solidify a place in the top-half of the table come Christmas.

Targett (55%) and Anwar El Ghazi (32%) are both viable streaming options here and could have 8-10 point upside. The El Ghazi play early in the weekend - should he be in the XI - is also nice insurance and banked points against possible rotation among more established players later in GW11.