Introducing OverthinkingFootball
(yes, it's really alloneword)
[Guy who runs this Substack’s note: I really enjoy the stuff that OverthinkingFootball - probably soon to be rebranded as OVRTHNKNGFTBL or OTFB or X@ - produces for FPL draft managers. It’s smart, easy to understand, and a unique way to look at the game we all love to play. I did a full set of ranks using their tools which you can see here and will be checking in with them regularly this year. Follow their stack! And this is not an ad. They’ve paid me fuck all and honestly if they tried to pay me I’d totally take their money and tell you. So you know it’s legit.]
[Also editor’s note: I take no responsibility for anything below this text even though I’ve lightly edited this for content and to fit your screen]
Hello!
For those who don’t know us, the Overthinking Football team is comprised of four of us: Chris, Andrew, Will, and Gordon. We wrote a few articles for this Substack long ago, and [Editor’s name redacted, but he’s hella handsome in both a conventional and rugged way] has been kind enough to offer us another opportunity to share a bit about what we have in store for the upcoming season. Things have changed a lot around here—we’ve got a new Substack, a new writer, and new and improved tools—and we’re excited for everything else to come.
Overthinking Football has been on the scene since 2020, starting out as a provider of statistics for Fantrax draft fantasy. The team developed xFpts—a statistic incorporating xG, xA, and xCS—before adapting baseball’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the draft game. We then adapted another baseball statistic, Quality Starts, for draft fantasy, providing managers with an additional useful metric.
Last offseason we turned to the world of apps, creating the fan favorite Draft Ranker. For those in the midst of draft prep, this tool offers fantasy managers the easiest method for creating their own personal ranks. Simply by choosing which player you prefer to draft in a series of head-to-head matchups, you can receive your personalized set of Top 175 ranks for free. You may have seen [Probably Chris Hemsworth or Chris Pine, or possibly a lesser Chris] posting his own matchup conundrums on Twitter this past week, and you can join in on the fun!
Yet the Ranker’s benefits don’t stop there. By compiling the Ranker’s results, we are able to offer subscribers the Overthinking Football team’s consensus rankings and the only Community Consensus rankings available. The Community Consensus ranks represent the draft fantasy Community’s views, compiling hundreds of thousands of matchup selections from hundreds of managers. Any set of ranks—your personal ranks, the Overthinking Football Ranks, Christoph Waltz’s ranks (is that right? is it Christoph Waltz’? or Christoph Watlezes or Christophs Waltz?) or the Community Consensus ranks can be directly uploaded into the Fantrax draft room, making draft day that much easier.
This season, we are offering subscribers a new feature as well: the Ranker Report! The Ranker Report will take managers’ Draft Ranker individual rankings and provide them with a fun and sharable snapshot of their draft preferences. Find out interesting info about your ranks: which Overthinking Football draft like, which players you value more or less than the community, what your favorite fantasy team looks like, and more! Then share it on socials with the rest of your community.
But that’s enough about the Draft Ranker. Since our offseason acquisition of Gordon (@FantraxGJL) [and sadly not a single Chris], one of the biggest changes in our humble blog has been the sheer amount of words written. You see, this offseason we made the decision to transition to a subscriber-based model (more on that below). In our eyes, that meant that we owed everyone more. Stats and apps weren’t enough.
Our upcoming projections will be a valuable addition to your draft experience. On top of that, we wanted to write and write a lot. You won’t find template articles that tell you what you already know. We promise consistent, timely written content backed by statistics and analysis. It’s safe to say that [EDITOR’S NOTE:
I mean, if you like the shit I’ve done for the last…well since these dudes were born, you’ll rest easy knowing this is content they enjoy and want to build on].
A sample of the sort of posts can you expect from us
We are posting articles primarily on the Subscriber side (with article previews available) with only a subset available for free, but for those wanting to know more about the sorts of things we’re writing before taking the plunge, we wanted to share some examples below. So if you’re a Substack subscriber, you can expect to see:
Pre-draft articles on Breakouts, Busts, and analysis of Ranker trends
Team previews ahead of the upcoming season
Deep-dives into individual players and clubs
Analysis of the league’s new signings and their fantasy potential
Highlighting of useful Fantrax tools / content that can help you as a draft manager in-season
If that sounds like the sort of thing you’re interested in, please consider joining us on Substack and following us on Twitter (no, we’re not calling it “X”) @ovrthnkfootball! We are offering two subscription tiers this season:
Tier 1 - Data enthusiasts
Free
Access to all of our stats, including xFpts, Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and Quality Starts using our new, interactive stats table with its corresponding visualization engine
Use of our Draft Ranker 2.0 tool to create your own individualized draft rankings
A small number of free articles. These free articles may range from weekly advice to topical deep-dives, and will give you a glimpse at the benefits of upgrading to the Tier below . . .
Tier 2 - The Overthinkers
$5 per month or $40 per season
Access to the Overthinking Football team’s Consensus Ranks and the Community Consensus Ranks compiled through the Draft Ranker
Access to your own personalized Ranker Report based off of your Draft Ranker selections
Our pre-draft articles on Breakouts, Busts, and analysis of Ranker trends
Access to our upcoming player stat comparison dashboard apps (and any future apps developed by the team)
In-season highlighting of over- and under-performers, players to watch, and other key interesting data points and advice
In-season weekly player projections
Deep-dives into individual players and clubs, including our round-table discussions
The Overthinking Football Fantrax Teams of the Year
Exclusive video and audio content from the Overthinking Football crew on an ad-hoc basis
Any other content we think of during the year!
We hope to see many of you in the future, and, as always, don’t hesitate to reach out!
[Damn. Kind of a hard sell there at the end, and without a single definitive Chris. I suppose anything is possible in a post-Barbenheimer world. That said, I probably have to write at least one article for them now….so best to at least click that link.]