It's the Most Ridiculous Time of the Year
It's the Most Ridiculous Time of the Year
16 matches down with four more GWs played before 3 Jan, time to check in.
The 2023-24 Premier League season continues to play out in polarizing fashion. In the table, there are three teams clearly locked in the relegation zone, though to call it a ‘battle’ supposes there could be a different outcome than Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton making a swift return to the second tier. Last season’s top three clubs in the Championship combined for 78 wins and 272 points, but this year have six wins (2 each) and 25 points through 16 weeks. VAR and the Financial Fair Play rules have also had more than their fair share of attention, with the former seeing at least one indisputable goal failed to be awarded, while the public perception of inconsistent application on FFP has cost Everton 10 points while others at the top of the table continue to litigate countless alleged infractions.
VAR has been such an issue that ESPN is running a tracker for all VAR decisions in the Premier League throughout the 2023-24 season. The tracker shows that Fulham and Forest are at the top of the table on +4 total decisions overturned for Forest that led to +1 on goals for and -2 on goals allowed for a net +3 impact to their goals; it hasn’t helped their league position. On the other end of the chart are four clubs level on -2 including Liverpool - owners of perhaps the most egregious VAR error you’ll ever see and since that wasn’t overturned it doesn’t factor into the table here - just ahead of Brighton (-3). The Gulls have arguably dropped out of the Top Four discussion in part because of dropped points against Chelsea after a penalty awarded was scored by Enzo Fernández for a foul on Mykhailo Mudryk by James Milner, only to later see a penalty overturned when no handball by Levi Colwill was deemed to have occurred deep into added time (90+11 minutes).
Chelsea and Manchester United have each been involved in 9 VAR overturns in the opening 16 matches, rather a staggering number when you consider it but neither club has been disproportionately impacted as a result. These are all just data points, and it’s hard to discern if there is any pattern to monitor, but smart managers keep an eye on everything. Is that…is that *foreshadowing’s* music? You know it, nerds.
Lets. Get. Sampling.
The iron man is a thing of the past. Only six outfield players have played the full 1,460’ and just Bruno Fernandes is in the cohort and not lining up at defender. Manchester United’s most delightfully sad-faced criança terrível has enough FPL points to sit comfortably inside the Top 10 overall, and has massively under-performed expectation. Much of Erik ten Hag’s squad have disappointed FPL managers with the duo of Marcus Rashford and Scott McTominay - level on FPL points with 107* - sitting third on the club and still barely outscoring their captain’s 212.5.
*for all FPL points I’m using FT default league carryover scoring. It should be withing a couple points either way of 99% of the scoring currently used in FPL draft games.
But Bruno, look we have to talk about the three goals (4.5 xG) and three assists (5.8 xAG) while converting only 1/2 of his penalty attempts. Despite ETH running United into yet another uphill battle of a lost season, Fernandes could rival Ollie Watkins (8 goals) or Son Heung-min (10 goals) on total FPL points with just a bit of positive regression to the mean. While he has relied heavily on the penalties for maintaining the appearance of productivity (at least a higher xG 4.5 than non-pen xG 2.9), he’s also needed every minute of league action to do it. This is a make-or-break stretch of matches for United starting without a suspended Fernandes against Liverpool - then West Ham, Villa, Forest before the break. I expect he’ll play every minute, or close enough, of those other three matches. If there was ever a ‘buy low’ Top 10 player this is the time.
Two other ‘buy low’ stars are Liverpool’s Darwin Núñez and Crystal Palace talisman Eberechi Eze, who looks on pace to return before the new year from a serious ankle injury.
Núñez, who has been quite good, sits behind names like Hwang Hee-Chan and Ethan Pinnock in total scoring. His 15 appearances have netted four goals and seven FPL assists (5 in the real world) but he’s barely cracked 9 PPG. Part of the issue is a lack of key passes; he has registered at least one in only 8/15 games this season, recorded one (1) in five others and has two (2) in two games. His job is to score goals and he’s not Bobby Firmino or Sadio Mane, I get that, but I can still believe that Darwin is able to evolve into a more complete player this season. I like him for closer to 10.5 PPG and 9.2, and that’s a healthy enough jump to target him. He also has some room for growth on goals where his 6.6 xG portends the ability to hit 10 goals in the season’s remaining 22 matches. If he hits goals at an average (xG) or higher pace, while adding a nominal amount in the build-up, he’ll be at the outside of FW1 and a must-start when he’s in Klopp’s XI.
The book on Eze has always been a page-turner with the dynamic midfielder capable of turning a match on end or winning you a fantasy clash on his own - maybe without even scoring. Before having his ankle injured, Eze was setting a career best for shot creating actions, averaging 4.74 per 90 minutes. He was also above his career average for successful take-ons and below his career average in tackled %, showing maturity and growth. 13.6 PPM means he’s going to be hard to pry away from his manager but making a move now on the double-hope that he returns at the earliest date and the injury is well behind him when he does.
Shot Creating Actions
Eze’s SCA make him a must-own, must-start player and that number 4.74/90’ is good for 9th in the Premier League this season just behind Pascal Gross (4.91 and 12th in FPL draft total points) and ahead of Willian (4.58 and co-leading Fulham with four goals and five g+a). While Gross and Willian are known quantities, Chelsea’s Cole Palmer (4.53 SCA/90’) is 11th in the league, inside the top 50 in FPL draft scoring and Conor Gallagher for the title of best Blue’s midfielder. The duo sit 2nd and 3rd in scoring for CFC, with Conor slightly ahead on total points and Cole scoring better per appearance. I remain surprised that Palmer’s FPL scoring has been so dependent on goals, and he has just one 10+ point performance this season in which he did not record a goal, assist or both. That came in the 28 October 0-2 loss to Brentford when he made four key passes. Because of his ability to generate shots - both his own and teammate’s - Palmer is on my short list of current trade targets.
Further down the list, the appearances of Morgan Gibbs-White (23rd with 4.2) and Alfie Doughty (28th, 4.08) help sustain my continued support and belief in both players ability to produce for FPL managers even if their clubs remain mired in the relegation fight. MG-W is a legitimate FPL star and one with a hefty £42.5m transfer on his ledger and the slim hopes of an entire team on his shoulders. He’s not going anywhere while Forest are above the drop zone as any departure leaves too large a hole in the lineup. In addition to being a no-doubt target for the 2nd half of the season, MG-W remains high on the acquisition target list for keeper and dynasty leagues as he will quickly outgrow his humble surroundings.
Doughty is also unlikely to depart Luton this winter, even if Luton are far less likely than Forest to retain their top flight status. That’s not because the wide player is an institution with Luton; he’s on his 6th club since 2018. He has settled, at age 24, in a reliable producer at the highest level of English football and the Hatters odds of swiftly returning from the Championship are dramatically improved by retaining him. For FPL managers that should give good comfort that he’s far more likely to spend the second half struggling valiantly on the pitch, rather than watching a mid-table team from the bench following a January move. The three assists and 2.1 xAG both lead the club but his 8.5 PPM come from a variety of sources including tackles won (15), key passes (28), clearances (17), interceptions (12), aerials won (16) and successful dribbles (15). The man can fill a stat sheet.
If you’re looking for a deeper pull on Shot Creating Actions, Burnley’s Johann Gudmundsson has only played the full 90’ once in the last five game weeks but his 4.28 SCA/90’ is better than Son (4.19), Mitoma (4.07) and Douglas Luiz (3.97). At age 33, Gudmundsson’s best days are behind him but three of his last six appearances have netted FPL draft managers 10+ points. What did they have in common? He made at least four key passes in each of them. Ranked outside the top 150 in total points, his 6.5 PPM is dragged down by three substitute appearances and reduce minutes but he is capable of putting in a MID2/3 performance when starting and can be had for pennies on the dollar.
Rip and Run
While we’re staring doe-eyed at Eze’s stat line which includes an eye-popping 34 successful dribbles (if you’re using FT, it’s 32 if you use the more reliable and accurate FBref but that doesn’t matter for scoring purposes) on 59.3% success in only 798’, we can’t but help and check out some of the other names around him.
Of course, Pep Guardiola’s latest in on-the-ball technology - Jeremy DOKU - is atop the pile with 43 successful dribbles and those came in even fewer minutes (694’) but slightly lower on the success front (55.7%). Between Doku (1st) and Exe (6th) are Wolves’ Matheu Cunha (34), Villa’s John McGinn (33), Brighton’s Mitoma (33) and Burnley’s Luca Koleosho (32). We all know McGinn and Mitoma have big value and several years of track record demonstrating their ability to be a MID1 for a full 38 games. Cunha and Koleosho, however, deserve some additional consideration.
It’s perhaps a bit closing the barn door after it’s been ransacked by the local wildlife, but Wolverhampton has found a fit in Brazilian international forward Cunha, who joined Wolves on loan from Atletico Madrid last January before completing a permanent £44m switch in the summer. I’m not sure how he’s only 86% rostered in FT, but I suppose that’s a sign that ~15% of those leagues are deadstick, since his five goals, three assists and better than 10 PPM have anyone who’s paying attention, paying attention. I like him to continue into the second half for a couple of reasons, not least of which is that he’s nearly doubled his non-penalty xG+xAG from 0.24 to 0.45 in part by making better shots (shots on target up from 26.9% to 55.6% which has meant an increase of 0.65 to 1.36 SoT/90’. Three times in his career he’s managed a full season with better than 50% SoT so there’s hope that will continue.
The other stat he’s dominating is successful dribbles while being significantly worse on his success %. Last season he managed 26 (66.7% success rate) in 965’. That was in line with his career success rate before this season - this year he has 34 but is down at 45% success. If he keeps running at opponents and is able to push that success rate back up towards average he’ll bolster his floor while retaining the big-game upside when he finds the back of the net.
Meanwhile, at Turf Moor Luca Koleosho has been regularly starting on the right side of four-man midfield. Unfortunately for FPL draft managers his forward rating coupled with him sub-6 PPM scores have him currently a non-entity. Koleosho is further limited by the number of matches he’s been subbed out on. Despite making 15 appearances and having 13 starts, he’s only got 974’ of a possible 1,460’. He makes today’s list of some possible upside in part because the kid is so young, having turned 19 in September he’s still in his first full season of professional football. But he also has some elite talent which provides a floor for FPL value, starting with 2.59 shot creating actions per 90’ and 33/78 on dribbles.
The success rate (42.3%) will improve as he matures, but that raw number of 78 attempts in 974’ translates to 7.2 per 90’ which means he’s capable of clearing 10 points with a goal or assist. The slight underperformance (1g, 1a | 2.0 xG 1.3 xAG) shows that he can be a FWD2/3 when you’re up against it, and he should be on your streaming watch list in 12-team and larger leagues.