This week the mid-season ranks will be getting full breakdowns on the site. While you can access the full ranks starting tomorrow using the shared link, today - and each of the next three days - there will be a post with some of my thoughts. This one is open to all, while the next three are for paid subscriptions. Every year I’ve done these I always start at the back, leaving forwards until last. That’s boring. Let’s start with a the goal-scorers this year. As always, these are presented in tiers, in which I believe there can be a reasonable argument for any of the players in the tier over any other player in the same tier. Post your position specific questions in the comments.
We’ll start at the top:
Tier 1
Go get your Liverpool forwards (which now include a rapidly rising Diogo Jota!) and start them every week they don’t have COVID. It is a bit shocking to see Mo racking up 19.69 points per match and still sitting fourth in total points. He may struggle a bit post-COVID and with Liverpool now likely to need him against Ajax following the loss to Atalanta. This duo is the gold standard and paying any price to get them is justified.
Tier 2
Harry Kane has been exceptional. I’m sorry to all of his many, many fans but this does not end with him posting the first 40/40 season since Alfonso Soriano did it in 2006. He’s not even getting close to Christian Yellich. Enough baseball references? I did write about Kane and Son recently, and was leaning Son at that time. That changed.
If you’re wondering between Son and Kane, Harry Kane has scored seven goals with eight assists on the season from 5.9xG with 4.4xA. While that’s still better than 1 npxG+xA/90’ (1.02), the odds that game will either continue to average that or substantially out-perform both is pretty low. I give ‘arry more than his fair share of shit but there is no denying his quality as a fantasy striker when he’s fit. This season he’s fit.
In the three most recent matches, Sonny has 4.5 and 5.5 points in the two games where he failed to score or assist. If both Spurs forwards are going to show this massive g/a reliance, I’ll - marginally - take my chances with the lanky f*cker who’s found a way to turn the odd assist into a never-ending tidal surge of helpers.
Tier 3
Said Benrahma absolutely does not belong in this tier. He’s done less than nothing since he arrived at West Ham. That said, this team is still very difficult to care about except for Sebastian Haller doing enough to hopefully push Michail Antonio into Jarrod Bowen’s spot. Then the pile of damp paper towels picking the rosters drops Fornals of Benrahma, and then we feast! So, understand he’s here because I love him and his upside is the sun and the moon and the stars. YMMV.
Now it gets fun…
Tier 4
I had Helder Costa here, and he got dropped recently for Raphinha. Whichever of the two of them holds down the spot belongs here and I do believe it is Raphinha so he’s moved into the spot. Sebastian Haller has also done everything we could have asked in his three starts following Antonio’s injury so he moves up from Tier 5 into the fourth group - and modestly high as here as well.
Tier 4 gets one additional hitman: Danny Welbeck. There was never a question of if Welbeck could be valuable, the question was only if he could land on a team where he’d a) get a chance and b) be kept healthy. So far he’s got both. His arrival does drop Maupay and it’s no coincidence they’re back to back here. The matches will be few and far between where they both post big scores and Maupay could again be in a rotation further complicated by Leandro Trossard’s imminent return.
Tier 5
This is the catch-all tier where your high-upside, few-start players meet your faded superstars making impact cameos, crossed with your infinite talent/no production cadre. The two at the top are, by some margin for me, the best of the group. Both Abraham and Mousset could have been in their own tier here, and would be at the bottom of Tier 3 if they are announced as every-week starters (in this word managers have to do what I want them to). This is also the only tier where I’ll tell you my ranks are pretty definitive. You try to tell me any of these guys are worth more than Lys Mousset and we’ll throw hands.
RELEVANT!
Lys Mousset is back in training. This team is mired at the foot of the table and have scored a league-worst four (4!!!!) goals from eight expected goals. That 8 xG is third-worst in the league, and illustrates how bad the squad has been creating chances. Only two players have more that 0.5 expected assists FOR THE SEASON - George Baldock and Sander Berge - and both of them have accumulated just 0.8 xA (that’s 0.09 xA/09’). Mousset isn’t solving these problems himself but he is, by some margin, the most dynamic attacking talent that Chris Wilder has at his disposal. This hasn’t meant much in the past, but after securing just one point from a possible 27 The Blades’s boss better recognize Mousset is a mandatory starter.
Not relevant to forwards, but you need to know:
Ugh. By the way, while writing today’s newsletter, Everton did confirm that he has suffered ankle ligament damage. It’s ugly for Digne - and less so his fantasy owners - heading into a key stretch for the Toffees. He’s headed for surgery.
If Thanksgiving is your thing, I hope you have a very happy, safe and healthy day! If Thanksgiving is not your thing, I hope you have a very happy, safe and healthy day! I appreciate each and every one of you for subscribing to this very, very silly endeavor.
Where do you realistically rank Benrahma John? I assume you expect him to find a way into the team? I have been offered him for Tammy and I am considering it