Open Thread: January Transfer Log

Updates and analysis on the moves made in the Winter Window

We’re starting the winter transfer Open Thread six whole days into January and the back pages have been quiet. A little too quiet…but when the floodgates open, this will be the page where I’ll be updating. Rather then send a new email each time there is a relevant bit of FPL-worthy insight, I’ll use this post so feel free to check back regularly, use the comments for questions or to share transfer rumors.

A couple quick notes on how I’m going to run this post. I think that items will be chronicled in entry order with the newest on the top, with the date of the entry followed by the news and fantasy impact. Comments will remain open with the newest OPs being listed first, as well.

So for UPDATES, I’m going to drop them in at the top and then when the next update occurs, I’ll slide the content back down to the appropriate spot in the calendar.

UPDATE: 27 January - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has been left out of Leicester’s selection for the FA Cup fourth-round game with Birmingham today. Sky Sports is reporting interest from both Brighton (who is handling Sheffield Utd handily at time of writing behind a hat-trick from Joao Pedro) and Brentford. A move to the 15th place Bees is much preferred for immediate fantasy value for the 25 year old midfielder who is in the midst of a career season. Through 27 appearances (25 starts) he’s racked-up nine goals and nine assists with both stats leading the Foxes this season. Quite why the Foxes would agree to sell their talisman while sitting happily perched atop the Championship table on 66 points, seven clear of Ipswich Town - who themselves just suffered arguably the worst upset in FA Cup history, is unknown though certainly the reported valuation north of £40m could turn heads.

He’s currently completing 78% of his passes, a slight improvement from 76% last season in the Premier League, and he is taking a majority of the corners as well with 67 to date. Where he’s made the biggest step forward is in generating shots. Dewsbury-Hall is averaging 5.15 shot creating actions per 90’, a massive step forward from 3.04 and 3.29 in his last two EPL seasons and a marked improvement over the 3.80 he posted with Luton in 2020-21, his most recent Championship campaign. Comparatively, he is among the very best in the Championship - 6th overall/90’ while his 127 SCA are 4th. A move to a club where he is a starter opens a path for him to be a MID3 for the rest of the season, with a modest amount of game-by-game variance which should make him capable of a few 20+ point outings in the mix.

(While we’re here, Leeds’ Crysencio Summerville leads the division with 156 SCA and 6.75/90’ and is still just 22. His name will be continue to be linked with EPL clubs despite signing a new contract to stick at Elland Road until 2026).

25 January: Finally getting some big moves mooted with Kalvin Phillips moving on loan to West Ham the biggest we’ve seen. The fantasy value for the midfielder hasn’t been there since the 2020-21 season when he posted nearly eight points per match as a destroyer in the center of Leeds midfield. In that season the England international made 28 starts an scored a single goal with two assists; that lack of scoring is going to be a minor issue as this West Ham side could use a proper two-way playmaker in the absence of Lucas Paquetá (calf injury), who had two goals and five assists in just 18 starts. The arrival of Phillips could also spell the end of Tomáš Souček and/or Edson Álvarez’s time in the starting XI, once Paquetá is healthy and Mohammed Kudus returns from AFCON.

If Phillips is a regular starter in David Moyes side, his ceiling is the 7.7 PPM he posted back with Leeds. That makes him a borderline starter in 10-team leagues and an unspectacular MID4 in 12-team leagues where his lack of upside really hurts his value for managers looking to remake an under-performing unit with January additions. This one far more likely to pay big dividends for West Ham than your side, but someone in your league should find a roster spot for the 28-year-old.

25 January: I am still watching the Chelsea departures with both Armando Broja and Conor Gallagher being rumored as transfer targets during the winter window as the Blues look to cover expenses. Broja had been linked with a move to Wolves, and the 22 year old wouldn’t have been much missed in Chelsea’s squad having made only 13 league appearances with more than half of those coming from the bench. His single EPL goal isn’t doing anything for FPL managers either. As Wolves interest has cooled, recent reports have manager Mauricio Pochettino affirmed that the potential for Broja is immense while declining to rule out a winter sale if Chelsea’s asking price for the 22 year old Albania international is met.

The bigger move is any departure of Gallagher. He is leading Chelsea in starts and appearances this season (20) and has four assists without a goal and the lack of counting stats is hurting his FPL stock. Inside the top 20 scoring midfielders, only Declan Rice (8.29) is averaging fewer points per match than Conor (9). He can’t really move anywhere that’s better for him as his position is secure in the Blues lineup, but it might be another manager helps him rediscover the scoring touch he showed with Crystal Palace - eight goals, three assists in 2,845’. In that year he had 6.3 xG; in the two seasons since he has 55 league appearances but only 4.1 xG and from that three goals.

25 January: it was just two days ago that Saudi side Al-Shabab was heavily linked with signing Miguel Almiron from Newcastle in what can only be - and was many times - considered to be another layer of the sportswashing enterprise, this time layering in massive flouting of Financial Fair Play rules. To his credit, it appears that Almiron himself has told Newcastle that he does not want to leave (whether that’s for Saudi Arabia or anywhere appears unclear) and will instead help Toon navigate the run-in.

A day ago it was reported that Bayern Munich had bid for Kieran Trippier; by today that bid appears to have been rejected and the German giants have moved forward with new transfer targets. Retaining the fullback is of utmost importance for retaining the FPL value in the squad as his seven assists lead Eddie Howe’s team. He and Almiron are both amoung the five most-used players by Howe this season and their availability moving forward ensures consistent service remains for Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson.

23 January: “Reyna to Forrest. Reported by Ornstein. Please discuss.”

Well this one isn’t official yet, but it’s been reported by a number of credible outlets including, and started by, David Ornstein that Borussia Dortmund may be transferring United States international Giovanni Reyna, but it’s Carl Anka who provided the most accurate commentary.

In fairness to Forest, they haven’t yet been back to the fridge since the summer window closed and olives are delicious. Reyna is a perfect example of a player who is unlikely to live up to our expectations but if he ever did, he’s an immediate game-changer that likely justifies a Waiver Wire 1, Max FAAB bid. He is, however, another in a short, recently acquired line of attacking players that have shown massive potential elsewhere but haven’t integrated successfully for FPL draft purposes.

Is Gio a giant crybaby? Yes. Are his parents overbearing jerks who’ve showed their asses to the world? Yes. Has the 21 year old struggled to make a regular impact at Dortmund since making 23 starts in his age 17 season? Yes. Are his per 90’ stats simply absurd? Also yes.

via FBRef

The question is if Reyna is able to be integrated into a starting XI which still spotlights Morgan Gibbs-White and hands the reigns to Anthony Elanga to drive the attack forward. The first order of business will be keeping Gio healthy and on the field, which has been difficult as the player has missed more than 35 matches over the last 2+ seasons with various injuries. A quick look at Ben Dinnery’s injury table shows that Forest currently leads the EPL with 12 active designations but six of those are Africa Cup of Nations or parent club. The big one there is Taiwo Awoniyi, who’s lack of fitness has opened an immediate path for Reyna to start. Getting him on the field with Gio, Morgan and Anthony would be quite a coup for Nuno Espirito Santos.

Jan 16: 'The last information we had is that he is progressing. He is already training on the pitch, doing some individual work. Hopefully, in two weeks' time, he can start joining the group, and then it's about how he feels with his fitness levels.' -Nuno on Awoniyi’s injury

That’s a lot of preamble, to get to this: I think that Reyna’s upside is 3-4 goals and 4-5 assists across the final 17 games; that would be a return of just under a g+a every two matches. In 3,650 Bundesliga minutes he has 13 goals and 9 assists; this side isn’t the same caliber (obviously) and they have only 25 expected goals in 21 games. That ceiling is assuming everything fits and Reyna makes 15+ starts, and it counts on Gio performing at or over his career averages. Adding Reyna adds a player with 0.24 xGA/90’ for his career, a number which is better than every qualified Forest player this season except Elanga (0.32) and his 0.27 xG would be fourth. A more reasonable expectation is that he makes 12-14 starts, with a goal or assist every three matches, for a total closer to 2g, 2a. That isn’t bad for his total value which means you should hold your WW1 and limit a FAAB bid in the $15-25 range instead of making a big move.

If Reyna does get integrated, if the AFCON contingent returns without injury, and if Awoniyi is back healthy, it is likely the aged Chris Wood who will make way from regular starts and further limit the opportunities for Brennan Johnson (3 starts) and Nicolás Domínguez (11 starts) in the attacking midfield. Between Johnson and Domínguez they’ve scored just two goals and zero assists, while Wood’s eight goals (1 assist) lead the team. With the exception of Wood, these players don’t have much FPL draft value, but whatever they had is all but gone once Reyna signs.

19 January: Brighton (and Hove Albion) have made another splash in the market, this time by signing Argentine U23 international midfielder Valentin Barco from a little club called Boca Juniors.

“He has played predominantly on the left side, as a full-back, wing-back or winger, but also shown his versatility with Boca, playing across the midfield. He is an exciting prospect, but it’s also important we give him the time as he needs to settle and adapt to new surroundings and the Premier League.” - David Weir, Technical Director - Brighton & Hove Albion

Through 11 matches (all starts) in Argentina’s Primera División, Barco had scored a goal and assisted another. Apart from some highlights, I haven’t seen him play but a quick scan of Boca’s match logs shows that he is often deployed on the left side of the midfield; if Roberto De Zerbi and Brighton (yes, AND HOVE ALBION) think they’ve got a competitor for Pervis Estupiñán, that’s cool. But I suspect a replacement for when Kaoru Mitoma invariably gets purchased by a bigger club is also on their radar. In any event, opportunities for impactful FPL points will likely be in short supply this spring, but he is absolutely one to watch for streaming or to add to the back end of a dynasty watch list.

17 January: It’s true, Luton have signed a new goalkeeper but there is no FPL impact with Tom Holmes being loaned directly back to former club Reading until the end of the season.

13 January: Burley have made a short-term move that may open the door to some sporadic FPL draft returns. David Datro Fofana has joined the Clarets on loan from Chelsea until the end of the season. Now aged 21, Fofana is an Ivory Coast international with a handful of caps, and a Champions League goal (while on loan this season with Union Berlin) on his C.V. Because Fofana was not named to the final AFCON roster for Iyory Coast, he’s able to join Vincent Kompany’s struggling side immediately. He’s a streaming FWD3 for you in 10-team leagues who merits a look if/when he earns a start for Burnley.

It was just last January that the Blues announced they had signed Fofana on a six-year deal from Molde in Norway. In 2022, playing his age 18 season, he made 24 appearances in Eliteserien including 19 starts. His 15 goals and three assists led the club to a league title, with only Ola Brynhildsen also hitting double-digit goals. However, he has struggled to score in Germany, netting only one Bundesliga goals in 12 appearances (8 starts, 682’). With Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal in the next four, this isn’t the time for a speculative add but if you’re desperate and he’s in Kompany’s XI against Fulham, he has the natural scoring ability to make him a lottery ticket streaming play.

11 January: This was the big one since the last update as Radu Drăgușin has joined Tottenham from Genoa and already made an appearance in the 2-2 draw against Manchester United. You likely already know that the Romania international centreback was a major factor in Genoa earning promotion back to Serie A, and he had started 19 matches in Italy’s top flight before completing this transfer.

For Drăgușin, there is immediate competition in incumbents Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven, both young themselves with Romero (age 25) making 16 starts this season and van de Ven (age 22) making 12, with the later’s lower total down to suffering a shoulder injury. The oddest thig for me is that the immediate news cycle circling his move is that he’s using Spurs as a stepping stone with some pundits and his former club speaking openly about him leaving Spurs as early as after Euro 2024. That doesn’t matter much in a redraft league, but if you’re in a keeper or dynasty league his arrival doesn’t spell the end of the Romero / van de Ven partnership now or possibly moving forward. The Romanian famously snubbed a move to Bayern Munich to take on the Spurs’ challenge but a few months sitting on the bench may make him reconsider his future in London.

The minimal attacking output for Genoa this season (2g, 1a in 1,710’) isn’t bad for a CB, and there is certainly value there. I’d typically like to see a little more from his Serie B stint but four goals in 37 starts isn’t nothing and every inch of attacking value matters when trying to find a CB worth starting in fantasy. Streaming DEF3 when he’s in Ange’s XI but otherwise this is a big move on paper but not for your FPL side.

11 January: It’s been a slow window so adding in a few names who aren’t going to be value for the current season but if they develop could help increase value for others in the side. Turkey’s u21 international Yunus Emery Konak is this type of player, with the 18-year-old center holding/defensive midfielder unlikely to ever be worth rostering in 10-team leagues and smaller. However, the club is rightly excited to bring in a tenacious, ball-winning player who has already proved capable of playing in a top flight.

“Yunus is an exciting young player and we are very happy to have managed to bring him to Brentford. He’s a player that likes to be aggressive, close players down, win tackles, and get the ball back for his team. He has a lot of development potential still, especially on the offensive side of the game, and we look forward to working with him on all aspects of his game.” -Brentford director of football Phil Giles

Konak turned 18 the day before this transfer was announced, and had already made 17 starts for Sivasspor in Süper Lig action this season. Unsurprisingly, he had 0g and 1a in 1,313’. What is remarkable is his age: he achieved the 5th highest outfield minutes with the five players ahead of him (including the GK) all aged 29 or older. This is an older, experienced side and his play fit right in. $0 FAAB, not worth a roster spot this year, low-end roster spot (25th spot or deeper) in dynasty leagues of 10 teams or larger).

6 January: It’s a bit of kismet that the move which helped kill my joy of football may be at a merciful end. Roberto Firmino has been *linked* (what a truly awful way to described “a bunch of idiots in a room used an AI-powered SEO generator to deliver headlines that will generate clicks, then backfill copy with unsourced reports”) with a move from Saudi side Al-Ahli back to the Prem. You may recall that Bobby’s contract expired last summer and he moved on a free to the Saudi Pro League, where he has been a handsomely paid 32 year old seeing out the end of a remarkable career. You may not know that he is the captain of Al-Ahli, that he scored a hattrick on his debut, or that he’s been held without a league goals in his last 16 appearances. Quite why Fulham, Wolves or Nottingham Forest would be *linked* with him is left unanswered. Maybe it’s the two assists he’s recorded in the last 16.

Fantasy impact? Jesus that’s bleak. It gives me no pleasure to remind you that he scored 11 goals with three assists in just 992’ last term and could have moved to a real team in a real league where he would have been paid significantly less. The least reasonable move of the “touted” three is Wolves where the front line of Hwang Hee-chan (10g, 3a) and Matheus Cunha (6g, 5a) have decidedly not been the issue. If Gary O’Neil is looking to spice things up, maybe try a key party with the missus or some cocaine.

A move to Nottingham Forest where he could play for former Wolves (and Al-Ittihad) manager Nuno Espirito Santo makes the most sense if it’s an immediate - and I do mean like before the digital ink is dry here - move given the squad issues facing Nuno with injury and AFCON responsibilities.

Nottingham Forest makes the most sense tactically since the club likes to use an attacking three or four and Bobby is well-adept at shift from the false nine out to the wing; he could capably link with a talented collection of younger players - similar to the role that Ross Barkley and Andros Townsend are filling for Luton Town. His defensive prowess doesn’t drive a lot of FPL value for fantasy managers. Morgan Gibbs-White (206 points, 10.3 points per match) has remained a massive FPL asset despite scoring two goals in 1,687’ in part due to five fantasy assists and in part due to 4.11 shot creating actions per 90’. In add he has 77 SCA which is more than the next three players on the squad combined. Bobby averaged 3.76 in his final five seasons at Liverpool and could provide a vital pressure release for Forest’s burgeoning superstar.

13th placed Fulham could certainly be an interesting landing spot, where Firmino could link with Willian, Raúl Jiménez and Bobby de Cordova-Reid to create the best attack in London’s over-30 league. No one on the club has more than Andreas Pereira’s 3.5 xAG or Jiménez’ 3.9 xG which offers Firmino the chance to be a FWD 2/3 in the side should he land there and start.

6 January: Tottenham are in the market for a striker, with RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner linked on a six-month loan with an option to buy. This one has serious legs, much like Timo. But has struggled getting over the goal line, much like Timo. In the last 3+ seasons he has exceeded his xG exactly once: last season he scored 9 goals from 9.1 xG; not blowing up any skirts with that tsunami of scoring efficiency. The loan was reported done pending a medical which should leave the German well-position to play a part in Spurs’ clash with Manchester United on 14 January.

Timo, should we use $20+ FAAB on you?

There is a chance he’s quite valuable for the next three games with the United trip followed by Brentford at home and a trip to Goodison. Those are defenses where a forward with Werner’s unique set of skill (speed) can feast simply through volume and dumb luck. Upon his move, and before Son Heung-min (Asian Cup) and James Maddison (injury) are back in the fold he is a low-end FWD2 in the Brennan Johnson (7.21 PPM; 1g 4a 835’). It’s worth noting that Werner is not even a regular starter for Leipzig where he has two starts and 207’ in Bundesliga action this season. He won’t see the pitch for a full-strength Spurs side.

6 January: Jota, the Portuguese forward currently an unregistered foreigner for Saudi side Al-Ittihad, has been the subject of winter speculation with his former manager in need of January reinforcement to keep the Top 4 chase alive. Football365:

Signed for £25m from Celtic in the summer, Jota is currently limited to playing AFC Champions League games for Al-Ittihad. Nuno Espirito Santo – before moving to Nottingham Forest – decided not to select the 24-year-old as one of his eight foreign players to compete in the Saudi Pro League. Which of course begs the question: why sign more than eight foreign players if they can’t play?

Ange Postecoglou may offer the guy who thrived under him at Celtic a Spurs escape route.

Jota, more than Werner, would have been an intriguing signing with Ange-ball having led to the 24 year old taking the next step forward. Jota scored 21 league goals and added 20 assists for Celtic across back-to-back title seasons in which he made 51 Scottish Premiership starts.

If Jota does make it into the EPL on a side where he’s getting starts, I’d be happy to drop some serious FAAB on him and he is a Waiver Wire 1 player.

5 January - I missed that Ben Brereton Diaz had completed his loan signing from Villareal to Sheffield United and was a 72’ substitute in the Blades 4-0 away win over Gillingham in the FA Cup. The Stoke-born Chile international made 14 La Liga appearances for the bottom-half side but managed only two starts and was without a league goal or assist. If he hadn’t moved to Spain, but instead had used his time at Blackburn as a springboard directly to a Premier League move, I likely would have been fairly high on him as a player capable of scoring 10-goals for a bottom half side if he made 30+ starts. The numbers in the Championship (22g, 3a in 3,066’ followed by 14g, 4a in 3,457’ over the last two seasons) were largely in-line with his expected results (20.0 xG 2.8 xAG followed by 11.9 xG and 4.0 xAG) which bodes well for a player still 24 years old.

Sheffield United is, in some ways, an ideal landing spot for FPL value during the run-in as the club has significantly under-performed with only 15 goals (16.2 xG) in the opening 20 fixtures. With Tuesday waivers still to process on 9 January, I’m likely not spending anything above a bottom half pick on him and then only if I need a FWD 2/3 with minimal upside. The highest scoring Blades player this season has been Gustavo Hamer (7.3 PPM) and adding another starter-quality attacking player should boost Hamer, Oli McBurnie and Cameron Archer’s value, not cannibalize it. This team is getting relegated and may only managed 14-15 more goals all season, but in 18 games it’s certainly possible that Brereton is directly involved in 30-40% of them, ending the year back in the Championship but with 3-4 goals and 3-4 assists.