Open Thread: Stick or Twist

updates on Aguero, ASM, Havertz and Pereira

This week’s Open Thread is going to feature a lot of Sam, Mikel and Ole - I can already feel it. We’re all worried about under-performing players, the fixture congestion that’s coming, and the questions around a January transfer window perhaps unlike any we’ve ever seen. I did already write this week at length about the Allardyce appointment at West Brom, the under-performance of Arsenal on the pitch and your fantasy league, and ran the rule over Timo Werner. To see all that and more, pick up a subscription.

Welcome sights in the last week included Said Benrahma continuing to start, Cengiz Under earning a start and Alex Iwobi notching an assist. Let’s not look too closely at how Said and Cengiz fared in midweek and just assume it was amazing.

jeffcostanxa@jeffcostanxa

@FantasyGaffer The unDROPPABLES - Stick or twist on Havertz, Aguero, ASM, Ricardo Pereira etc etc

2:56 PM · Dec 16, 2020

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2 Likes

Ok since Jeff isn’t the only one asking about these guys, lets cover them all before opening up to your questions.

Kai Havertz - COVID

That’s it. That’s his whole definition until he demonstrates that he’s healthy. I have no idea when that will happen - truthfully and terrifyingly even IF it will happen - and what Frank Lampard will do in the interim. What I do know is this is not the same Kai we saw in Germany. Could some of this be down to the tactics? Or adapting to a new country and team? And fitting into a system predicated on rotation of roles and personnel? Yes to all of it. But the kid is uniquely talented. He’s 21 and he posted 17 goals (with three assists) in his age 19 season. That’s insane. His career non-penaltyxG+xA/90’ is 0.44 and that includes this year!

Do me, and yourself, a favor and just readjust your expectations. Pretend he tweaked his knee GW2 and he’s still working back into form. Just because we can’t see the underlying damage and recovery doesn’t mean it isn’t there and impacting him. We have a frame of reference for traditional injuries - just apply that same frame here. I’m buying Havertz at a steep discount everywhere I can and stashing him for the final 15 matches of the season. And I’m trying to get Mason Mount in too, because kid has benefitted massively and done nothing to disappoint as his internal competition can’t stay on the field.

Sergio Aguero, F (99% selected, 6.5 points)

There’s an old adage in fantasy sports that you’d rather cut a guy a season too early than hold them a season too long. I specifically cited that adage this summer when ranking Aguero; I specifically noted I was ignoring it; I specifically fucked up. This team will welcome Kun back when he’s fit. I don’t know when that will be. This team will score boatloads more goals - they’re 4th in team xG (20.2) - once the luck turns a bit. City this year have 18 goals from 20.2 xG; Chelsea have 26 on 21.8 xG; Leicester have 24 from 19.9 xG. You can’t get value for him but trading him to Jesus’ owner is likely better than dropping him for a waiver pick in 12-team leagues. In 10-team and particularly 8-team or smaller, he’s a BEN5 or can be cut if you need starters due to rotation.

Allan Saint-Maximin, M (94% selected, 70.5 points)

Woooboy you do not like to flip over to Premier Injuries and read this:

Nov 27: "Allan unfortunately picked up a calf injury. He was complaining about it before training, and then afterwards he wasn't right. We'll see how bad it is over the next couple of days."

That’s the latest update from Ben Dinnery and company and given Ben’s obsessive nature and close ties with (and affinity for) Newcastle United, I’m taking it as gospel. Only 1g, 1a in an injury plagued season as ASM continues to otherwise deliver for FPL draft managers playing in Togga-style scoring. This isn’t a drop, or a trade, it’s a mournful gaze at the part of your lineup card where you want him, then a quick scroll down to find him wallowing on your bench. ASM, like Kai Havertz, is a trade target for me if I can get them for pennies on the dollar knowing at some point I’m getting 15 absolutely gold-dusted returns. He hasn’t played since GW9 and doesn’t have a return date as yet; that’s a tough pill to swallow but take your medicine now and your points later.

Ricardo Pereira, D (87% selected, 0 points)

He came back sooner than expected and sooner than one pundit - THIS GUY - thought was wise and, whaddaya know he’s injured. This time it’s a hamstring, which should heal with rest, and just a short bit of it. I’ve you’ve held Ricardo this long, or added him when his initial return was confirmed, you’re in the catbird seat (I cannot fathom why this is a saying, but it is). I’m not expecting regular playing time until the New Year which means missing out on clashes with Spurs (a) and United (H) which frankly weren’t that appetizing for a player coming off a long injury anyway. Hold and hope against hope that Brendan Rodgers learns an ounce of humility (and keeps running out Barnes and Under in the attacking midfield!)

Who else do you want to know about? As always this post and the comments are open to everyone, so jump in now!