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Dave T's avatar

Hi John, I have a question question and a comment. In my 8-team OFPL I took Chilwell in the 5th and now Alonso started this week. Not entirely unpredictable, but the goal has me nervous. Should I try and grab Alonso on waivers and just hold him as the handcuff. I’d be okay losing the 5th D since I have TAA, Shaw and Coufal as my other D.

Also I took your boy Benramha in the 8th round and got made fun of. Nobody had really heard of him. Clearly I could have taken him later, but let me tell you the G and A felt sweet today and I let them know!

Thanks for your work,

Dave

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John Wallin's avatar

BEHRAHMA!!!! Yeah, I think Alonso is a fine add as a handcuff for Chilwell. If the transfer rumors for Marcos Alonso weren't so strong, he would have still been listed as a top 25 defender because his PPM upside is so high. I know I already tweeted this, but I was shocked his ownership was 40% AFTER it was announced he was starting. He is the most streamable defender on the market and should legitimately been 100% owned for the match this weekend. Do not be precious with your defenders, especially not your DEF4/5 and absolutely stream high-upside defenders all season long whenever they start (that goes for City CB Stones, Liverpool LB Tsimikis and any number of other defenders).

Ok, that's the last answer for this thread. New Open Thread posts Wednesday.

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G R's avatar

What's a reasonable bid value for Varane? Considering 10 team league, and I'm not fantastic on defenders: Doherty, Reguilon, Christiensen, Ricardo

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John Wallin's avatar

15-20% of your total FAAB or thereabouts; you know your league best but I’m not breaking the bank. Is Romero already gone? Matip? I think there are other players in 10-team you can stream and get similar value but it’s worth some $$ just to put it to bed and have a DEF2/3 you run out every week.

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Jake's avatar

The way my draft fell I ended up going a little FWD heavy and now think I need to try to move some. Currently have Jota, Iheanacho, Benrahma, Armstrong, Maupay, Bailey. There are worse problems to have but need to improve my mids a little so was curious which of those I should try to keep and which you would be okay trying to trade out.

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John Wallin's avatar

With trades like that there are two considerations: how much depth do you want to keep at the position of strength and what is the level of player you’re replacing elsewhere?

For example, if i want to keep three strong starting FWD, you’re looking at trading Armstrong or Maupay who are likely your bottom two. what will that net you in trade? Can you get a Jarrod Bowen or Android Townsend? Ok that makes sense. What if it can only land you a Rashica? Would Rashica start in your midfield or is he depth?

Maybe your midfield is all guys that are question marks and swapping Leon Bailey for Saint-Maximin is on the table - determine if you’re better off starting ASM plus your FWD3 or Bailey + Mid that ASM would replace.

Once you work through those questions you’ll likely realize you know which player(s) you’re ok trading and what value you have to get in return.

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Mehran Sami's avatar

Hi - I just became a paid subscriber. Can I get access to this shared doc?

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Jo's avatar

Its good to be back Jon! Need some advice on my team,

Drafted 8th went:

Sancho

Maddison

Saint

Raul

Toney

Benrahma

Rodrigo M

Solly March

Doherty

Moura

Matip

CHO

Mwepu

B. Traore

Konate

Zinchenko

Need to drop someone for a keeper, any thoughts on the team and who to drop. Cheers!

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John Wallin's avatar

missed this one but in 8-team

you could/can drop any of those defenders and CHO (and Mwepu honestly, i love him but in a league that small his skill set wont win you many matches)

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Jo's avatar

Forgot to say 12 man league! I ended up dropping Konate at team news. Question on Dennis - how much are you willing to pay for him of the waiver wire? Hes getting hyped up but hes not doing that every week, is it worth letting someone else blow their FAAB or are you doing all you can to get him?

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David's avatar

Afternoon Gaffer! OFPL draft tonight n I’ve gone back n forth on this strategy question n wanted to get ur take. Using the strategy of 7 FWD/MIDs in the 1st 7 rounds in ur personal opinion are u more likely to draft best player available or chase the inevitable early run on FWD’s? The position is just so thin in OFPL I was wondering how u would approach it?

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John Wallin's avatar

It’s a balancing act. If you can take Salah and Grealish w. your first two picks and then you’re choosing between a FWD1 or MID3 i take the FWD. if it’s a third MID1 or FWD3 I probably take the MID and then know I’ll be looking to scoop late value at FWD (you know the names but can add Armstrong there in OFPL scoring too). But if is a closer decision between Trossard and Jiménez (who i have ranked lower) Id take Jiménez because the two are close in my mind and I want to get that FWD1 settled.

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David's avatar

Exactly what I needed 2 hear! Thank u!

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Drumm's avatar

12 Man league in Fantrax. For forwards, scoring favors goal, assist, shot on target and starts. Trying to decide between A Armstrong, Trincao and Daka from FA. What are your thoughts?

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John Wallin's avatar

Armstrong, Daca, then Trincao

Armstrong is one of the biggest volume shooters out there and I don’t think his total g/a will be there at the end of the season but he will get the most opportunity in that group and is not shy about launching shots whenever he gets a chance (nearly 5 per game last season in the championship)

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David's avatar

Afternoon Gaffer. Any thoughts on Adam Armstrong? Who u rate him higher/lower than? Also where would u put Tammy Abrahams value if a move to Arsenal goes to thru?

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John Wallin's avatar

Mike and I discussed this at length here: https://soundcloud.app.goo.gl/LHhKaAxo6cVNpzix5

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David's avatar

Good stuff man! Thx

U guys need 2 take this thing on YouTube!

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Eric's avatar

Hi Gaffer - For your Fantrax Top 200, do you have a screenshot of the scoring you rank them on? I want to compare that to the scoring in our league, as I'm not sure if they've made any significant changes that may sway my rankings based on yours.

Thanks!

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John Wallin's avatar

Its basically the same as the two minor modifications they made to claim its “fixed” and “original” but is really just Togga scoring (but slightly worse).

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Maldongo's avatar

Starting a new draft where you pick 11 and your stuck with it the entire season. No subs or trades allowed. Which teams and players would be made worse in your list with this rule?

Man City rotating a lot would be a pain. So would holding midfielders that start 30+ games be more valuable?

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John Wallin's avatar

I would not alter my draft approach one bit. I want the very best XI, and I would happily take the 'rotation concern' guys when they fall to me. This game is a crapshoot in the best of circumstances and what you've described is pretty damn far from the best of circumstance; injuries, transfers, rotation, unexpected cup matches/fixture congestion, COVID, I mean who the hell knows.

Is this a h2h league that plays 38 times in a straight table league? Is is a total points league? Is it h2h but with 3/4/5 weeks of playoffs? Is there any redraft option? What if you lose 1/2 your team to transfer in January?

I mean, I'd rather roll the dice on 30 games of Raheem Sterling than 38 games of Che Adams.

I do think that ELITE (and I mean truly ELITE) defenders need to get bumped up. Only the top 8-12. After that, I would not draft another defender until the final two rounds. I would not take more than 3 DEF and I would absolutely figure out if a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 was looking stronger as the draft unfolded. I would not make the decision beforehand.

Good luck - this sounds a lot like the draft version of prison. You only do two days, the day you go in (draft day) and the day you come out (championship Sunday). For my own sanity I wouldn't even watch the season after I did a draft like this. just pick up like lawn bowling and tennis or something.

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Maldongo's avatar

I appreciate the honesty! 😂

Luckily it's only a minor draft and total score only at the end of the season. Real one is being done properly. We're just throwing money into a pit for this one!

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John Wallin's avatar

Been asked a couple times for an update Top 200 OFPL. There isn't much changed overall, TBH but here are some significant changes:

1. Lukaku - if he is available when you draft he is a Top 10 overall player. I slot him FW2 behind ONLY Harry Kane and would take him 10/11 overall ahead of Riyad Mahrez.

2. Werner - has to fall because of playing time, not concerns of production. Because the position is so thin, I only have him dropping behind Watkins and is still a top 5 forward just ahead of Firmino in the overall draft.

3. Bailey - rated a Midfielder, Leon Bailey is my M24, bumping Youri Tielemans down a spot. The thing here is, any of those 3-4 names can easily be selected over the others and you can feel good about it. Barnes has the injury concern, Tielemans doesn't get as many g/a as the others, Bailey hasn't shown he can play 2,500+ minutes at the top flight. But all have great upside, as well.

4. Cristian Romero - he is a top 25 defender and can actually replace Keane directly in the ranks. Keane drops over playing time concerns with Mina and Godfrey there to take minutes.

5. Andy Robertson - I don't ever recommend making snap decisions on dropping a player based on an indeterminate absense but it's hard to keep Robbo ahead of Cancelo, Dias, VVD and Shaw. I would not have him drop out of the Top 10 defenders and there will be some leagues where I get him at a discount. Time will tell if that works.

6. Ryan Bertrand - if you don't mind taking him late knowing you're going to drop him once Castagne is healthy, you can add Bertrand to your plans BUT I would not do that at the expense of a season-long starter. Ricardo + Castagne are the starter fullbacks there. Justin is out with his knee injury until November (or later).

Ok - that should catch everyone up.

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Jordan L-C's avatar

With Lukaku coming, what does that do to Werner? Had him fall far in my draft and I picked him, but I’m not excited right now.

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John Wallin's avatar

I just wrote about that in the article on my drafts but the Werner issue isn't complicated so much by Lukaku's pending arrival than the lack of outgoing transfers.

If he falls into a role where he's starting 28-32 times a season either as the No. 9 or out to one wing he'll have plenty of value in this side. This season could be an interesting one for team offenses with City and Liverpool obviously have a shot at 80+ goals, but Chelsea and Man United could also challenge.

The last time we had that was like 2016-17. I'm looking forward seeing how many players can pop 400 points this season.

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Mitch's avatar

I paid $40 for this. How do I get to the Shared Docs?????

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John Wallin's avatar

Hi Mitch, all subscribers were sent an email with the google doc link. If you'd like me to resend, please just email me at fantasygaffer@gmail.com with your preferred email and I'll do that now. thanks for your support!

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EPL_GUY's avatar

10 man first pick do I stick to MIDs first 3 rounds?

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John Wallin's avatar

You can certainly make that case. If you've looked at the mock drafts you'll see that top end M are flying off early; there is some depth at mid-tier forward which makes that more appealing than relying on unsexy scorers like March, McNeil and Dallas. Those guys get it done every week but never with massive scores.

If you DO go in thinking M/M/M and a value pick falls to you (like if Werner or Baily are sitting there for you at RD3-Pick1 I'd be hard pressed to select Pascal Gross of either of them....

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GregRed's avatar

8 team draft, 8th pick and need some help.

Which two of grealish mount son lukaku raphinha? One wrinkle is auto subs and locked lineups which moves me away from Grealish

Also is it possible to go mid mid to start, go forward forward in the 3rd and 4th (Adama and Antonio) and be competitive. Worries about the lack of goals to truly compete for a title But good forwards are available in the middle rounds

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John Wallin's avatar

I've now spent more time thinking about this question than I do most of my own draft picks! I actually like Grealish MORE for a league with Autosubs because the 8-10 matches when he doesn't feature you get the points off the bench. I did cover exactly this question in an article this summer but I could not find it quickly. The same is true for Mount - he's going to get 30-32 starts and probably will not be used as a sub more than 1-2 times.

Hard to dislike Lukaku with the first pick in the 2nd round, but if you're drafting strictly off my ranks I'd be targeting a F/M but Son + Sancho.

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GregRed's avatar

Really appreciate the response. Son and Mount were gone so I went early so went with Lukaku and Grealish at 8 9.

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NivekBus's avatar

Where can I find the top 200 list?

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John Wallin's avatar

After you subscribe you receive an email to our shared document. It will also automatically appear in your Recent Documents under your Google drive if you subscribed using a gmail or google address. thanks to everyone for the support!

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