Opening Weekend + Transfer Madness
Kane is off to Germany, Caicedo is off to ???
Erling Haaland? Still good. Bukayo Saka? Still good. Solly March and Kaoru Mitoma? You guessed it: good. While plenty of players didn’t start the 2023-24 season with a goal or assist, the start to this season looked more like the end of last year than we’ve seen in the recent past. Without further changes to the transfer deadline in England, a global pandemic (at least not one that anyone is paying the least bit of public attention to; stay safe out there y’all - people still getting hella ill), or a looming winter world cup, this season will be the most normal one since 2018-19.
As much as fantasy managers complain about squad rotation later in the season, there’s nothing quite like opening the starting line-ups in game week one and seeing names you were positive to be nailed-on starters starting from the bench. Jack Grealish got zero minutes. Eddie Nketiah was preferred to Leandro Trossard (a 73’ substitution) and hit a first-half goal on a lovely assist from Gabriel Martinelli. At least I was right that Ben White would shift inside to partner William Saliba.
Elsewhere, Justin Kluivert made his debut from the bench while want-away striker Aleksandar Mitrović lost his starting place to Fulham’s new hitman Raúl Jiménez. The Cottagers manager reiterated his belief that Mitro was committed to the club following their rejection of a Saudi bid; Marco Silva also confirmed that no Saudi bid was ever received for Willian, who did start Saturday. In the end, Mitro did make it onto the field but it was Bobby De Cordova-Reid who pocketed the only goal, and that off a Pereira assist.
Injuries aside, it was a bit of a surprise to see Newcastle’s starting XI include Isak in the centre-forward spot flanked by Almiron and Gordon while new boy Harvey Barnes and last year’s top scorer Callum Wilson (18 goals) got sat down. Wilson was also third on the club with five EPL assists (Trippier, 7; Willock, 6) raising immediate questions about his season-long value. The Toon were quickly off the mark through Sandro Tonali, but the goal came after build-up between Tripper and Isak, demonstrating that duo’s strong link in play. There’s no panic after week 1 here, but this is reminder that Newcastle’s ambitions and deep pockets will increase competition and the rotation of the squad once Champions League and domestic cups start.
Within 20’ it was Tonali again involved, sending in a neat cross that was cut back by Sven Botman directly into the path of Isak who drove it home decisively. Toon hit 68 goals last season (72 xG as a team, 4th in EPL) while the +32.4 xG-expected goals allowed (xGA) was 2nd in the league. It may be there are 6-7 attackers in this side that all need to be rostered and streamed from the bench whenever Eddie Howe elects to start them; with that upside will come some anguish and need to week-to-week management.
What Further Twists Will Turn?? (Or, how I learned to stop worrying and love Moise Caicedo’s management team)
We are still more than two week away from Transfer Deadline Day, but the madness has truly gripped the league. Moises Caicedo was the subject of an open bidding process that saw Liverpool announce they’d had a bid accepted, but not agreed personal terms. From there, well, it got squirrelly. Perhaps the biggest “revelation” was the re-surfacing of how his Brighton move came together.
Caicedo’s departure from Brighton will hurt, no doubt, but that club is custom-built for massive turnover and another name or five will be through the doors before you know it. In the short-term, this almost certainly means more minutes for James Milner and Billy Gilmour, who started alongside Mo Dahoud in the final friendly.
Igor and James Milner are named on the bench in the final pre-season run out.
Billy Gilmour and Mo Dahoud are the starting midfield duo.
Albion: Steele; Gross, Webster, Dunk, Estupinan; Gilmour, Dahoud; March, Pedro, Mitoma; Welbeck. Subs: Verbruggen, McGill, Igor, Milner, Enciso, Lallana, Alzate, Adingra, Ferguson, van Hecke, Veltman, Buonanotte
Welbz the loan striker, expected. I’ll admit, Pascal Gross starting in the back four threw me for a loop. For their first match against newcomers Luton Town, it was back to business as usual, with the notable addition of James Milner in the back four.
Trash way to announce your team; typical for Seagulls. Flying rat-ass birds. Gross was lined-up on the same side as Solly March, with some encouraging news and his inclusion in a holding midfield pair with Gilmour, with significant defensive duties ahead of the makeshift back four significantly hampers the attacking upside which saw the German lead the club in goals+assists (9+8). João Pedro lined up next to Welbeck in a more traditional 4-4-2 at the start, but was playing in the second-striker role between Mitoma and March in the now routine 4-2-3-1. This team looked well-oiled despite two big name departures in the engine room which is nice but this is a team which may frustrate owners when they’re not lined up against relegation fodder. Some of those frustrations can go away with a bit of typically shrewd transfer business.
On the other end, Caicedo’s move to [Insert Club Here] is great news for fantasy managers invested in [Blankity blank blank] because they’ll largely be relieved of tireless two-way play. Caicedo is one of those rare players who elevate the play of those around them for fantasy purposes without having particularly much FPL draft value himself. Regardless of the move being to Liverpool, Chelsea, or an as yet unknown third club, the attacking players in the squad will all get a small bump in FPL draft value - more if it’s to Liverpool where Caicedo immediately cures the biggest crack in the perennial title-challenging club’s foundation.
Kane To Bayern (finally) Confirmed
The news is welcome for everyone in FPL except those with the 30 year old England captain leering back at them from their draft day sheets. Fair play to Spurs for running game well and getting the price they wanted for a, again, THIRTY year old striker in his final year under contract. Even more impressive that the club was resolved to lose him; planned to replace him; didn’t drop their asking price.
"I had a conversation with Harry the first day I arrived, he was upfront and honest and I was the same. You kind of get an indication that he had made up his mind that if the clubs agreed a deal, he would go. His emphasis was [to resolve his future] before the first game, that was mine as well, and there's been nothing along the way that made me feel like there was anything else other than this outcome." -Ange Postecoglou
Fantasy managers need to get ready for the Richarlison era to start in earnest. Son Heung-min is the new captain (Romero and Maddison the two VC) and it will now be up to the attacking phenom to shoulder the clubs ambitions in the same manner he’s carried his home nation for the past half-decade. Between the two, they’ll need to fill most of the void left by Kane who scored (30) or assisted (3) 48% of Spurs’ 68 EPL goals last season. In their most recent friendly, a 4-2 loss against Barcelona, we got a brief glimpse of what the formation and tactics could be. And it nearly paid off with Spurs collapsing in magnificent fashion, conceding three unanswered goals in the final 10’ + added time.
On Sunday, away to Brentford in what could prove an important battle for a European spot, Spurs lined up like this.
I’ll cover the issue of Pedro Porro not startingin a later column, and Emerson Royal starting and scoring, but that was most unnerving given the high draft capital needed to acquire him. I do still think he wins the job, and will prove good value for the season. The Son/Jimmy Backpack/Kuuuuulu front three is going to provide huge returns this year. If you’ve invested, you’ll be fine. I don’t expect Bissouma and Skipp to retain the center partnership for the full season, but they are defensive specialists and may be needed to track further back. At times, this side played closer to a 2-4-3-1, even after Romero went off injured to be replaced by Davinson Sánchez.
The Bees finished a single point behind Tottenham last term, scoring 12 fewer but conceding 17 less, posting a +17 which was 7th in the EPL and as good as the two clubs ahead of them, combined (Spurs finished 8th with +7; Villa finished 7th with +5). If Postecoglou in not able to replace Kane’s 30 goals, he could achieve similar results by simply tightening the 15th worst defense in the league enough to be in the top-half of goals permitted.
Injuries Mar Opening Weekend
The first week back held bad fortune for some. Jurrien Timber was forced off of Arsenal’s 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest, replaced by Takehiro Tomiyasu on 50’.
This is a spot where Arsenal already had injury concerns with Oleksandr Zinchenko unavailable for Saturday's match with a calf injury. It appeared to be a contact injury following a couple of hard challenges, which is more reassuring than the dreaded “non-contact” injury which often means significant ligament damage and a lengthy recovery. This position figured to have heavy competition with Ben White - shifted to CB today - also more than capable of playing on that wing. Arsenal chocked away a clean sheet here but the starting back four against Crystal Palace and Fulham will be good value as streaming DEF4 so this is a situation worth watching.
Aston Villa lost Tyrone Mings in the opening half. Having already conceded to Newcastle twice on the road, Mings was lightly clattered, but his legs buckled under his own weight at full speed as he attempted to hold off the attacker and settle the ball. He was stretchered off before the half-hour mark and must be set for a protracted recovery period. New signing Pau Torres came on to replace him and Unai Emery will need him to be the stalwart presence Mings has been: 33, 36, 35 and 35 starts across the last four Premier League season has seen Mings solidified as the most regular name in Villas team sheet regardless of the manager.
Torres was similarly ever-present for Villareal, making 133 La Liga starts across the past four seasons. In that time, the Spain international scored 10 goals with four assists but is coming off his worst attacking season in that span with just one goal and zero goals in 3,054’. He is immediately a low Waiver priority if you need a DEF3/4, but ideally you’re targeting him as a free agent pick up the morning after waivers run.
I know what you’re thinking: KDB *did* come off injured and didn’t get a mention? I’m working on a KDB-specific post which will be out this week. The quick hit is that he’s likely done for 8-10 weeks, is 32 years old, and came with a massive injury warning all summer long. The team has been chasing Lucas Paqueta and that would be a great addition, but he’s not KDB. Bernardo Silva has been strongly linked with an exit for the third consecutive summer but despite the incredible depth available, it seems unlikely that Pep could lose Ilkay Gundogan, Riyad Mahrez, Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne all in the same summer (and yes, I’m writing it that way because KDB is going to struggle with this injury all season long. If you’re the unlucky one who ended up with him in the draft, buckle up, it’s going to be a long year).
What transfer rumors are you monitoring? Which players have caught your eye in GW1? How are you managing your roster between today and Deadline Day? Leave your comments to help shape the content you’re getting!