Rasmus Højlund Heads To Manchester

Plus: reader questions on Szoboszlai and Son

“Where would you rank Rasmus Højlund?” Moments after my Top 200 published I was already inundated with one question, sparked by Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag’s quest to answer his own. Unlocking the final level of United’s attack under EtH requires a potent No. 9, and none of the current crop of attackers seemed to fit his bill of particulars (for what it’s worth - my current, very high, No. 7 overall rank on Marcus Rashford was based, in part, on my belief in Rashford and, in part, on the evidence available at the time that he was by default the best option to be EtH’s No. 9 this term. Down the shoot you slide, Marcus.)

Between the final pass on the Top 200 ranks - see the shared doc - and the final editing pass on the accompanying article (and, let’s be perfectly honest, a nice Saturday afternoon nap having woken up dirt early to watch the World Cup), the news that United finally agreed terms with Atalanta had slipped by unnoticed by exactly one person in world football: me.

It’s nicer, oft easier, when the players arriving are those you’ve had a chance to watch play - even nicer when it’s someone like Højlund who’s been linked with a move following his breakthrough campaign in Italy meaning I’ve seen the stats and the comps. 20 starts, nine goals and a pair of assists for the 20 year old Denmark international are a poor measure of his potential and don’t underline well his ability and willingness to be involved in the build-up play, nor how has physical play puts opposition defenses under immense pressure.

Comps to other players are often lazy, and at 6’3” but a reported 175lbs, he is not nearly as imposing Norway’s Erling Haaland (6’4” 200lbs) though he could grow into it. His speed is currently the key - though his finishing isn’t bad either! The Athletic ran a report on his recently which included this quote on his quickness.

“He is so quick; he’s under 11 seconds over 100m — and that’s not even trying very hard. Considering his height (6ft 3in; 191cm), he has a low centre of gravity and can move his legs very fast,” Atalanta head coach Gian Piero Gasperini has said.

And that same post highlighted what I’m about to: he can score chances, something which Manchester United was unable to do last term.

In 2022-23, Manchester United relied on Marcus Rashford (17 goals, 15.4 xG), Bruno Fernandes (6 non-penalty goals, 7.7 non-penxG), Antony (4 goals, 6.6 xG), Anthony Martial (6 goals, 6.2 xG) and Jadon Sancho (6 goals, 4.2 xG). In all, the club generated 67.7 xG and scored 56 goals, a miserable -11.7 return on their efforts. That’s Everton-level bad. Seriously, the Toffees were -11.2 scoring 34 goals on 45.2 xG. I don’t expect Højlund to solve that issue himself, but having a player capable and confident of converting chances - one which allows Rashford to drop into EtH’s preferred role for him on the wing opposite Sancho/Antony - fits the need.

In a very small sample size, Rasmus was scoring regularly on his expected numbers including 0.47 xG/90’. In all, his nine goals came from 9.5 xG (per FBREF), and if he is able to be, on balance, even with chances created, that places United firmly in the top four discussion again.

FPL Impact

Rashford is down. No. 3 in forward ranks he’ll slide from there to No. 5, behind Harry Kane and Darwin Nunez. Rashford also falls out of the top tier and is now in a group with Gabi Jesus, Luis Diaz and Ollie Watkins.

Antony is down. No. 10 in forward ranks is outside the top 20 now, slotting into No. 25 just behind fellow Eredivisie arrival Cody Gakpo. His production last season didn’t inspire much FPL confidence, though he earned 25 appearances including 23 starts. Inside the top 20 you need either a) steady starts with solid production or b) massive upside if you win the position. Currently, he doesn’t have either. His tier includes players of the Carlton Morris, Dominic Calvert-Lewin ilk.

Rasmus Højlund enters the ranks at No. 18, ahead of Antony, just ahead of Diogo Jota and behind Dominic Solanke, he’ll likely be over-drafted in most leagues (especially if you’ve a United supporter or two).

Sancho (0.32 xG/90’) is rated a midfielder and his rank is unchanged as I believe he will win the job over Antony on the opposite wing - leaving United with a first-choice midfield five of Casemiro, Mount, Rashford, Bruno and Sancho. That’s an impressive collection of names that will need to prove they can play together. To contest the title, they’ll need to also take a step forward and generate an additional 10-15 expected goals with a net 20+ goals on the year likely the target, and necessary to chase down Manchester City.

Christian Eriksen plummets. Mount and Højlund both joining the club pushes the Danish international out of precious minutes as he won’t be first choice in the attacking three or in the midfield pivot partnership with Casemiro. He’s just inside the top 50 midfielders, but is one of the top names on the Watch / Streaming list for this season.

Mr.Mokmok via reddit

Why are we high on szoboszlai? Don't know a ton about him, his stats seem OK, but Liverpool's midfield is notoriously unproductive.

I don’t think it’s accurate to say that Liverpool’ midfield is unproductive, but certainly the players in Liverpool’s recent past that have midfielder designations in FPL haven’t scored the same level of points as other teams. Of course, nearly all of Liverpool’s attacking players have been classified as Forwards since the arrival of Mané and Mo on Merseyside (and they should be, but we can all point to similar players who are rated ‘midfielder’).

Looking only at the stats, and ignoring the tactical responsibility of Reds’ midfielders in the last iteration of Jurgen Klopp’s tactics, it has been just one full season since 2021-22 when both Jordan Henderson and Thiago Silva each recorded five (5) assists. The established preference was for those ‘midfield’ assists to more typically arrive from the overlapping fullbacks and both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson proved capable of delivering truckloads.

So what’s different this year? Klopp has totally overhauled his midfield - sending Henderson and Fabinho out, allowing Roberto Firmino to leave on a free, and seeing the end of James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Naby Keita’s time at LFC. There is opportunity here to remake the tactics with the personnel, a move which Klopp has embraced.

In the pre-season TA-A has been playing as an out-and-out midfielder as the club seek additional reinforcements, but is fully expected to revert to his right-back role once Southampton’s Roman Levia or Bayern’s Ryan Gravenberch arrive to replace Fabinho (or whoever it is; it’s gotta be someone). But a 4-3-3 with Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai either side of a holding midfielder provides greater opportunity for the fullbacks to push into the middle; pairing with the holding midfielder or overlapping the wings. Shifting from a 4-3-3 into a 3-2-2-3 will see

I still expect Mo Salah and Darwin Nunez to claim the lions share of the goals, but Liverpool will feature a more balanced attack and their most balanced attacker is the Hungary international. His stats from last season included six goals and 14 assists for RB Leipzig, coming from 5.5 xG and 8.1 xA. In last year’s LFC side, only Alexander-Arnold (11.5) had more xA than that. Only Mo, Darwin and Trent had an equivalent or greater xG+xA.

One fun feature at FBREF is the ability to compare two players. While imperfect, it is fun to note how Szobo compares to another hybrid midfielder in a new side, where his natural attacking instincts may be best deployed from a less preferred role.

Player Comparison: Mason Mount vs. Dominik Szoboszlai 2022-23

Mount trails Szoboszlai in expected goals and assists (unsurprising given the respective leagues), but also trails him in progressive passes both made and received, passing accuracy, shot accuracy, shots per game, and shot creation where Szobo is creating nearly 2.5 more shots per 90’ than Mount. Of vital importance for Liverpool’s lightening quick counter-attack is that Szobo’s passing is next level: he completed 80% of his 1,580 passes and had only seven (7) passes flagged for offsides. In that same vein, his dead ball delivery is exceptional - has already directly led to goals in pre-season and I fully expect him to assume corner responsibilities. He is the most likely to move into a central playmaker role; has demonstrated an ability to provide link play on the wing, and is capable both to create and finish his own shots.

All this said, a related question may be how I have Mac Allister (No. 26 overall and Midfielder 14). A year ago the Brighton attacker won a World Cup and scored 10 goals with two assists across 2,886’. He actually under-performed both stats (12.1 xG, 4.1 xA). One reason he is a good fit for LFC is that they club thrives on generating a high number of opportunities per game; the competition at Liverpool will not permit him to be as wasteful with Cody Gakpo, Diogo Jota and Harvey Elliot all waiting for a chance to solidify a regular starting role.

something_for_me via reddit

Couple of questions -

Mac Allister vs Barnes vs Gibbs-White...if you had to pick 2, which 2 would it be?

Where would you place Hojlund now that he's confirmed?

My ranks say it's currently Mac Allister and Gibbs-White, and I think that Barnes needs to be third until we see what his exact role is going to be for Eddie Howe. Depending on how LFC's summer transfer business concluded, A Mac could stay there, or could pretty easily fall to third on this list and closer to someone like Said Benrahma - hot on his day, but a fantasy liability when he's not on he score sheet.

Syndicate_III via reddit

That was one hell of an entertaining and interesting read. Well done.

Szoboszlai a bit high for my liking and Son a bit low, but otherwise pretty close to what I have as far as tiers/ranks

Not a question, but the point on Son Hueng-min is a good one and worth addressing here. Sonny is coming off his least productive season since 2015-16, his first year in London. 10 goals with six assists (12 goals, 8 assists in Fantrax which has time locks for scoring decisions but it’s very odd that they have 2 additional goals credited to him). A year prior he was positively unstoppable, hitting a career best 23 league goals with seven assists. The 30 g+a also set a new mark, beating the 27 (17+10) he posted the year prior. Now, some of this is due to injury as he managed a facial fracture for part of the year including the World Cup 2022 before ending the year with needed sports hernia surgery.

If you’re unfamiliar, that is a bad surgery for a player reliant on their acceleration, top-end speed and flexibility. A recovery period of 6-12 weeks is often needed and there are certainly players who’ve never *quite* gotten back to their best. Son is now 31 10,000s of competitive minutes on his C.V. with 10,000s of miles of travel each year for club and country.

“I wondered a lot if I should even make this public, but I struggled with pain all season. I played through it for eight to nine months, but couldn’t go on anymore, so I made the decision finally and underwent surgery,” he said during an interview with TV Chosun, as quoted by Korean football writer Steve Han.

Even with all that, he’s still No. 34 (a top 3 round pick) and the 12th forward in my ranks (that’s FWD1 in 12-team leagues). He is also likely to slot up the ranks into the Top 10 following the arrival of Rasmus Højlund, complicating the path to top-end production for Antony and/or Jadon Sancho (probably Antony). And remember the context of the ranks: we’re still in July and haven’t seen where his recovery it. Jurgen Klinsmann, now his national team manager with South Korea, is optimistic he’ll be fit and playing with the national team this summer - which I really hate to read. The thing Son’s 31 year old, sports hernia recovering body needs least is pointless minutes in international friendlies. Let the man rest.

Have a question?