Solanke to Spurs Confirmed
plus Julian Alverez is out, Emile Smith Rowe is in.
Big names are starting to move, as Bournemouth’s breakout star of the 2023/24 season has signed with Tottenham. Dominic Solanke, now aged 26 and with his fourth Premier League club, has joined Spurs on a six-year contract just months after completing a career-defining 19-goal campaign with the Cherries.
With the integration of better statistics into main stream analysis, it was a pleasure to read this on the Beeb
Solanke was only the 10th player in Premier League history to score as many as 19 goals for a bottom-half team - with no player's goals worth more points to their club than his last season, according to data analysts Opta.
He compares well in other areas as well, ranking fourth in the Premier League for expected goals (xG) in 2023-24 (19.6), third for shots (109) and sixth for touches in the opposition box (239).
Son Heung-min ranked best for Tottenham last season with 85 shots, 12.09 xG and 227 touches in the opposition box.
Solanke's numbers also suggest he is a good fit for Tottenham's intense pressing game, with Spurs one of the few teams who pressed more than Bournemouth last campaign.
Opta say Solanke led the Premier League last season for pressures (1,242), pressures in the final third (703) and pressures in the final third resulting in a turnover (142).
The most important aspect of this transfer is that it is a replacement for Harry Kane’s presence in the center of the attack even if it is not a replacement for the type of player Kane was. Dom hit 19 goals from 19.6 xG (17 non-penalty goals from 17.2 non-pen xG) and three assists on, you guessed it, 3.0 xA. For all the shit I like to chat about Kane, he had only one season in his most recent seven when he didn’t over-perform xG, and most often by a sizeable margin (his final Spur’s EPL campaign was 25 non-pens on 16.7 npxG, that’s huge). Since his exit, Spurs have rightly acknowledged they cannot replace him directly, now what they might do is…
It is my hope that Solanke slots into the front of an attacking five which also includes restoring Son Heung-min to his preferred ‘do anything you want in attack, you’re special’ role while a healthy James Maddison, a newly confident Brennan Johnson and a bourgeoning superstar in Dejan Kulusevski each chip in with a bit of over-performance while permitting Solanke the boatload of opportunities he’ll need to approach 20 EPL goals. My rank on Solanke hasn’t changed, even with his move in clubs. 20 goals and not much else would still see him as a top five option at the position.
Two things coming next: a definite move for Manor Solomon who had only five EPL appearances (199’) and picked up a couple assists; a transfer for Richarlison. While Spurs are unequivocally better with the Brazilian in the fold, it’s hard to believe he’ll be happy seeing even less of the field than he did last season when his EPL starts were limited to 18, five fewer than the Welsh forward Johnson. If Ange Postecoglou elects to retain his 4-2-3-1 formation, sliding Son and Kulu back into the attacking three ahead of two CDMs (Sarr/Bissouma/Bentancur) there will be plenty of opportunity for the five I’ve mentioned who also have enough tactical flexibility and acumen to rotate without much lost productivity. There will be scant chance, absent an injury, for Richarlison.
It would have been nice to see him move in the other direction in a “separate” transaction because Bournemouth now has a glaring hole in their attack. After Solanke, the next best attacking option was 24 year old Antoine Semenyo, who scored eight goals (4.6 xG) and two assists (3.2 xA); if he’s the starter now he jumps from F17 all the way up to…F15. I mean, there’s not much upward movement here possible and I don’t love a team that can be effectively neutered by having Justin Kluivert marked-out of the match.
A player like Richarlison moving Bournemouth also doesn’t move the needle as much as Solanke’s F5 rank, but dependent on who exactly it is - a starter here earning all of Dom’s minutes has a very solid chance to joining Semenyo in the 4th tier of forwards. My absolute favourite rumor is that Tammy Abraham is being targeted from Roma where he basically missed all of last season after a summer 2023 ACL surgery. His first season in Italy was inspired with 17 goals and four assists in 36 Serie A starts but he struggled in 2022/23, with only eight goals (10.8) and three assists (3.6) in 2,189’. That minutes total is shocking considering he played in all 38 matches including 26 starts but was substituted off in all but seven of those. The downside of Abraham is he relies on his teammates to create his chances (fewer than 3 shot creating actions per 90’ in every season, with a 2.88 career best) but that worked well with Solanke who sat at only 2.14 SCA/90’ last year.
UPDATE: 12 August and the Cherries are actively seeking a direct replacement for Solanke.
A Bit of Off-Season Pep Roulette
Julián Álvarez has been confirmed as a departure with a massive transfer from Manchester City to Atlético Madrid booked. I’ve waxed poetic about Álvarez’s season (11g, 11a) before but players with that skill and opportunity are a rare commodity in fantasy Premier League. It stands out that he was not just the third leading scorer for City but was the third highest scorer in FPL draft, outstripping even Rodri, Jeremy Doku and Kevin De Bruyne.
Given that it took 89’ and a bit of Bernardo Silva magic for City to find a lone goal in the Community Shield, I’d be shocked if Pep Guardiola is happy to head into the season without attacking reinforcements. Last year Álvarez made a team best 36 EPL appearances, playing 2,647’ including 15 full matches. That’s plenty of minutes to go around if there isn’t another player through the doors, and an obvious path to a cemented place in the starting XI for a qualified individual. Apart from ‘he’s in the best shape of his life’ posts about Jack Grealish, the immediate impact may be a larger role for Doku who made 29 appearances but only played 1,595’ (btw, Doku’s 0.40 xG+xA/90’ was good for fourth on the team, level with Bernardo Silva) which would be good since I projected him to play more minutes this season as part of his M14 rank.
The rumor mill isn’t quite up to speed here yet, but journalists putting 2+2=11tymillion have already posted Rodrygo to City rumors (and that he’s already rejected a move! Damn, he’s fast!).
The 23 year old Brazilian international is certainly under increased pressure to playing time after the arrival of a some French striker in the Spanish capital, but boy he isn’t exactly a Pep-style move to ink a striker and hand him the keys (Erling Haaland the notable exception).
If he comes, there is a lazy Doku comp that could be made, with a lot of value from carries, and successful integration in the final third of the pitch. While the points would come differently for Rodrygo, 1,500’ in Pep’s attack is big points for anyone and he has more than enough dynamism is his game to enjoy a solid point floor punctuated by big matches when contributing a goal or assist.
Emile Smith Rowe A Cottager
If you were going to pick a quintessentially ‘cottage’ sounding name, Emile Smith Rowe would be quite near the top of the list. Fulham’s biggest summer signing (so far) has a full career still ahead of him, despite being a name we’ve been tracking in fantasy Premier League for nearly a decade. Having turned 24 in July (yeah, twenty-fucking-four), Smith Rowe can look back on a stint with boyhood club Arsenal that never materialized into the success he and we (and undoubtedly his many managers) would have liked. 10 goals in 2021/22 was the high-water mark for production across the board: starts (21), appearances (33), minutes (1,921’), goals (10), and assists (2) with only assists not being a career best mark but his second-highest total. Those numbers are low for career highs and one key question looming is how his game translates to 30 starts in a side bereft of elite talent.
Between 2021-2023, ESR averaged nearly 8 points per match with his 7.7 PPM average in 2020/21 the more important barometer as he achieved that with only two goals and four assists across 1,440’. That scoring would be good to make him an every week starter in FPL as a MID3 and just behind his new teammate, Andreas Pereira (8.84 PPM in 2,606’). While Andreas Pereira is being touted for a summer move back up the table (Chelsea, Aston Villa), Smith Rowe will be hoping that his career enjoys a similar resurgence to the Brazilians who had to leave Manchester United to earn regular playing time for club which led to his call-up to the national side.
Chelsea Put Everyone Up For Sale, Sign Every Available Player
The reports have Wolverhampton’s Pedro Neto set to sign with the Blues, marking the 9th player in with more already reported.
He now looks set to become Chelsea’s ninth summer signing after the arrivals of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Filip Jörgensen, Omari Kellyman, Aaron Anselmino, Renato Veiga, Caleb Wiley, Marc Guiu and Tosin Adarabioyo.
Omorodion – a 20-year-old who is part of Spain’s squad at the Olympics – also looks set to bolster Maresca’s squad after a deal worth £34.5m was agreed with Atlético.
For Wolves, this is a hit but Neto’s injuries in 2023/24 kept him from being involved in more than half the season with 18 starts and 1,516’ all he managed. In typical Neto fashion, he was very involved during him minutes on the pitch with a pair of goals and nine assists. He has only had one (1) year since joining Wolves for the 2019/20 season when he made a full year run. That was 2020/21 when he scored five goals with six assists in 31 appearances (30 starts).
Anyone who is telling you they can predict what Chelsea will look like this year is either out of their mind or Enzo Maresca, or both. Raheem Sterling is linked with Juventus; Josh Ancheampong might graduate straight into a European transfer; Victor Osimhen is reportedly joining to rival Marc Guiu and Nicholas Jackson for minutes; Christopher Nkunku is set to play in an attacking midfield role.
“For me, he played a very good game. We are trying to use him as an attacking midfielder and a striker, depends on the moment. Also, we are using him as a striker today because Marc [Guiu] was tired at the end.
“It’s normal but overall, the important thing for Christo, we are able to contact with him between the lines.” -Enzo Maresca
JFC, it’s only 10 August and I’m typing illegible word salads of possible starting XIs. The note for today is that Neto isn’t moving his position in the ranks and Guiu was entering the ranks just in time to be departing them. Chelsea’s pursuit of Samu Omorodion reportedly has Guiu available for a season-long loan. See what I mean? You gotta be crazy to think you can pick the Blues starting XI when they line up on 1 September against Crystal Palace, half the players in that lineup probably aren’t even in the squad today.
UPDATE: 12 August ahahahahahahahhahahahaha. ha.
