First Look: Top 55 FPL Forwards
An early rank of the top strikers for the 2024/25 fantasy premier league season
Ranking Fantasy Premier League forwards more than a month before the season gets underway is a recipe for disaster. Not the kind of disaster where everything falls apart but the kind where your inbox gets flooded.
This season’s crop of fantasy premier league forwards is closer in construction to the defenders than midfielders, with a handful of truly elite options, a solid, consistent batch inside the top 30, and then a bunch of players you’d rather not have to hitch your wagon to. Unlike with defenders, you will likely need to end the draft with 1-3 depth forwards; a collection of regular starters with low-end upside, a lottery ticket transfer, a youth player looking for a breakout or a promotion play who is charged with staving off an immediate relegation.
Player Position Ranks are Live with Top 200 Live Soon
Fit and firing
The double-double had a banner year with six forwards notching at least 10 goals and 10 fantasy assists last season. Just outside of that group are a collection of near-elite fantasy options including Bryan Mbeumo (9 goals, 7 assists), Raheem Sterling (8 goals, 8 assists), Matheus Cunha (12 goals, 7 assists) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (16 goals, 7 assists). I’m targeting multiple of these players, together with a couple others covered below.
From this quartet, I have Mateta highest and as a FWD1 not only based on the strength of his breakout campaign, but that he has plenty of upside left based on increased playing time. Back in his age 22 season, Mateta bagged 14 Bundesliga goals with Mainz. That was 2018/19 and came on the heels of a 17 goal haul for Le Harve in Ligue 2. Since then he struggled to get minutes with 1,145’ in 2021/22 being his most action until making 35 appearances (25 starts) for 2,282’ last season. His 0.83 g+a/90’ included a 2/2 record from the penalty spot, and in all he collected 14 non-penalty goals from 9.4 non-pen xG. Last season he finished 15 in total points for forwards and his 10 PPG made him an every week starter; if he can add 4-5 starts this season and bump his minutes closer to 2,800’ there is every reason to believe he’ll finish inside the top 10 at his position.
Bryan Mbeumo also may have another gear he’s yet to find. With the return of Ivan Toney from suspension, Brentford have a full compliment of attacking players. Back in 2022/23, Mbeumo made 36 starts and racked up an impressive nine goals with eight assists. Last season he only made only 22 starts, played 1,000 fewer minutes and scored nine goals with seven assists. You may think that keeping his g+a level while decreasing his minutes would result in a sharp uptick in his per-match scoring average, but it did not. While the Bee’s forward did see an increase, he went from 10.2 to 11.0 PPM, hardly a massive jump correlating to a 30% decrease in minutes and starts. He’s ranked this year on his expected performance, but there should be recognition that if he puts his full-field -productivity of 2022/23 with his scoring efficiency from last term, he could be a 12 PPM player which is rarified air.
One level down from those four players are Brennan Johnson (5 goals, 12 assists) and Diogo Jota (10 goals, 7 assists), a couple of players who I personally value highly and nearly always end up drafting above their ranks. The skill set for the two players, while not identical, is similar. Both are capable of playing on the wing with Jota showing greater aptitude for sliding into a traditional midfielder role. The have a deft touch, are not wasteful with their shots. Jota scored his 10 EPL goals on just 41 total shots, keeping 19/41 (46.3%) on frame, while out-performing his 5.3 xG by a factor of two. Johnson went the other way last year, getting pretty unlucky to covert only five goals from 10.3 non-penalty xG but still managed to score on 1/10th of his 50 total shots. Like Jota, he was accurate with 19/50 (38%) on target and his season looks a lot different if he had performed closer to his xG, something he managed in his final two years with Forest. I like both of these guys and would be happy with either in my roster as a FWD3.
In fact, most of if not all of the fifth tier in my ranks will be regular starters in 10-team leagues. The mix of proven players and those still looking to establish their Premier League bona fides happens every year, but this year the fifth tier is disproportionately unproved as a reliable fantasy commodity which may impact how you develop your mid-round strategy.
Endgame, but like, way less exciting
If you’re siting in Round 12 of a 10-team draft, staring at a decimated list of sleepers, it’s easy to grab a player thinking you’ll just drop him back to waivers. This is when you may want to grab a class of players conventionally known as post-hype sleepers. These are guys we’ve touted, put outsized expectations on and watched as our frustrations mirrored their under-performance. Last season, Cam Archer was sold to Sheffield United where he played 29 times (21 starts) and scored a mere four goals with one assist. Following the Blades relegation, Aston Villa activated their buyback clause, and he is once more in the fold at Villa Park. He turned 23 on 21 July and he is perhaps unlikely to stay with Unai Emery’s team beyond the summer deadline. If he moves back to the Championship, this would be a wasted pick, but we were high on Cam a year ago because of his 11 goal, six assist turn for Middlesboro in 2022/23 when he bagged those returns in just 1,368’. With ample questions in attack for a handful of current Premier League sides, a fruitful move may yet materialize.
The great unranked
Darwin Núñez (potential suspension), Callum Wilson (injury), Julian Alvarez, Luis Diaz, Richarlison, and Gabriel Jesus (all heavily linked with transfer this summer) and Savinho (I just don’t see him earning enough minutes at this age under Pep) are all unranked in the current player position ranks. If we had all of them fit and firing today, in their existing roles on their current teams Darwin would be a top 10 striker.
I have him 6th, behind Dominic Solanke and with a massive caveat that he is one of the most goal-dependent strikers in the game. Fortunately, he’s also one of the most lethal strikers - scoring goals, menacing crossbars, mercilessly condemning footballs to exile in the upper most reaches of stadia the world over. Playing within the existing Klopp system he hit 11 goals with 11 assists (8 real assists + 3 fantasy) last year, nearly equaling his career high of nine from age 21 season with Benfica. Arne Slot is going to need Núñez, especially if fellow unrankee Luis Diaz does leave Merseyside this summer, which makes a late first or early second round selection a risk worth taking.
Behind him, but only slightly, is Julián Álvarez a year after he and Haaland both finished in the top five in scoring at the position. He was one of six strikers who hit double-digits in both goals (11) and assists (11).
The rumors of Álvarez swapping City blue for Chelsea blue (or possibly Arsenal? why?) would have some outsized impact on the top end of the ranks and would likely even adversely impact Álvarez until he found his footing in the new team. At age 24 he has never struggled to score, but the assists and key passes (67!) last year - just one shy of Son’s 68 which led all FPL forwards - were instrumental in securing his elite value.
For both Richarlison and Gabby Jesus, the rumors have them leaving the Premier League entirely, making it far more risky to spend any significant draft capital. That equation also needs to consider the limited returns from each last season with Richarlison (8.28 PPM, 30th in total points at forward) and Jesus (8.23 PPM, 34th) posting nearly identical lines as FWD4. If you’re drafting them purely on returns, neither can be taken inside the top 100 picks; on upside you may be able to move up a round, or three. But given the risk, I have each outside the top 100 and would not consider taking either before the top 40 forwards are gone. That’s everyone ranked down to Callum Hudson-Odoi and includes both Darwin and Álvarez.
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