In recent seasons promoted teams have done more than survive, they have thrived in England’s top flight producing FPL talent across all four positions. This season I’m deviating slightly from the format of review, instead of covering each team in order, I’ve scouted, rated and ranked the players by position.
Goalkeepers:
Arijanet Muric, age 24 (Burnley) GK 16
After starting 41 times for Vincent Kompany’s title-winning side, Muric’s spot as the No. 1 is apparently not assured as the keeper himself referenced in an interview with Burnley Express. A 76.6% save rate, 17 clean sheets and a 99:31 saves:goals allowed ratio kept him ahead of Bailey Peacock-Farrell (8 appearances, 5 starts, 4 goals allowed, 5 CS) all year; still this summer transfer rumors persist. Burnley were the best defensive side by expected goals allowed (38.2 in 46 matches) and goals allowed (35), while limiting shots on target: Burnley goalkeepers led the league with a 75.4% save rate while the defense limited opponents to 134 shots on target, second fewest in the Championship.
That shots on target allowed stat is a key one for the promoted sides this year. Luton (127), Sheffield United (134) and the Clarets (134) were the three most difficult defenses to unlock. The other two promoted sides were slightly more porous (39 goals allowed, each). The knock on Burnley is I don’t know who will be playing defense for them: Ian Maatsen made 38 starts last term but has recently underlined his desire to fight for his place with parent club Chelsea; Man City player Taylor Harwood-Bellis made 31 starts - that’s the Clarets LB and CB with the most minutes last term.
Adam Davies, age 31 (Sheff Utd) GK 18
I have serious concerns about Davies remaining the Blades No. 1 all season, as he hasn’t been an unequivocal first-choice since 2018-19 when he started 42 times for Barnsley in League One. Wesley Foderingham made the ranks at No. 27, and young German-born keeper Jordan Amissah spent last season on loan in League One but made only two league starts for Burton Albion. Amissah recently played for Ghana’s U23s, stands 6’6” and could be in the mix at some point as well. Foderingham lost his spot last year to manager Paul Heckingbottom’s first signing, lending credence to Davies holding the spot to start 2023-24. That’s a messy situation - one may emerge as a solid streaming option but I don’t want either as my starter.
Luton parted ways with last year’s No. 1, Evan Horvath. They, uhhh, don’t have a No. 1 goalkeeper at present. James Shea, he of the one (1) Championship start last season, is I guess the default until they sign someone new. Matt Macey and Jack Walton are regen names that fbref is trying to trick me into believing a real goalkeepers named to a squad sheet last term. I’m not falling for that shit.
Defenders:
If either Maatsen or Harwood-Bellis end up back with Burnley this summer, they would be fairly high up this list. As it is there are not many defenders from any of the three clubs. That will shift as we get closer to the season and will likely be upended by the September 1 transfer deadline. For now there is a clear number one choice and then a bunch of guys that are worth a flyer (or adding to your watch/scout list post-draft).
Tom Lockyer, age 28 (Luton) D 24
Luton Town will just be Luton forever more in these digital pages. Unless I need to sternly remind them that they have deeply disappointed me. Lockyer made 39 starts last season, raising his career total with Luton to 84 Championship starts (88 appearances), scored three goals and added an assist. While the xA was low (only four goals creating actions - net 0.9 xA in that mix), he had 42 shot creating actions which was 1.10/90’. He’s never played above the Championship, and given his health scare this may be more a wishcasting than rooted firmly in the analytics. Luton’s 28 year old captain has been cleared to return to competitive football after collapsing during the play-off final win at Wembley.
"I've had my full heart checked and double checked with all the scans and tests they can do on a heart, and they've all come back positive." - Tom Lockyer
Like the Burnley loan duo above, 25 year old right back James Bree would have made this list but he’s returned to parent club Southampton where he’ll look to earn promotion in consecutive seasons. Bree led the Hatters with 7.6 xA and his four assists were bested only by forward Carlton Morris. Joining Bree in the “if only” category is the Hatters’ 22 year old midfielder Alfie Doughty (age 22 | 2g 5a) who played the wingback position in a midfield five and was handed a default M in most FPL draft leagues. Jamaican international Amari'i Bell didn’t make the ranks, but is on the watch list to see how he fares in the opening matches against Brighton, Burnley and Chelsea.
Anel Ahmedhodzic, age 24 (Sheff Utd) D 42
I told you it was quite a drop. In fairness to Anel Ahmedhodzic, a Bosnia and Herzegovina center back that stands 6’3”, he was probably the more logical choice to slot inside the top 36 defenders - claiming a ‘must start’ designation in 12-team leagues. Instead he’s just outside that but firmly in the realm of starting many weeks and requiring 90%+ ownership. He scored six goals (2 assists) and measure sup as ‘elite’ in the ‘Next 8’ men’s leagues that FBREF uses as the comparative set for Championship.
He owns two Allsvenskan titles with Malmo, made 15 Ligue 1 starts for Bordeaux and has more than 20 international caps. You can draft him and feel good about it.
Just after Anel in the ranks are his squad mates George Baldock (D 44) and John Egan (D 45), with Jayden Bogle (D 49) rounding out the full compliment of Blades. The unit played well, with Baldock - the Greek international - making 33 starts and contributing a goal and three assists. Back in 2019-20 (the first year in the EPL) he earning just under 8 FPL draft points per game as he scored twice and added three assists. The 2020-21 year was less successful for Baldock (under 5 PPG) and the Blades; hopefully he is handed slightly more of a wingback role matching his 2022-23 tactical deployment. Center back rock John Egan led the team in starts (44) and also has Premier League experience. He and Baldock followed the same scoring patters - for Egan is was 8.5 PPG down to less than 4. That disparity has me worried, but I also know this squad is capable of producing 2-3 legitimate FPL starters.
Conor Roberts, age 27 (Burnley) D 46
Roberts is the only Clarets defender to make the list. Kompany’s side is in need of a defensive make-over that hasn’t happened yet leaving Roberts as the only viable option for early-summer drafts. The right-footed wingback scored four goals with six assists across 3,530’ last season. If there was any other stability in this defensive unit he would unquestionably have been a top 36 defender; he may still end up there before your draft but plenty of work remains to be done.
Jordan Beyer, age 23 (Burnley) D 52
The former Borussia Monchengladbach player has joined on a permanent transfer after playing 30 times (29 starts) last season. The center back wasn’t much on offense (1g 2a) but was generally good on the ball.
Such is the nature of moving up a division that we’ll soon learn if he has the skills in his locker to up the blocks and clearances while preserving his exceptional ball distribution, notably in the attacking half. Beyer has better than 20 career Bundesliga starts and I’m not expecting him to wilt, but Burnley open with a rollercoaster schedule: City (H), Luton (a), Villa (H), Spurs (a).
Midfielders:
Iliman Ndiaye, age 23 (Sheff Utd) M 31
Surprising no one, I love Iliman Ndiaye. The French-born, Senegal international who led the Blades with 14 goals and 11 assists. Let Iliman cook.
The only reason he’s not further up the draft board is because of the constant drum of reports that he is headed back to France, most recently with a transfer to Marseille grabbing back page headlines. Make no mistake, this is currently a one-man team. The difference between a Blades side with current Ndaiye and one without is the difference between promotion and relegation. In addition to leading the club in goals (14), assists (11), xG (12.8), xA (6.8) he was 1st in progressive passes received (280) which was as many as the next two attackers combined: Oli McBurnie (154) and Sander Berge (131) - who is DEF 65 and well worth a late-round pick especially if you need a stable, every week starter in your MID4/5 slot. Without Ndaiye in the XI - or a like for like replacement - McBurnie’s draft stock would plummet from F 26 to outside the ranks of FWD3 (36+ in the position ranks).
Welcome back, John Brownhill (M 34) and Oliver Norwood (M 37)!
27 year old Brownhill was dominant for Burnley yet again, making 41 appearances (all starts) and playing 3,574’ en route to seven goals, eight assists, one title and automatic promotion. When last seen in the EPL, the center midfielder was averaging better than 7 PPG despite being limited to two goals and three assists in the Clarets’ most recent relegation campaign. If you’re feeling particularly nostalgic, you could plump for a cheeky late round bid on Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson who hasn’t averaged better than 6 PPG since 2018-19, but was a dominant mid-round force for a couple years there. They’ve also recently signed St. Nathan Redmond.
Oli is getting on in years, a grande olde 32 now, and hasn’t been a dominant offensive force since, well, ever. That said, he’s capable of regularly scoring 7 fantasy points and that is sometimes what you need from a player you’re able to draft in the 8-10th round. There is no upside, limited downside, and zero sex appeal here.
Sexy AF would be 20 year old James MaAfree getting a move from Manchester City back to Turf Moor where he terrorized opposition defenses to the tune of nine goals, three assists in 1,938’.
This is his age 19 season FBREF scouting report.
So far City have publicly denied rumors McAfee may be permitted to leave, and did include him in the travelling party for their summer tour.
Alfie Doughty, age 23 (Luton) M 63
The reports on Doughty are all over the place. His 4.7 xA was third on the club while his 0.20 xA/90’ trailed only McAfee; two goals and five assists both set new marks for his burgeoning professional career. But he only managed 25 starts for the Play-Off winners and in five seasons he’s played for five different clubs including a couple loans and transfers from Charlton to Stoke to Luton. I don’t have high hopes - hence the rank - but if Luton are to rely on last season’s stars this year, it will start with finding additional minutes for Doughty somewhere.
The only other Luton midfielder to generate consideration is Jordan Clark, who will turn 30 in September and has 13 seasons of lower-league football on his resume. I hope he gets a chance in the EPL, but two goals and four assists in 38 Championship appearances is simply not enough to warrant and draft capital this summer.
Forwards:
Compared to how weak this class of promotion midfielders is, the class of promotion forwards is exceptional. Such is the state of draft fantasy that you may well be better rolling the dice on a Cody Gakpo and the points he brings whenever he starts (the old Riyad Mahrez calculation), vs spending a pick on 20-goal scorer Carlton Morris and hoping his game translates to the next level. In all, Morris, Oli McBurnie, Benson Manuel all make the top 36. Nathan Tella would be in the mix between Morris (F 24) and McBurnie (F 26) if he secured a permanent move this summer. They all track similarly as goal-dependent forwards in promotion sides who will need to see shot volume to retain their value. Morris gets the big ratings and confidence bump because he’s actually capable of creating a handful of fantasy assists (or more). His 5.1 xA last season is a bright green flag to draft or bid with a belief that the man who hit 20 goals in 41 starts can at least manage double-figures in the Prem.
Elsewhere in the ranks we have stashed away Anass Zaroury (Burnley, F 42), Wout Weghorst (Burnley, F 45) and Jay Rodriguez (Burnley, F 55). Noticing a trend? The Clarets might have the most ‘depth’ in the shallow end of the pool, but signing another big talent to partner Benson Manuel, and relegate these three names to the free agent pool (where Zaroury and Weghorst would have some streaming value and Jay Rod can drop back down to the Championship for a few more seasons before retirement.
If you missed yesterday’s article explaining the ranks it’s available below. This is the link to the ranks, and if you’re a subscriber here the billing will resume at $5/$30 (or $15) on August 1. Every post will be outside the paywall, so only pay if you’d like to support this nonsense.
Here is the link to the Draft Guide shared doc with position ranks and (soon) Top 200 + Mock Draft Results.