Nottingham Forest Signed All The Players

Origi, Domínguez, Hudson-Odoi, Sangaré amoung 8 in on Deadline Day

The front office of Nottingham Forest was busy on Premier League Transfer Deadline Day with The Garibaldi bringing in eight new faces in the final 24 hours to join the 11 other players already signed this window.

The current picture of the starting XI is anyone’s guess and it is rare that this many names arriving at once ends with each being fully integrated into the first choice team. But the names have caught eyes, both for the reputation of some and the position of others (we see you, Odisseas Vlachodimos). What we don’t know today is which of these players is going to be worth a damn in fantasy. While the waiver wire has likely passed in your league, some leagues will have reserved the waiver wire for the mid-break Tuesday. And those who rushed to acquire the newest names through the doors at City Ground may well find they’ve spend their FAAB or blown early-season waiver position on a player that isn’t going to factor enough to matter.

I’ve rated the player here by my personal level of interest in the signing. Sorry if that’s vague but I think spending on the most time on the most interesting names likely pays the biggest dividends for FPL managers, even if those guys aren’t going to post the biggest scores.

Divock Origi (loan, AC Milan)

We all love Divock Origi and seeing him back in England is a treat all itself. We can all remember one goal he scored (probably that goal that he scored), whether it was for Lille, Liverpool, Wolfsburg, Liverpool or Milan. But who remembers the last time he scored 10 goals in a league season? No one. It’s never happened. The closest the Belgian has ever got to 10 goals was the eight he scored for Lille back in 2014-15. In fact, he only has two seasons in which his goals + assists have hit 10: that ‘14-15 year (8g, 3) and his second season in England when he scored seven goals with three assists across 34 EPL appearances for Liverpool (1,468’).

Somewhere there is a universe where Divock Origi fulfilled his potential and linked with Romelu Lukaku and Eden Hazard to deliver a World Cup (or at least a Euro) to Belgium. This is not that Universe. In this universe, Origi barely made 1,000’ (1,027’) in Serie A last year, snapping a four-year streak of not playing 800+ league minutes for his club. I do not think that Origi is going to unseat Taiwo Awoniyi as the starter but I do think this is direct competition for 21 year old Anthony Elanga, himself signed this summer from Manchester United. Elanga has made 4/4 appearances this season from the bench and managed a goal and an assist in just 89’.

The departure of Brennan Johnson opens a clear starting spot and Elanga, and his fantasy owners, may have thought he’d slot in. In the most recent match it was Danilo moving from the center of midfield to the right wing at the start; there is increased competition in the middle of the pitch now which I’ll cover below but this club is moving to bring in competition everywhere and that’s good for everyone. For now, I have Origi second for the right wing slot, just behind Danilo and directly competing with Elanga; I also have Origi directly behind Awoniyi for the lead striker role. That’s two spots to earn minutes but not clear opportunity. I wouldn’t use a waiver claim on Origi but I’ll be happy to start him from the free agent pool if it turns out he earns a start in the matches against Burnley, Brentford or Luton, or in the GW8 trip to Crystal Palace.

This also further mercs Chris Wood’s value (himself a £15.00m acquisition this summer) for both club and FPL club alike. That purchase looks like millions down the drain.

Ibrahim Sangaré (PSV / Ivory Coast)

This is the move which Forest made that I like the most. Sangaré is a no joke top-tier footballer who will only increase in stature with his play in the Premier League. That he left PSV as the club will play in the Champions League for a side still looking to establish itself in England’s top flight is perhaps a surprise but underlines that the Senegal international must have been sold on Steve Cooper’s vision for his role within the team.

This was Forest’s starting XI for the 0-1 win over Chelsea

The 3-4-2-1 isn’t a particularly heavily utilized formation but it works well for this collection of players and affords fantasy managers the benefit of getting Morgan Gibbs-White maximum attacking opportunities. With Sangaré slotting into the

via FBREF

The comp group for those stats are the “next eight” leagues - so not the big five - and will not directly translate to his role and performance with Forest. Nonetheless, this is the over skill set which Cooper can deploy in the Trees midfield. Apart from the tackles (won 94/163 across last two seasons) and interceptions (61, 74 and 22 in the last three seasons), his passing is on the top end for players in his role with career 88% accuracy on short passes and 86.5% accuracy on medium passes. He has averaged 2.64 shots created per 90’ and as you can see above, his progressive passes per 90’ is nearly eight (7.84). The steep fall in interceptions from 2020-22 to 2022-23 is not concerning to me as he’s already demonstrated it and he more than made up for that decline in other ways. For example, averaged 0.5 shots on target/90’ across the last two seasons as he evolved from 1g/1a in 2020-21 to 3g/2a and 5g/1a in those next two years.

There is plenty to like here, but the sum of the package is a MID4 with a solid floor and limited attacking upside. If he’s still in your free agent pool, I’d add him as my MID5/6 or the second to last player on my bench in the hopes that he becomes a regular 7.5 PPM player.

Nuno Tavares (loan, Arsenal)

The Portugal U-21 defender is perhaps the one player I would have used some Free Agent Acquisition Budget funds on this past week. On loan from Arsenal, he did the parent club proud, stole the back pages and bossed Chelsea in /checks match report/ 19’. Gotta love football.london. The limited minutes of action not withstanding, Tavares does profile as a high value FPL defender in the right tactics, for the right club.

via FBREF

Fortunately he is rated a defender in FPL draft, which means you’ll get the maximum value from his possible role in either the left-side center back in a back three or where he briefly cameo’d on the left flank of the middle four in the 3-4-2-1. Last season with Marseille he scored six goals (4.5 xG) and should have picked up a couple assists (2.6 xA) in 2,349’. He was, for a defender, a volume shooter with 65 shots (17 on target) averaging 2.5 shots/90’. He also contributed to 66 shot creating actions (2.53/90’) while making 32 blocks, 15 interceptions and winning 30/56 tackles. That’s two-way value which can survive a lack of clean sheets. He’s less than 10% selected in FT and should be there to add in GW5 if his name is in the starting team.

Murillo (Corinthians)

This is a ‘one for the future’ signing with the Brazilian center back arriving after a partial season in the Brazil Série A.

With three center backs including current starters Wily Boly (age 32), Joe Worrall (age 26) and Scott McKenna (age 26) all in the mix, this is not an overly aging unit, but certainly one which can use bolstering. Minimal streaming value and the chance of relegation always looming, I don’t think there is a significant keeper value. In deep (14-team or larger) dynasty leagues where you can hold either all or your roster or a set number of players forever, he merits a spot on your watch list.

Callum Hudson-Odoi (Chelsea)

It is apparent from current ownership that many, but not most, FPL managers are higher on Hudson-Odoi’s potential with his third club in three years. That the young (age 22 still, tho a lot closer to 23) attacker is 21% owned with 16% of that coming in the days since his move from Chelsea. His overall skill set certainly has the potential to provide FPL points if given the opportunity and that is where I do not understand the enthusiasm. In a team which finished 16th last season, there were no players which shone brighter than Morgan Gibbs-White, the 23 year old attacking midfielder who often plays through the left wing - coincidentally the same side where Callum plays (or has played) some of his best football.

The addition of CH-O hasn’t happened in a vacuum, where perhaps you would look at this as a like-for-like replacement for the outgoing Brennan Johnson. Already talked about the existing options as well as newly inked Divock Origi. Adding Hudson-Odoi to this mix is great for Steve Cooper, but not ideal for fantasy managers who’ve made a similar of getting him in. In 72 Premier League appearances (32 of them starts), CH-O picked up only four goals and 11 assists; in fact that closely mirrors Gibs-White and his five goals, eight assists last term. If he were able to put together a full season of minutes in which he returned that amount of goals + assists we’d certainly all be happy to have him and start him all year long. But it those returns are your target for him this year, we’re well far apart on our expectations. 0.37 g+a/90’ across his career while joining a team where only three players hit 10+ g+a in 2022-23 (Awoniyi 10+1; Johnson 8+3; Gibbs-White 5+8), does not support that lofty a goal.

Happy to own him, but similar to Origi I’ll be happy to start him from the free agent pool if it turns out he earns a start in the matches against Burnley, Brentford or Luton, or in the GW8 trip to Crystal Palace. Until then I’m not burning a roster spot.

Nicolás Domínguez (Bologna)

I know I started this column by saying it’s rare that a bunch of players all come in and claim starting spots, but both Nicolás Domínguez, a 25 year old midfielder with more than 10 Argentina full international caps, and his potential new central midfield partner Ibrahim Sangaré, himself the proud owner of more than 30 Ivory Coast, could easily be the new starting double-pivot.

In his four years with Bologna, Domínguez made 71 starts with a further 32 substitute appearances in Serie A. His scoring was limited to four goals (coming in just two years) and six assists (across three years), showing the most verve last year with 17 shots on target from 42 attempts, both setting career bests. He won’t be asked to do much scoring for this side and provided he continues to win tackles at a 50% rate or better (49/79 last season) and average better than three (3) tackles + interceptions per 90’, he’ll be fulfilling his role. Better than 75% of his shot creating actions tracked by FBRef have come from passes in open play, and fewer than 10 have come from his own shots or directly from take-ons. That fits the profile of a 4-7 point per match player; he and Sangaré may form and alpha/beta partnership similar to FPL draft CB pairings where one is simply the more valuable down to their role in the tactics while each displays significant real-life value. In this instance, I’m leaned slightly to the Senegal international over his Argentine teammate.

Andrew Omobamidele (Norwich City)

Omobamidele is last on this list, largely through no fault of his own. As another young (21) central defender, there is simply not enough time to go around. Now, a club of this size taking this large of a financial investment on a player a (€23 million) and hand him a substantial contract (a five-year deal which keeps him at The City Ground until at least the summer of 2028) without a path to minutes. To be clear I do think that Omobamidele has a better chance at cracking the starting XI than Murillo this season; he made 34 Championship appearances with the Canaries last year and is a Republic of Ireland international. With that, he is, at best, a streaming option who has shown good care with the ball (92.3% completed middle distance passes is quite good), but not much opportunity to pick up points from interceptions, clearances or blocks.

Granted, stepping from Norwich in the Championship up to Forest in the top flight but his largest sample of minutes was last year with 2,567’ in which he won 27/42 tackles, including 17/34 on opposing dribblers. He did make 22 blocks on shots, and a further 26 interceptions; he won 63/107 aerial duels; all while committing a single (1) defensive error leading to a opponents shot. That’s the profile of a stead presence who can be trusted to marshal opponents, but not necessarily one who holds great FPL value while doing so. Wily Boly remains the standard for the defensive value in this side (19.75 points against Chelsea without a goal, assist or key pass!) with Serge Aurier the next defender to consider rostering and starting.