Open Thread

Underperforming xG and Wolves

Chelsea host Manchester City in the opening fixture of the game week, a match where fantasy managers will be paying as close attention to the starting XIs as the action on the pitch. Mason Mount, Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez have all been scrutinized heavily since the start of the season because of their returns and limited minutes. Ben Chilwell has been relegated fully to the bench and City's defensive cadre have had enforced rotation due to injuries. 

On the other side of that coin, Ferran Torres, Jack Grealish and Romelu Lukaku have enjoyed torrid starts and real life gaffers may not want to upset hot starts, much as that may appease a frothing horde of FPL draft managers. Roster watch is going to be in all four position with Chelsea's No. 1 recovering from an injury which cost him time; Kepa filled in well but starting either shot-stopper against City and expecting big returns is foolish. 

There are plenty of other important story lines to watch this weekend. Both Mike's were on Bang Average this week and we discussed Brighton and Wolves at length. The former has a number of players I've already covered in Subscriber posts this week, so you know, hit this to read them.

Wolves have suffered from a lack of finishing in the final third and Adama Traore's season has been historic to date, but he could use the odd goal or assist, you know? 1.3 xG, 1.0 xA, zero of either on his actual ledger. That extends to some other big names as well. Currently  Diogo Jota (1.6 xA) and Bruno Fernandes (1.5) have the most expected assists without a real life (or even a fantasy) helper. Rom Lukaku (1.2) and Leeds' Raphinha (1.1) are also in that camp.

For the unlucky in front of goal look no farther than Arsenal where Nicolas Pepe (1.9 xG) leads the pack in frustration per 90 minutes. Southampton's Moussa Djeneop (1.4) and Traore are next, with Adama's Wolves teammate Trincao (1.2) just behind. The floodgate may open soon for Wolves, and Pepe deserves better than what he's got so far (I mean, that's basically everything since he moved to London), but Djenepo may be worth watching here. It's possible that 1.4 xG is a small sample outlier, his high for a season in EPL is 2.7 in his first year. But that 2.7 game in less than 1,000 minutes, he scored two goals with two assists in those matches, and he has a eight-goal haul for Standard Liege on his CV from his age 20 season. He's just 2% selected which still feels high considering his 13 total points (3.25 PPM), but add him to your watch list in deeper league where MID remains wafer thin.