Transfer Rumors and Streaming
Waivers have run, pools are set
I don’t have the stomach for the news. The constant churn, the rush to be first and not right, the inexplicable sycophancy and adoration levelled eve when the subject has so clearly be absolved of wrong-doing by those in and around the game. So now Ronaldo comes, or comes back, and he’ll be a force of some reckoning and upset the balance in a squad where balance is hard to achieve and harder to keep. There will be a vacuum where none of his alleged crimes are raised despite the same city having spent a full day (or more) being presented with similar allegations and charges being brought against professional athletes.
There are still four days until the transfer deadline and Tuesday morning waivers will have run before the final ink can dry and under the line deals get done. If Ronaldo does arrive Officially (as in - Officially in YOUR LEAGUE’s waiver pool, you’re obviously spending your WW1 and as much FAAB as you can muster to collect him - morals aside - as there will not be anyone better arriving. With that clear, lets move on to less immediate subjects with far fewer clouds around them.
The Match-ups To Watch
Newcastle hosting Southampton is a vital clash for FPL managers at this early juncture. The hosts have scored twice in the first two matches, goals claimed by Allan Saint-Maximin (that’s good) and Jacob Murphy (that’s really not). But it is the further reintegration of Joe Willock into the squad that is most important here. He was a sensation for the side last term and his eight goals ended up being the second highest tally trailing only Callum Wilson. It’s also true that he significantly over-performed his expected stats (3.6 xG) and posted numbers that are clearly not sustainable across a full season. But he has good value in all game formats (OFPL £6.0 1.6% selected) and particularly good value in draft where he average 8.9 points per match a season ago.
I’m also continuing to cast a wary eye over the Norwich v Leicester game where there are a number of open questions about Kelechi Iheanacho, Harvey Barnes and the whole of the Foxes attack. But the streaming viability of the Norwich midfield and attack is the more pressing concern. Pierre Lees-Melou has been better than average and as good as I expected this summer. 11.2 and 6.1 points in matches against Liverpool and Manchester City leave us hoping for more and the Foxes do not hold the ball as well. A similar situation is unfolding for Billy Gilmous, Milot Rashica and Todd Cantwell. Only Cantwell (85% owned) is heavily selected and the other three can make solid streaming plays.
The final match where I’m paying close attention is last season’s surprise side and this season’s high-flying new boys: Aston Villa vs. Brentford. There are is no shortage of possible FPL options in these two sides with both rostering players across the pitch who can deliver better than average fantasy returns. Specifically I’m looking at how Aston Villa line up, and if they’ll shift their tactics to address Brenford’s defensive posture. This is also going to be an important game to establish if Brentford’s defense is match-up dependent or a legitimate set of weekly starters. Four of the clubs top six scorers are defenders, together with goalkeeper David Raya Martin and forward Sergi Canos. I am curious to see if this is Ivan Toney’s match or if Canos can replicate the 20+ point score he posted against Arsenal. If Canos can, his current ownership of 68% will look woefully inadequate.
Get In Loser, We’re Going Streaming
All of these players are less than 50% selected in Fantrax draft leagues as displayed by that site. I’ve also included ownership and cost for the OFPL because these are players who I think are good match-up plays for this weekend’s clashes.
Mateo Kovacic (45% 15.85 PPM | OFPL £5.0 1.0%)
Kovacic probably isn’t a great option for the trip to Anfield, but he earns another start, and another 70+ minutes, and another 10+ fantasy points, his ownership will go up and he’ll likely not be here for the GW4 clash with Villa. A very tough stretch is ahead for Chelsea with Spurs and City following the Villa tilt. Keep an eye on the ownership numbers which could dip quickly.
Davinson Sanchez (38% 14.65 PPM | £4.5 1.9%)
Watford is the proving ground for flat-track bullying or a steadfast commitment to Nuno’s pragmatic, defense first tactics. If it’s the later then Sanchez moves quickly from the ranks of streaming to DEF3 and regular starter. That’s in all formats - being able to own a starting defender in one of the 3-4 best defensive sides in the EPL doesn’t come along often and regularly remains for long. Spurs are not blessed with a significant number of OFPL options making the defender even more appealing.
Yves Bissouma (58% 11.3 PPM | £4.5 15.3%)
Bissouma likely is only a regular starting in option in deeper scoring formats where the man’s ability to boss a match is evident from the opening whistle. But his price and the upside of the lynchpin role in Brighton have handed him a unique platform for significant ownership in OFPL as well. If he can add any, literally ANY, attacking output to his profile he’ll be close to 100% owned in all formats as managers capitalize on the low cost of acquisition. I’m not holding my breath as in four years at Brighton he’s never managed greater than 1.6 xG or 1.1 xA across a full season.
A Word From The Future
Hello, keeper or dynasty draft league participant. While we in the future have perfected the ability to communicate backwards through what you, a rube, perceive as time, we have not mastered the technology of adding your specific name to these missives. In any event, you in the future wants you to know that Pape Sarr has signed with Spurs and holy cow is this a big signing.
There is not much to be considered for this next season, with the loan back secured. But if he’s eligible to be added and stashed now, the 18 year old should be on your radar. The 25 appearance he’s made with Metz’s first team have shown growth and his continued evolution as a dynamic two-way player.
Next week I’ll be covering the final signings of summer and have scouting reports. Then an international round-up and Open Thread.
Hey John, how much FAAB are you willing to spend on Lookman? WIll you be releasing a transfer round up article to cover other target?
Hi John. Would love your take on how the CR7 Sweepstakes concluded in our league. Result is that Ronaldo went for 140% of FAB. Winning bid traded Raheem + Fornals for Gross + 41% FAB, and spent all 141% FAB for the winning Ronaldo bid. So how does that balance in your estimate? Ronaldo + Gross, and gave up all remaining FAB + Raheem + Fornals.