First Look: Top 75 FPL Midfielders
An elite top tier is chased by 35 fantasy mids who could deliver Top 20 returns
This is the year of the glow up. We’re not just talking about Bukayo Saka continuing his evolution into one of the world’s premier attacking midfielders; not merely a highly anticipated sophomore season from 2023/24’s breakout of Cole Palmer coming in a single, sustained, season-long burst; this is the year that a handful of names who’ve been hovering around the Top 20 midfielders all step to the fore and lock up Top 10 (or even Top 5) returns, and stay there for the foreseeable future.
Player Position Ranks are Live with Top 200 Live Soon
Phil Foden headlines the new class which also includes Martin Odegaard, Morgan Gibbs-White, Anthony Gordon and one of this writer’s perpetual favourites: Eberechi Eze. Foden, of course, has been setting the world alight with club and country for a half-decade, but it was just last season that the 24 year old took on fantasy premier league in the same way. 17, 24, 22, 33 - that is the progression of EPL starts made by Foden and it’s little surprise that the increase in starts fed greater production, which in turn fed more starts, which…you get the idea.
Foden’s 2023/24 Premier League goals (19) nearly equaled his tally from 2021/22 (9) and 2022/23 (11) combined. To that he added a typically excellent 0.25 assists per 90’ (exactly on the number with his career average) but the uptick in minutes to 2,857’ meant he collected eight assists in all.
On the other side of an equally impressive coin was Eze, who dropped in starts, appearances and minutes (2,636’ to 2,055’) but still produced more goals (11, up from 10) while keeping his assists level with four.
The backpages have no shortages of rumors linking the England international with a move up the table, but wherever he lands (with the notable exception of Manchester City), we can and should expect him to flourish once more and solidify himself as a perennial top 10 fantasy midfielder for the next few seasons. At age 26, fresh off a Euro campaign, he is hitting his prime. 4.82 shot creating actions per 90’ a season ago mirrored a massive gain in FPL points per match, which jumped nearly five points to 15.1 PPM. I have that regressing slightly but his overhaul rising on an anticipated 30+ league starts.
This is the first summer when I have looked at another sites expected/projected stats - what I found on FT’s pages was shocking enough that I have added a tab to the shared doc which includes a comparison of the midfielders in the pool at time of publication which looks at last year’s actual scoring, this year’s FT projected scoring, and the difference between the two. Since I do not know how they derive these numbers, I can’t (and won’t) comment on their methodology, but you should be aware of some sizeable differences between their numbers and mine. For example, much as I love Eze, I do not have him as the No. 2 overall player - even if he did move from Crystal Palace to Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham. While I do have a similarly large projected increase in his total points (FT has him moving +104 from 408 to 512), I do not have near triple-digit declines for Bruno Fernandes (-91.75), Saka (-92.75) or Eze possible new teammate Dejan Kulusevski (-76.75).
It is not enough to look superficially at the ranks without considering the difference in the scoring and how. Within the position ranks there are, as always, tiers of players. Anyone who’s been here before knows that the purpose of the tiers is to acknowledge that even within my ranks there are groups of players where any one of them could reasonably be drafted above the others.
Sometimes, I surprise myself
Anthony Gordon is much higher than I thought he would be. The 23 year old has only just been linked with a possible move to Liverpool which may necessitate pulling him from the ranks and reevaluating where he is, but based on remaining in Newcastle and earning similar minutes to next year (2,890’ or the equivalent of 32 90’ outings) he should be very close to repeating his 11 goal, 10 assist season. The winger was efficient (he notched 11 goals on 10.2 xG), landing 29/80 (36.3%) shots on target, and ambitious - pushing his shots/90’ up to 2.49 and setting a career high 143 SCA (4.45 SCA/90’). The current rank is based on current role and team, but a move to Liverpool would not be a downgrade but may reorganize the ‘how’ he gets his points together with the ‘when’.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing is that he was not outstanding in any particular facet of this underlying stats, he was just good at everything. When you contextualize his age and the season Newcastle had, it presents the perfect picture of a player who can still be immensely productive for your fantasy side even if he does not take the next step forward.
Mid-tiers the best tiers?
Mohammed Kudus joins Anthony Gordon as attacking wingers in the EPL who have been linked with Liverpool in recent days, ostensibly as a ‘replacement’ for Mo Salah. Since Salah is still at Liverpool, has a contract for the coming season AND has indicated (or at least reportedly indicated) he is happy to sign an extension on Merseyside, it remains a question of what being Mo’s ‘replacement’ means.
Within the context of fantasy premier league, it is important to note the number of players rated midfielders who are playing the exact same position as many elite players rated forwards. No fewer than six (6) of my current top 10 midfielders could reasonably be rated a forwards and no one should be permitted to complain (for the record: Saka, Palmer, Foden, Eze, Bowen and Gordon). Given his overall performance last season including eight EPL goals with six assists, 100 SCA, 94 crosses (only 21 connected, so could use a bit more work) and a league-best 124 successful dribbles, Kudus finding himself outside the top 20 midfielders points to the impressive depth inside the first five rounds. Questions continue to swirl around West Ham, with the club’s reported clash with sponsor Betway over the pending betting breaches suspension for Lucas Paquetá and limited transfer activity. The biggest name in is 18 year old Luis Guilherme (Palmeiras). Kudus did over-perform slightly on both of his primary counting stats scoring the eight from 5.1 xG and six assists from 3.5 xA; that means West Ham remains Jarrod Bowen-heavy on FPL draft value.
Alejandro Garnacho, leaving aside any remaining fallout from Argentina’s post-Copa triumph racismo, was higher up this list before the arrival of Joshua Zirkzee but only one spot. The explosive young attacker made 30 EPL starts in his age 19 season and contributed a modest seven goals with four assists to a United offense that struggled to find the net and finished with 57 goals, fewest of any top half club. Only Garnacho and Fernandes made the top 50 midfielders in total scoring last season with Casemiro and Scott McTominay (seven wholly unrepeatable goals later) just missing the cut.
Fulham’s duo of Harry Wilson and Andreas Pereira, 29, are hard to peg in the ranks, with the elder Brazilian slotting MID29 after not doing much of anything, but enough of a few things, and still scoring nearly 9 PPM. Pereira under-performed xG (4.6 to 3 goals) while nicking seven assists (7 xA) on 137 shot creating actions. That’s the best raw total for SCA and best /90’ (4.72!) of his career. If Fulham can continue to advance offensively after scoring 55 goals on 52.81 team xG a year ago, Pereira should be a stead MID2/3. For Welsh international Wilson (age 27), a regular starting role would immediately pay dividends. 2023/24 ended with four goals, six assists and 35 Premier League appearances but only 16 starts. His 1,620’ were fewer than half those available and make his g+a look a lot better once contextualized per 90’. 0.56 g+a/90’ on 0.38 xG+xA/90’ would translate to a top 20 midfielder on the cusp of being a top 25 overall player if he can become a regular starter in Marco Silva’s squad this term.
Not for me, Clive
The group of players you’re not seeing make the list are all likely to earn some minutes but in roles that I dislike, with skillsets that rarely permit the brilliance needed to be any more than a streaming option. These are your Scott McTominay, Flynn Downes, Vitaly Janelt or Wataru Endo type players who may be good for 5-6.5 PPM but are unlikely to ever produce 10+ points in a predictable fashion. The bottom third of the v1 ranks at midfield contain plenty of upside players whether it is youth like Samuel Edozie (Southampton) and Simon Adingra (& Hove Albion, Brighton) or post-prime players in defined roles that cannot hit their more youthful heights (Tomas Soucek, West Ham). I would much prefer to end my draft with 2-3 players that are going to deliver on minutes with upside than simply minutes.
Reap the discount of one bad year
Daichi Kamada has joined Crystal Palace after a lackluster season in Serie A with Lazio where he made 29 league appearances but only 17 starts. The goals (2) and assists (2) were down significantly, but the Japan international forward posted solid ‘per 90’ numbers that imply he could flourish if given a regular starting job.
It was just a year ago that Kamada was capping a nine goal, six assist season with Eintracht-Frankfurt in the Bundesliga and securing a free transfer to Lazio. A year on, amid scathing club-supported press about the state of his contract negotiations, the 27 year old was again on the move with a free transfer to London. He’ll play this season at age 28 and I love his opportunity to get 10 goals while costing you a pick closer to the 10th round than the top of the draft.
Are we sensing a pattern?
I have no idea what to do with Conor Gallagher, Noni Madueke and Mykhailo Mudryk.
Rumors have any, all or none of them leaving, starting or struggling to make an impact. Last season Madueke played 1,053’ and scored five goals with two assists which is a furious pace that would put him inside the top 15 overall with a full compliment of minutes. It took Mudryk 500’ (1,576’) to notch the same goals + assists as the Ukraine international started 18 times and featured in 31 EPL matches. The two of them combined didn’t hit Gallagher’s team leading 3,128’ as the England international was the Blues most used player and posted perfectly respectable five goals, eight assists and 10 PPM finishing 14th at the position in 2023/24.
Chelsea’s summer has been wild after electing to drop Trevoh Chalobah from their summer tour of the United States and only days later being drawn into a back page debate of over his Gallagher’s “immanent” transfer to Atlético Madrid (or Newcastle, or…). In any event, I would have Gallagher nestled snugly between Bowen and Gordon if he was with Chelsea and I hope that situation resolves on way or another before your draft gets underway.
Any specific commentary on Palmer vs Saka vs Bruno? Palmer is catching a lot of negative projection if Chelsea regress towards a normal amount of penalties drawn. Bruno potentially has the most room to gain considering your point on total goals right?
Regarding your “midfielders that should be forwards” blurb, we’ve been using the dual position eligibility feature for Mids/Fwds with a specific line at ~14 games from the previous season to qualify. Positions are locked for whole season after draft day.
It’s been very helpful for the wingers. Also lets you do more of a “draft best player on board per your projections” through the 1-4 rounds.