An elite top tier of fantasy premier league midfielders is chased by 35 aspirants to the throne. Suspensions for Sandro Tonali and Lucas Paquetá, an injury return for Emi Buendia and massive question marks around Chelsea trio Conor Gallagher, Noni Madueke and Mykhailo Mudrykto complicate the first version of FPL draft ranks.
Any specific commentary on Palmer vs Saka vs Bruno? Palmer is catching a lot of negative projection if Chelsea regress towards a normal amount of penalties drawn. Bruno potentially has the most room to gain considering your point on total goals right?
A: I don’t understand the idea of Palmer having a ‘sophomore slump’ this year. The Chelsea team, even with a new manager, is demonstrably better with him in it and driving the attack. Did he score nine goals from penalties? He sure did! 9/9 no less. But he also scored 13 goals from 11.1 non-penalty xG and picked up 11 assists on 11.1 xA. That was second best npxG in the squad (Jackson: 18.6, boy did he look bad collecting only 14 goals) and his xA isn’t just the best on Chelsea, it was more than 2nd place Conor Gallagher (5.0) and 3rd place Raheem Sterling (4.5) combined. Here’s where it gets real fun: in his age 21 season he was fifth in the EPL in xA (Bruno, Son, Salah, KDB) and his 0.38 xA/90’ was better than two of the guys ahead of him (Bruno, Son).
Yes, the Blues led the Premier league with 12 penalty kicks attempted but five teams had 9+ including all three of the top teams in the table. Even if Chelsea regress, it seems pretty unlikely they’ll be down at 2022/23 levels (3 PK) given the overall rise in PKs in the EPL last season. Now, lets look at Palmer’s role in producing all of Chelsea’s goals. The team had only 47.2 team xG, exactly in the middle of the pack at 10th. Of that, Palmer was by some margin the most integral. In addition to the 22.2 xG+xA (non-pen version) he also led the club in shot creating actions (162) and SCA/90’ with a massive 5.69. Frankly, I’m not sure how sustainable that is but he’s got loads of room for regression here while remaining an elite fantasy asset.
Martin Ødegaard (220, 6.41) led the EPL last season while Bruno (210, 6.06) and Bukayo Saka (188, 5.80) were the top three in SCA which continues to drive their value and their high level of fantasy productivity. That there is space for growth from ‘exceptional’ to elite for Palmer is also one reason I remain high on him for this season. Personally, I have Ødegaard over Bruno because I vastly prefer watching him play and like to root for the guys on my teams, but the numbers bore out Bruno just nipping him. Worth noting here again, the ranks are all close enough there that I think there is a reasonable argument for taking any of those top five midfielders first. That cuts the other way too, and a reasonable person could discount some of Palmer’s less repeatable production and slide him down to 5th.
Regarding your “midfielders that should be forwards” blurb, we’ve been using the dual position eligibility feature for Mids/Fwds with a specific line at ~14 games from the previous season to qualify. Positions are locked for whole season after draft day.
It’s been very helpful for the wingers. Also lets you do more of a “draft best player on board per your projections” through the 1-4 rounds.
Any specific commentary on Palmer vs Saka vs Bruno? Palmer is catching a lot of negative projection if Chelsea regress towards a normal amount of penalties drawn. Bruno potentially has the most room to gain considering your point on total goals right?
Updated in thread too.
A: I don’t understand the idea of Palmer having a ‘sophomore slump’ this year. The Chelsea team, even with a new manager, is demonstrably better with him in it and driving the attack. Did he score nine goals from penalties? He sure did! 9/9 no less. But he also scored 13 goals from 11.1 non-penalty xG and picked up 11 assists on 11.1 xA. That was second best npxG in the squad (Jackson: 18.6, boy did he look bad collecting only 14 goals) and his xA isn’t just the best on Chelsea, it was more than 2nd place Conor Gallagher (5.0) and 3rd place Raheem Sterling (4.5) combined. Here’s where it gets real fun: in his age 21 season he was fifth in the EPL in xA (Bruno, Son, Salah, KDB) and his 0.38 xA/90’ was better than two of the guys ahead of him (Bruno, Son).
Yes, the Blues led the Premier league with 12 penalty kicks attempted but five teams had 9+ including all three of the top teams in the table. Even if Chelsea regress, it seems pretty unlikely they’ll be down at 2022/23 levels (3 PK) given the overall rise in PKs in the EPL last season. Now, lets look at Palmer’s role in producing all of Chelsea’s goals. The team had only 47.2 team xG, exactly in the middle of the pack at 10th. Of that, Palmer was by some margin the most integral. In addition to the 22.2 xG+xA (non-pen version) he also led the club in shot creating actions (162) and SCA/90’ with a massive 5.69. Frankly, I’m not sure how sustainable that is but he’s got loads of room for regression here while remaining an elite fantasy asset.
Martin Ødegaard (220, 6.41) led the EPL last season while Bruno (210, 6.06) and Bukayo Saka (188, 5.80) were the top three in SCA which continues to drive their value and their high level of fantasy productivity. That there is space for growth from ‘exceptional’ to elite for Palmer is also one reason I remain high on him for this season. Personally, I have Ødegaard over Bruno because I vastly prefer watching him play and like to root for the guys on my teams, but the numbers bore out Bruno just nipping him. Worth noting here again, the ranks are all close enough there that I think there is a reasonable argument for taking any of those top five midfielders first. That cuts the other way too, and a reasonable person could discount some of Palmer’s less repeatable production and slide him down to 5th.
Regarding your “midfielders that should be forwards” blurb, we’ve been using the dual position eligibility feature for Mids/Fwds with a specific line at ~14 games from the previous season to qualify. Positions are locked for whole season after draft day.
It’s been very helpful for the wingers. Also lets you do more of a “draft best player on board per your projections” through the 1-4 rounds.